IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/lmu/muenar/49918.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Climate change impacts in the Middle East and Northern Africa (MENA) region and their implications for vulnerable population groups

Author

Listed:
  • Waha, Katharina
  • Krummenauer, Linda
  • Adams, Sophie
  • Aich, Valentin
  • Baarsch, Florent
  • Coumou, Dim
  • Fader, Marianela
  • Hoff, Holger
  • Jobbins, Guy
  • Marcus, Rachel
  • Mengel, Matthias
  • Otto, Ilona M.
  • Perrette, Mahe
  • Rocha, Marcia
  • Robinson, Alexander
  • Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich

Abstract

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region emerges as one of the hot spots for worsening extreme heat, drought and aridity conditions under climate change. A synthesis of peer-reviewed literature from 2010 to date and own modeling work on biophysical impacts of climate change on selected sectors shows that the region is highly affected by present and future climate change. These biophysical impacts paired with other pressures and a lack of resilience in some countries cause high vulnerabilities within these sectors and for social dimensions in the MENA region. The agricultural sector, of which 70 percent is rain-fed, is highly exposed to changing climatic conditions. This is of critical importance as the agriculture sector is the largest employer in many Arab countries and contributes significantly to national economies. Impacts will be high in a 2 A degrees C world, as, e.g., annual water discharge, already critically low, is projected to drop by another 15-45% (75% in a 4 A degrees C world) and unusual heat extremes projected to affect about one-third of the land area with likely consequences for local food production. As a consequence, deteriorating rural livelihoods associated with declining agricultural productivity will continue to contribute to migration flows, often to urban areas as already observed. The region could be heavily challenged by both rising food and water demand given its projected increase in population that may double by 2070. As a result, the regions already substantial import dependency could increase and thus its vulnerability to agricultural impacts well beyond its country borders. A severe and sustained pressure on resources could contribute to further social unrest in the already unstable political environment that currently characterizes parts of the region. While the particular societal responses to such changes are hard to foresee, it is clear that extreme impacts would constitute unprecedented challenges to the social systems affected.

Suggested Citation

  • Waha, Katharina & Krummenauer, Linda & Adams, Sophie & Aich, Valentin & Baarsch, Florent & Coumou, Dim & Fader, Marianela & Hoff, Holger & Jobbins, Guy & Marcus, Rachel & Mengel, Matthias & Otto, Ilon, 2017. "Climate change impacts in the Middle East and Northern Africa (MENA) region and their implications for vulnerable population groups," Munich Reprints in Economics 49918, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:lmu:muenar:49918
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Abbas Ali Chandio & Waqar Akram & Uzma Bashir & Fayyaz Ahmad & Sultan Adeel & Yuansheng Jiang, 2023. "Sustainable maize production and climatic change in Nepal: robust role of climatic and non-climatic factors in the long-run and short-run," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 1614-1644, February.
    2. Leonardo Zea-Reyes & Veronica Olivotto & Sylvia I. Bergh, 2021. "Understanding institutional barriers in the climate change adaptation planning process of the city of Beirut: vicious cycles and opportunities," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 26(6), pages 1-24, August.
    3. Salma Chaouali & Leticia Sarmento dos Muchangos & Lisa Ito & Akihiro Tokai, 2023. "Prediction of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Wastewater Treatment and Biogas Production in Tunisia," Journal of Sustainable Development, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 15(4), pages 1-49, May.
    4. Lucas Sato & Nourjelha Mohamed, 2022. "The role of social insurance schemes in addressing the risks faced by agricultural workers in the Middle East and North Africa," Research Report 80, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth.
    5. Aguilera, Eduardo & Díaz-Gaona, Cipriano & García-Laureano, Raquel & Reyes-Palomo, Carolina & Guzmán, Gloria I. & Ortolani, Livia & Sánchez-Rodríguez, Manuel & Rodríguez-Estévez, Vicente, 2020. "Agroecology for adaptation to climate change and resource depletion in the Mediterranean region. A review," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    6. Zolfaghari, Mehdi & Jariani, Farzaneh, 2020. "Water-Energy-Food Nexus in the Middle East and North African Countries (MENA)," MPRA Paper 104583, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Philip E. Agbonifo, 2022. "Socio-economic implications of poor environmental management: a framework on the Niger Delta questions," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 2453-2470, February.
    8. Khalifa, Sherin & Henning, Christian H. C. A., 2020. "Climate change and civil conflict in SSA and MENA: The same phenomena, but different mechanisms?," Working Papers of Agricultural Policy WP2020-03, University of Kiel, Department of Agricultural Economics, Chair of Agricultural Policy.
    9. repec:ocp:dbbook:book:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Ayoub Al-Jawaldeh & Maya Nabhani & Mandy Taktouk & Lara Nasreddine, 2022. "Climate Change and Nutrition: Implications for the Eastern Mediterranean Region," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(24), pages 1-27, December.
    11. Baghdadi, F. & Rauktis, M.E. & Hands, C. & John, A. & Khanom, A. & El Mhamdi, S. & Soussi, A. & Snooks, H., 2024. "Using a systems perspective to examine child protection systems and practice: A scoping review on child abandonment and institutionalisation in the Maghreb," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    12. Shlomit Paz & Azeem Majeed & George K. Christophides, 2021. "Climate change impacts on infectious diseases in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East (EMME)—risks and recommendations," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 169(3), pages 1-17, December.
    13. Ali Ahmadalipour & Hamid Moradkhani & Mukesh Kumar, 2019. "Mortality risk from heat stress expected to hit poorest nations the hardest," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 152(3), pages 569-579, March.
    14. Eid-Sabbagh, K. & Roukoz, S. & Nassif, Marie-Helene & Velpuri, Naga & Mateo-Sagasta, Javier, 2022. "Analysis of water reuse potential for irrigation in Lebanon," IWMI Reports 329170, International Water Management Institute.
    15. Mohamed E. Hereher, 2022. "Climate Change during the Third Millennium—The Gulf Cooperation Council Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-19, October.
    16. Baarsch, Florent & Granadillos, Jessie R. & Hare, William & Knaus, Maria & Krapp, Mario & Schaeffer, Michiel & Lotze-Campen, Hermann, 2020. "The impact of climate change on incomes and convergence in Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    17. Sergio René Araujo‐Enciso & Thomas Fellmann, 2020. "Yield Variability and Harvest Failures in Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan and Their Possible Impact on Food Security in the Middle East and North Africa," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(2), pages 493-516, June.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:lmu:muenar:49918. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Tamilla Benkelberg (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.