IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/endesu/v23y2021i5d10.1007_s10668-020-00897-6.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Preference heterogeneity, neighbourhood effects and basic services: logit kernel models for farmers’ climate adaptation in Ethiopia

Author

Listed:
  • Stefano Mainardi

    (Uniwersytet Marii Curie-Skłodowskiej
    Technical University of Ostrava)

Abstract

Climate change adaptations by farmers are usually analysed with multinomial choice models, which ignore heterogeneity and ‘mixing’ across alternatives and individuals. Moreover, not enough attention is devoted to basic utilities other than extension services. Aimed at a reassessment that accounts for these issues, this paper formulates conditional and mixed logit (logit kernel) models with/without neighbourhood effects. In particular, a spatial logit kernel allows capturing behavioural differences and interdependence between neighbours. The analysis was based on a survey covering 162 villages of the Ethiopian Nile basin, with 50 farm households—multistage stratified randomly sampled—in each of 20 districts (woredas). Supplementary information concerned linear programming solutions on adaptation choice attributes in smallholder farming areas, under two scenarios. Lastly, cross-district aid emergency allocation priorities for food security and agriculture, among others, served as yardsticks for comparison with prevailing adjustment decisions and location characteristics. Closeness to farms with more educated farmers and larger plot sizes turned out to increase the likelihood of a household opting to sell livestock and land along with combined measures of farmland enhancement. Logit kernel outperformed conditional logit in explanatory power, and random parameters highlighted individual and group heterogeneity in preferences. Access to electricity, healthcare, and reliable and safe water supply strengthen farmers’ ability to respond to climate change. Specific adaptation measures can contribute in turn to improve the capacity of rural communities to mitigate the severity of health and nutrition crises. By contrast, in woredas hit by recurrent epidemics and droughts, many farmers appear to be unable to resort even to basic adaptation measures, such as planting of new trees. This prompts an additional need for institutional support and infrastructure development.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefano Mainardi, 2021. "Preference heterogeneity, neighbourhood effects and basic services: logit kernel models for farmers’ climate adaptation in Ethiopia," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(5), pages 6869-6912, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:endesu:v:23:y:2021:i:5:d:10.1007_s10668-020-00897-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s10668-020-00897-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10668-020-00897-6
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10668-020-00897-6?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Louis Grange & Felipe González & Ignacio Vargas & Rodrigo Troncoso, 2015. "A Logit Model With Endogenous Explanatory Variables and Network Externalities," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 89-116, March.
    2. Stephen Gibbons & Henry G. Overman, 2012. "Mostly Pointless Spatial Econometrics?," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(2), pages 172-191, May.
    3. Calzadilla, Alvaro & Zhu, Tingju & Rehdanz, Katrin & Tol, Richard S.J. & Ringler, Claudia, 2013. "Economywide impacts of climate change on agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 150-165.
    4. Mhairi A Gibson & Eshetu Gurmu, 2012. "Rural to Urban Migration Is an Unforeseen Impact of Development Intervention in Ethiopia," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(11), pages 1-8, November.
    5. Bhat, Chandra R., 2001. "Quasi-random maximum simulated likelihood estimation of the mixed multinomial logit model," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 677-693, August.
    6. John Gibson & David McKenzie, 2007. "Using Global Positioning Systems in Household Surveys for Better Economics and Better Policy," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 22(2), pages 217-241, September.
    7. Ndambiri, Hilary K. & Ritho, Cecilia N. & Mbogoh, Stephen G., 2013. "An Evaluation Of Farmers’ Perceptions Of And Adaptation To The Effects Of Climate Change In Kenya," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 1(1), pages 1-22, July.
    8. Rajagopal, 2014. "Technology Diffusion and Adoption," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Architecting Enterprise, chapter 6, pages 148-173, Palgrave Macmillan.
    9. Fosgerau, Mogens & Bierlaire, Michel, 2007. "A practical test for the choice of mixing distribution in discrete choice models," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 41(7), pages 784-794, August.
    10. Maarten van Ham & David Manley, 2012. "Neighbourhood Effects Research at a Crossroads. Ten Challenges for Future Research Introduction," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 44(12), pages 2787-2793, December.
    11. Alan de Brauw & Valerie Mueller, 2012. "Do Limitations in Land Rights Transferability Influence Mobility Rates in Ethiopia?," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 21(4), pages 548-579, August.
    12. Train,Kenneth E., 2009. "Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521766555, September.
    13. Brownstone, David & Train, Kenneth, 1998. "Forecasting new product penetration with flexible substitution patterns," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1-2), pages 109-129, November.
    14. Campbell, Danny, 2007. "Combining mixed logit models and random effects models to identify the determinants of willingness to pay for rural landscape improvements," 81st Annual Conference, April 2-4, 2007, Reading University, UK 7975, Agricultural Economics Society.
    15. Molden, David, 2007. "Water for food, water for life: a comprehensive assessment of water management in agriculture: summary. In Russian," IWMI Books, Reports H041260, International Water Management Institute.
    16. Filip Matêjka & Alisdair McKay, 2015. "Rational Inattention to Discrete Choices: A New Foundation for the Multinomial Logit Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(1), pages 272-298, January.
    17. Danny Campbell, 2007. "Willingness to Pay for Rural Landscape Improvements: Combining Mixed Logit and Random‐Effects Models," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(3), pages 467-483, September.
    18. Hess, Stephane & Train, Kenneth, 2017. "Correlation and scale in mixed logit models," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 1-8.
    19. Ahmed El-Geneidy & David Levinson, 2011. "Place Rank: Valuing Spatial Interactions," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 11(4), pages 643-659, December.
    20. David Revelt & Kenneth Train, 1998. "Mixed Logit With Repeated Choices: Households' Choices Of Appliance Efficiency Level," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 647-657, November.
    21. Berger, Thomas, 2015. "Adaptation of farm-households to increasing climate variability in Ethiopia: Bioeconomic modeling of innovation diffusion and policy interventions," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 229062, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    22. Kathleen P. Bell & Timothy J. Dalton, 2007. "Spatial Economic Analysis in Data‐Rich Environments," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(3), pages 487-501, September.
    23. Pia Nilsson, 2019. "Spatial spillovers and households’ involvement in the non-farm sector: evidence from rural Rwanda," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(5), pages 731-740, May.
    24. Anna Gloria Billé & Giuseppe Arbia, 2019. "Spatial Limited Dependent Variable Models: A Review Focused On Specification, Estimation, And Health Economics Applications," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(5), pages 1531-1554, December.
    25. H. Allen Klaiber & Roger H. von Haefen, 2019. "Do Random Coefficients and Alternative Specific Constants Improve Policy Analysis? An Empirical Investigation of Model Fit and Prediction," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 73(1), pages 75-91, May.
    26. Cristian Rogério Foguesatto & Felipe Dalzotto Artuzo & Edson Talamini & João Armando Dessimon Machado, 2020. "Understanding the divergences between farmer’s perception and meteorological records regarding climate change: a review," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 1-16, January.
    27. Molden, David, 2007. "Water for food, water for life: a comprehensive assessment of water management in agriculture: summary. In Arabic," IWMI Books, Reports H041261, International Water Management Institute.
    28. Maarten van Ham & David Manley, 2012. "Neighbourhood Effects Research at a Crossroads: Ten Challenges for Future Research," RatSWD Working Papers 204, German Data Forum (RatSWD).
    29. Ifejika Speranza, Chinwe, 2010. "Resilient adaptation to climate change in African agriculture," IDOS Studies, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS), volume 54, number 54, July.
    30. Anas, Alex, 1983. "Discrete choice theory, information theory and the multinomial logit and gravity models," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 13-23, February.
    31. Amogne Asfaw & Belay Simane & Amare Bantider & Ali Hassen, 2019. "Determinants in the adoption of climate change adaptation strategies: evidence from rainfed-dependent smallholder farmers in north-central Ethiopia (Woleka sub-basin)," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 21(5), pages 2535-2565, October.
    32. Richard Tol, 2013. "The economic impact of climate change in the 20th and 21st centuries," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(4), pages 795-808, April.
    33. David Hensher & John Rose & William Greene, 2005. "The implications on willingness to pay of respondents ignoring specific attributes," Transportation, Springer, vol. 32(3), pages 203-222, May.
    34. Meskerem Abi & Aad Kessler & Peter Oosterveer & Degefa Tolossa, 2020. "How farmers’ characteristics influence spontaneous spreading of stone bunds in the highlands of Ethiopia: a case study in the Girar Jarso woreda," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 317-335, January.
    35. Algers, S. & Bergstrom, P. & Dahlberg, M. & Dillen, J.L., 1998. "Mixed Logit Estimation of the Value of Travel Time," Papers 1998:15, Uppsala - Working Paper Series.
    36. Mariel, Petr & Ayala, Amaya de & Hoyos, David & Abdullah, Sabah, 2013. "Selecting random parameters in discrete choice experiment for environmental valuation: A simulation experiment," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 7(C), pages 44-57.
    37. Serdar Yilmaz & Varsha Venugopal, 2008. "Local Government Discretion and Accountability in Ethiopia," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper0838, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
    38. Tülin Erdem & Michael Keane & Baohong Sun, 2008. "The impact of advertising on consumer price sensitivity in experience goods markets," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 139-176, June.
    39. Conley, Timothy G. & Topa, Giorgio, 2007. "Estimating dynamic local interactions models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(1), pages 282-303, September.
    40. Jan (J.) Rouwendal, 2017. "Specification Tests for The Multinomial Logit Model Revisited: The Role of Alternative-Specific Constants," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 17-068/VIII, Tinbergen Institute, revised 29 Jan 2018.
    41. Smirnov, Oleg A., 2010. "Modeling spatial discrete choice," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(5), pages 292-298, September.
    42. Molden, David, 2007. "Water for food, water for life: a comprehensive assessment of water management in agriculture," IWMI Books, Reports H040193, International Water Management Institute.
    43. Chandra Bhat & Ipek Sener, 2009. "A copula-based closed-form binary logit choice model for accommodating spatial correlation across observational units," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 243-272, September.
    44. Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), 2015. "Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 5, number 5.
    45. Vincent van den Berg & Eric Kroes & Erik T. Verhoef, 2010. "Biases in Willingness-To-Pay Measures from Multinomial Logit Estimates due to Unobserved Heterogeneity," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 10-014/3, Tinbergen Institute.
    46. Sener, Ipek N. & Pendyala, Ram M. & Bhat, Chandra R., 2011. "Accommodating spatial correlation across choice alternatives in discrete choice models: an application to modeling residential location choice behavior," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 294-303.
    47. Baylis, Kathy & Ham, Andres, 2015. "How important is spatial correlation in randomized controlled trials?," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205586, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    48. Bhat, Chandra R. & Guo, Jessica, 2004. "A mixed spatially correlated logit model: formulation and application to residential choice modeling," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 147-168, February.
    49. Topa, Giorgio & Zenou, Yves, 2015. "Neighborhood and Network Effects," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 561-624, Elsevier.
    50. Molden, David, 2007. "Water for food, water for life: a comprehensive assessment of water management in agriculture: summary," IWMI Books, Reports H039769, International Water Management Institute.
    51. Clemens Breisinger & Tingju Zhu & Perrihan Al Riffai & Gerald Nelson & Richard Robertson & Jose Funes & Dorte Verner, 2013. "Economic Impacts Of Climate Change In Syria," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(01), pages 1-30.
    52. David Hensher & William Greene, 2003. "The Mixed Logit model: The state of practice," Transportation, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 133-176, May.
    53. Thomas Steenburgh & Andrew Ainslie, 2010. "Substitution Patterns of the Random Coefficients Logit," Harvard Business School Working Papers 10-053, Harvard Business School.
    54. Luisa Alamá-Sabater & Andrés Artal-Tur & José Navarro-Azorín, 2011. "Industrial location, spatial discrete choice models and the need to account for neighbourhood effects," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 47(2), pages 393-418, October.
    55. Oecd, 2009. "Climate Change and Africa," OECD Journal: General Papers, OECD Publishing, vol. 2009(1), pages 5-35.
    56. Michael Creel, 2004. "Modified Hausman tests for inefficient estimators," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(21), pages 2373-2376.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. De Ayala Bilbao, Amaya & Hoyos Ramos, David & Mariel Chladkova, Petr, 2012. "Landscape valuation through discrete choice experiments: Current practice and future research reflections," BILTOKI 1134-8984, Universidad del País Vasco - Departamento de Economía Aplicada III (Econometría y Estadística).
    2. Haghani, Milad & Bliemer, Michiel C.J. & Hensher, David A., 2021. "The landscape of econometric discrete choice modelling research," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
    3. Bliemer, Michiel C.J. & Rose, John M., 2013. "Confidence intervals of willingness-to-pay for random coefficient logit models," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 199-214.
    4. Campbell, Danny, 2007. "Combining mixed logit models and random effects models to identify the determinants of willingness to pay for rural landscape improvements," 81st Annual Conference, April 2-4, 2007, Reading University, UK 7975, Agricultural Economics Society.
    5. de Ayala, Amaia & Hoyos, David & Mariel, Petr, 2015. "Suitability of discrete choice experiments for landscape management under the European Landscape Convention," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 79-96.
    6. Campbell, Danny & Hutchinson, W. George & Scarpa, Riccardo, 2006. "Using Discrete Choice Experiments to Derive Individual-Specific WTP Estimates for Landscape Improvements under Agri-Environmental Schemes: Evidence from the Rural Environment Protection Scheme in Irel," Sustainability Indicators and Environmental Valuation Working Papers 12220, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    7. Abildtrup, Jens & Garcia, Serge & Olsen, Søren Bøye & Stenger, Anne, 2013. "Spatial preference heterogeneity in forest recreation," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 67-77.
    8. Campbell, Danny & Hutchinson, W. George & Scarpa, Riccardo, 2006. "Lexicographic Preferences in Discrete Choice Experiments: Consequences on Individual-Specific Willingness to Pay Estimates," Sustainability Indicators and Environmental Valuation Working Papers 12224, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    9. Haghani, Milad & Sarvi, Majid & Shahhoseini, Zahra, 2015. "Accommodating taste heterogeneity and desired substitution pattern in exit choices of pedestrian crowd evacuees using a mixed nested logit model," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 58-68.
    10. Bliemer, Michiel C.J. & Rose, John M., 2010. "Construction of experimental designs for mixed logit models allowing for correlation across choice observations," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 44(6), pages 720-734, July.
    11. Bhat, Chandra R., 2011. "The maximum approximate composite marginal likelihood (MACML) estimation of multinomial probit-based unordered response choice models," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 923-939, August.
    12. Danny Campbell & George Hutchinson & Riccardo Scarpa, 2006. "Using mixed logit models to derive individual-specific WTP estimates for landscape improvements under agri-environmental schemes: evidence from the Rural Environment Protection Scheme in Ireland," Working Papers 0607, Rural Economy and Development Programme,Teagasc.
    13. Stephane Hess, 2014. "Latent class structures: taste heterogeneity and beyond," Chapters, in: Stephane Hess & Andrew Daly (ed.), Handbook of Choice Modelling, chapter 14, pages 311-330, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    14. Nunez, Paula & Colmenero, Alberto, 2011. "Ague, agricultura y desarrollo: avances y retos para la reduccion de la pobreza," Revista Espanola de Estudios Agrosociales y Pesqueros, Ministerio de Medio Ambiente, Rural y Marino (formerly Ministry of Agriculture), issue 230, pages 1-28.
    15. Yao, Richard T. & Scarpa, Riccardo & Turner, James A. & Barnard, Tim D. & Rose, John M. & Palma, João H.N. & Harrison, Duncan R., 2014. "Valuing biodiversity enhancement in New Zealand's planted forests: Socioeconomic and spatial determinants of willingness-to-pay," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 90-101.
    16. Danny Campbell & George Hutchinson & Riccardo Scarpa, 2006. "Integrating landscape improvement indices and discrete choice experiments: evidence from the Rural Environment Protection Scheme in Ireland," Working Papers 0609, Rural Economy and Development Programme,Teagasc.
    17. Bijan J. Borah, 2006. "A mixed logit model of health care provider choice: analysis of NSS data for rural India," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(9), pages 915-932, September.
    18. Fosgerau, Mogens & Bierlaire, Michel, 2007. "A practical test for the choice of mixing distribution in discrete choice models," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 41(7), pages 784-794, August.
    19. Paleti, Rajesh, 2018. "Generalized multinomial probit Model: Accommodating constrained random parameters," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 248-262.
    20. Christopher O. AKINBILE & Andrew E. ERAZUA & Toju E. BABALOLA & Fidelis O. AJIBADE, 2016. "Environmental implications of animal wastes pollution on agricultural soil and water quality," Soil and Water Research, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 11(3), pages 172-180.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate adaptation; Conditional and mixed logit; Spatial interdependence; Basic utilities; Ethiopia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • Q12 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:endesu:v:23:y:2021:i:5:d:10.1007_s10668-020-00897-6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.