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The labor market channel of macroeconomic uncertainty

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  • Elisa Guglielminetti

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

Uncertainty has recently become a major concern for policymakers and academics. Spikes in uncertainty are often associated with recessions and have detrimental effects on the aggregate economy. This paper analyzes the effects of uncertainty on firms' hiring and investment decisions, both empirically and theoretically. Empirically, VAR estimates show the negative effects of uncertainty on economic performance and in particular on the labor market. Counterfactual experiments highlight the significant role of hiring decisions as a transmission channel for uncertainty. The empirical findings are rationalized through a DSGE model with search and matching frictions in the labor market and stochastic volatility. The model is able to replicate the observed co-movement among consumption, investment, output and labor market outcomes generated by an uncertainty shock. Price stickiness greatly amplifies the reaction of the economy. Simulations show that monetary policy can mitigate the adverse effects of uncertainty by adopting a strong anti-inflationary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Elisa Guglielminetti, 2016. "The labor market channel of macroeconomic uncertainty," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1068, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1068_16
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    Cited by:

    1. Kovalenko, Tim, 2021. "Uncertainty shocks and employment fluctuations in Germany: The role of establishment size," Discussion Papers 119, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Chair of Labour and Regional Economics.
    2. Laurent Ferrara & Stéphane Lhuissier & Fabien Tripier, 2018. "Uncertainty Fluctuations: Measures, Effects and Macroeconomic Policy Challenges," Financial and Monetary Policy Studies, in: Laurent Ferrara & Ignacio Hernando & Daniela Marconi (ed.), International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis, pages 159-181, Springer.
    3. David Loschiavo, 2021. "Household debt and income inequality: Evidence from Italian survey data," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 67(1), pages 61-103, March.
    4. Gamberoni, Elisa & Giordano, Claire & Lopez-Garcia, Paloma, 2016. "Capital and labour (mis)allocation in the euro area: some stylized facts and determinants," Working Paper Series 1981, European Central Bank.
    5. Samil Oh & Thepthida Sopraseuth, 2017. "Firm entry, Search and Matching in a Small Open Economy Faced with Uncertainty Shocks: The case of Korea," THEMA Working Papers 2017-27, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    6. Andreas Dibiasi & Samad Sarferaz, 2020. "Measuring Macroeconomic Uncertainty: The Labor Channel of Uncertainty from a Cross-Country Perspective," Papers 2006.09007, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2020.
    7. Tosapol Apaitan & Pongsak Luangaram & Pym Manopimoke, 2022. "Uncertainty in an emerging market economy: evidence from Thailand," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 933-989, March.
    8. Dibiasi, Andreas & Sarferaz, Samad, 2023. "Measuring macroeconomic uncertainty: A cross-country analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    9. Bonciani, Dario & Ricci, Martino, 2020. "The international effects of global financial uncertainty shocks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    10. Tim Kovalenko, 2021. "Uncertainty shocks and employment fluctuations in Germany: the role of establishment size," Working Papers 212, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).
    11. Bańbura, Marta & Albani, Maria & Ambrocio, Gene & Bursian, Dirk & Buss, Ginters & de Winter, Jasper & Gavura, Miroslav & Giordano, Claire & Júlio, Paulo & Le Roux, Julien & Lozej, Matija & Malthe-Thag, 2018. "Business investment in EU countries," Occasional Paper Series 215, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    uncertainty shocks; labor market; search; DSGE model; business cycle; survey data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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