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Uncertainty shocks in emerging economies

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  • Mirela Miescu

Abstract

The paper investigates the effects of uncertainty shocks in emerging economies (EMEs). We construct a global uncertainty indicator as well as country uncertainty measures for fifteen relatively small emerging economies. We adopt an instrumental variable approach to identify exogenous uncertainty shocks in the EMEs. To deal with the data limitations specific to emerging countries, we develop a new Bayesian algorithm to estimate a proxy panel structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model. We find that uncertainty shocks in EMEs cause severe falls in GDP and stock price indexes, generate inflation, depreciate the currency and are not followed by a subsequent overshoot in activity. Estimation implies considerable heterogeneity across economies in the response to uncertainty shocks which can be (in part) explained by country characteristics.

Suggested Citation

  • Mirela Miescu, 2019. "Uncertainty shocks in emerging economies," Working Papers 277077821, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:lan:wpaper:277077821
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    Cited by:

    1. Alina Bobasu & Lucia Quaglietti & Martino Ricci, 2024. "Tracking Global Economic Uncertainty: Implications for the Euro Area," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 72(2), pages 820-857, June.
    2. Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo, 2021. "Global Uncertainty," CESifo Working Paper Series 8885, CESifo.
    3. Peersman, Gert & Rüth, Sebastian K. & Van der Veken, Wouter, 2021. "The interplay between oil and food commodity prices: Has it changed over time?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    4. Afees A. Salisu & Rangan Gupta & Ahamuefula E. Ogbonna, 2020. "Point and Density Forecasting of Macroeconomic and Financial Uncertainties of the United States," Working Papers 202058, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    5. Afees A. Salisu & Rangan Gupta & Ahamuefula E. Ogbonna, 2021. "Point and density forecasting of macroeconomic and financial uncertainties of the USA," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(4), pages 700-707, July.
    6. Beckmann, Joscha & Davidson, Sharada Nia & Koop, Gary & Schüssler, Rainer, 2023. "Cross-country uncertainty spillovers: Evidence from international survey data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    7. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2021_001 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Tosapol Apaitan & Pongsak Luangaram & Pym Manopimoke, 2022. "Uncertainty in an emerging market economy: evidence from Thailand," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 933-989, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Uncertainty shocks; proxy SVAR; Emerging economies; Panel data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

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