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Effect of credibility and reputation on discretionary fiscal policy: empirical evidence from Colombia

Author

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  • Juan Camilo Galvis Ciro

    (Universidad Pontifica Bolivariana)

  • Helder Ferreira de Mendonça

    (Fluminense Federal University and National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq))

Abstract

This paper relates to the literature on the possible effect of inflation targeting on fiscal discipline in developing countries. In particular, we present empirical evidence to address this issue based on the Colombian experience. This study relies on two main issues. The first is to verify whether the adoption of inflation targeting in Colombia affected the discretionary fiscal component in the period 2004–2014. The second issue is to analyze whether the monetary credibility amplified the effect of the monetary policy on changes in the discretionary fiscal component. The results denote that inflation targeting causes an impact on fiscal policy in Colombia. In particular, the greater monetary credibility the less change in discretionary fiscal component is observed.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Camilo Galvis Ciro & Helder Ferreira de Mendonça, 2017. "Effect of credibility and reputation on discretionary fiscal policy: empirical evidence from Colombia," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 1529-1552, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:53:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s00181-016-1177-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-016-1177-2
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    Cited by:

    1. Juan Camilo Anzoátegui-Zapata & Juan Camilo Galvis-Ciro, 2020. "Disagreements in Consumer Inflation Expectations: Empirical Evidence for a Latin American Economy," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 16(2), pages 99-122, November.
    2. Iregui, Ana María & Núñez, Héctor M. & Otero, Jesús, 2021. "Testing the efficiency of inflation and exchange rate forecast revisions in a changing economic environment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 187(C), pages 290-314.
    3. Juan Camilo Galvis Ciro, 2018. "La inconsistencia temporal y la inflación: evidencias empíricas para la economía colombiana," Ensayos de Economía 16777, Universidad Nacional de Colombia Sede Medellín.
    4. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Nicolay, Rodolfo Tomás da Fonseca & Acar, Tatiana, 2019. "Do fiscal communication and clarity of fiscal announcements affect public debt uncertainty? Evidence from Brazil," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 38-60.
    5. Gabriel Caldas Montes & Paulo henrique Luna, 2021. "Effects of discretionary fiscal policy and fiscal communication on fiscal credibility: Empirical evidence from Brazil," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 41(3), pages 1486-1500.
    6. Juan Camilo Galvis Ciro & Juan Camilo Anzoátegui Zapata, 2019. "Disagreement in inflation expectations: empirical evidence for Colombia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(40), pages 4411-4424, August.
    7. Juan Camilo Galvis Ciro & Guillermo David Hincapié Vélez, 2018. "Effect of Banking Concentration on the Lending Channel: evidence from Colombia," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 38(4), pages 2254-2265.
    8. Gabriel Caldas Montes & Iven Silva Valpassos, 2018. "Discretionary fiscal policy and sovereign risk," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 38(3), pages 1343-1365.
    9. Juan Camilo Galvis-Ciro & Juan Camilo Anzoátegui-Zapata & Cristina Isabel Ramos-Barroso, 2022. "The Effect of Communication and Credibility on Fiscal Disagreement: Empirical Evidence from Colombia," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 18(3), pages 215-238, November.
    10. de Freitas Val, Flávio & Klotzle, Marcelo Cabus & Pinto, Antonio Carlos Figueiredo & Gaglianone, Wagner Piazza, 2017. "Estimating the credibility of Brazilian monetary policy using a Kalman filter approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 37-53.
    11. Juan Camilo Anzoategui-Zapata & Juan Camilo Galvis-Ciro, 2021. "Effects of fiscal credibility on inflation expectations: evidence from an emerging economy," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 45(1), pages 125-148.
    12. Gabriel Caldas Montes & Paulo Henrique Lourenço Luna, 2022. "Do fiscal opacity, fiscal impulse, and fiscal credibility affect disagreement about economic growth forecasts? Empirical evidence from Brazil considering the period of political instability and presid," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(4), pages 2356-2393, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Discretionary fiscal policy; Fiscal impulse; Inflation targeting; Credibility; Reputation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General

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