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Transparency and inflation: What is the effect on the Brazilian economy?

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  • de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira
  • de Siqueira Galveas, Karine Alves

Abstract

This paper presents empirical evidence concerning the effect of central bank transparency on inflation considering the Brazilian case after the adoption of inflation targeting. Two indices for measuring transparency, based on forward-looking and backwardlooking views, are developed. Furthermore, empirical evidence is divided into three steps: (i) analysis of simple correlation through scatterplot diagrams; (ii) use of VAR models; and (iii) estimation of different specifications of the Phillips curve using OLS and GMM based on the structural model used by the Central Bank of Brazil (CBB). The findings allow one to conjecture that inflation expectations are well coordinated by the CBB. In short, the transparency of information by the CBB is a very important tool for guiding public expectations and thus contributes to maintain inflation under control.

Suggested Citation

  • de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & de Siqueira Galveas, Karine Alves, 2013. "Transparency and inflation: What is the effect on the Brazilian economy?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 69-80.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:37:y:2013:i:1:p:69-80
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2012.06.003
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    Cited by:

    1. Juan Camilo Galvis Ciro & Helder Ferreira de Mendonça, 2017. "Effect of credibility and reputation on discretionary fiscal policy: empirical evidence from Colombia," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 1529-1552, December.
    2. Helder Ferreira de Mendonça & Gabriela Elise Auel, 2016. "The effect of monetary and fiscal credibility on public debt: empirical evidence from the Brazilian economy," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(11), pages 816-821, July.
    3. Pires Tiberto, Bruno & Oliveira de Moraes, Claudio & Pio Corrêa, Paloma, 2020. "Does transparency of central banks communication affect credit market? Empirical evidence for advanced and emerging markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    4. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira, 2018. "Credibility and Inflation Expectations: What we can tell from seven emerging economies?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1165-1181.
    5. Gabriel C Montes & Caio F Ferreira, 2022. "Monetary policy opacity and disagreements in expectations about variables under central bank control," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 42(2), pages 703-721.
    6. Felipe Santos Tostes & Helder Ferreira De Mendonça, 2016. "Credibility On Pass-Through In Brazil," Anais do XLII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 42nd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 022, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    7. Athina Zervoyianni & Athanasios Anastasiou & Andreas Anastasiou, 2014. "Does central bank independence really matter? Re-assessing the role of the independence of monetary policy-makers in macroeconomic outcomes," International Journal of Economics and Business Research, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 8(4), pages 427-473.
    8. de Guimarães e Souza, Gustavo José & de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & de Andrade, Joaquim Pinto, 2016. "Inflation targeting on output growth: A pulse dummy analysis of dynamic macroeconomic panel data," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 145-169.
    9. Helder Ferreira de Mendonça & Vítor Ribeiro Laufer Calafate, 2021. "Lack of fiscal transparency and economic growth expectations: an empirical assessment from a large emerging economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(6), pages 2985-3027, December.
    10. G. C. Montes & L. V. Oliveira & A. Curi & R. T. F. Nicolay, 2016. "Effects of transparency, monetary policy signalling and clarity of central bank communication on disagreement about inflation expectations," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(7), pages 590-607, February.
    11. Ruttachai Seelajaroen & Pornanong Budsaratragoon & Boonlert Jitmaneeroj, 2020. "Do monetary policy transparency and central bank communication reduce interest rate disagreement?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(3), pages 368-393, April.
    12. Ronaldo Trogo de Almeida & Wilson Luiz Rotatori Corrêa & Helder Ferreira de Mendonça & José Simão Filho, 2017. "Central bank opacity and inflation uncertainty," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 44(2), pages 313-328, May.
    13. Cleiton Silva de Jesus & Thiago Rios Lopes & Silvana Dantas Guimarães, 2017. "Monetary policy credibility and inflation in an emerging economy," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(2), pages 778-789.
    14. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & Simão Filho, José & Abreu, Vanessa Castro, 2023. "Central bank’s forecasts and lack of transparency: An assessment of the effect on private expectations in a large emerging economy," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 47(2).
    15. Helder Mendonça & Felipe Tostes, 2015. "The Effect of Monetary and Fiscal Credibility on Exchange Rate Pass-Through in an Emerging Economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 787-816, September.
    16. Galvis Ciro, Juan Camilo & Ferreira de Mendonça, Helder, 2016. "Inflation targeting and tax effort: Evidence from Colombia," MPRA Paper 90544, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Dec 2018.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Central bank transparency; Monetary policy; Inflation targeting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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