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Escenarios de vulnerabilidad fiscal para la economía colombiana

Author

Listed:
  • Leonardo Villar
  • David Forero

Abstract

"El presente documento está compuesto por cuatro capítulos, excluyendo esta introducción, en donde se cuantifican esas sensibilidades y se estiman las necesidades de recursos tributarios que pueden surgir en consecuencia, para lo cual se utiliza el Modelo de Equilibrio General Computable de Fedesarrollo. Específicamente, el primer capítulo expone la trayectoria de las cuentas fiscales de la economía colombiana, según lo propuesto por el gobierno en el MFMP, describiendo los supuestos macroeconómicos y las sendas proyectadas de ingresos, gastos y balance fiscal. El Capítulo 2 analiza la posibilidad de choques internacionales en el comportamiento de las economías emergentes, en el precio de los productos básicos y en las condiciones de financiamiento internacional. El capítulo 3 examina las razones por las cuales habrá probablemente un incremento sustancial en el nivel de inversión pública con respecto a lo que actualmente se proyecta en el MFMP. El capítulo 4 se explican las otras tres fuentes de probable incremento del gasto asociadas a prioridades de política, en particular el sistema pensional, la salud, y los nuevos gastos que se espera realizar en los sectores agropecuario y rural, considerando allí el papel que podría cumplir un escenario de postconflicto."

Suggested Citation

  • Leonardo Villar & David Forero, 2014. "Escenarios de vulnerabilidad fiscal para la economía colombiana," Informes de Investigación 12020, Fedesarrollo.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000124:012020
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/11445/328
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ximena Pena & Carmen Hoyo & David Tuesta, 2014. "Determinantes de la inclusion financiera en Mexico a partir de la ENIF 2012," Working Papers 1414, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
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    Cited by:

    1. Juan Camilo Galvis Ciro & Helder Ferreira de Mendonça, 2017. "Effect of credibility and reputation on discretionary fiscal policy: empirical evidence from Colombia," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 1529-1552, December.
    2. Juan Camilo Galvis-Ciro & Juan Camilo Anzoátegui-Zapata & Cristina Isabel Ramos-Barroso, 2022. "The Effect of Communication and Credibility on Fiscal Disagreement: Empirical Evidence from Colombia," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 18(3), pages 215-238, November.
    3. Galvis Ciro, Juan Camilo & Ferreira de Mendonça, Helder, 2016. "Inflation targeting and tax effort: Evidence from Colombia," MPRA Paper 90544, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Dec 2018.
    4. Jose Felix Izquierdo & Santiago Fernandez de Lis & Ana Rubio, 2015. "Determinantes del tipo de interes del credito a empresas en la Eurozona," Working Papers 1509, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sostenibilidad fiscal; Economía Colombiana; Gastos públicos; Política pública; Política fiscal; Cuentas fiscales; Sistema pensional; Salud; Sector agropecuario;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H3 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • H5 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies
    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
    • H53 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • O23 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development

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