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El impacto de los precios del petróleo sobre el crecimiento Económico en Colombia

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  • Juan Ricardo PERILLA JIMÉNEZ

Abstract

Este artículo forma parte de una investigación sobre el efecto del precio del petróleo sobre el crecimientoeconómico en Colombia a nivel agregado y sectorial. La estimación del impacto se realiza a ambos nivelesaplicando técnicas de series de tiempo. La evidencia sugiere que éste impacto existe y es asimétrico a nivelagregado. En el período de análisis la dinámica de los precios habría tenido efectos cambiarios quefavorecieron la importación de bienes intermedios y de capital pero al mismo tiempo habrían tenidoconsecuencias negativas para las exportaciones sectoriales. La combinación de estos dos principales efectossobre el comportamiento de la producción sectorial no es concluyente ni homogénea entre sectores.This paper makes part of a research effort regarding the impact of oil prices over Colombian economicgrowth. Time series estimates for sector and aggregate activity are set which allow thinking of anasymmetrical relationship between price shocks and overall economic growth. Price dynamics would haveimpacted real exchange rate thus favoring imports of intermediates and capital goods, but also hadjeopardizing effects for sector exports. Nevertheless, these main effects do not allow drawing conclusion forproduction at the sector level nor are identical between different sectors.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Ricardo PERILLA JIMÉNEZ, 2010. "El impacto de los precios del petróleo sobre el crecimiento Económico en Colombia," Archivos de Economía 8849, Departamento Nacional de Planeación.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000118:008849
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Juan Camilo Galvis Ciro & Helder Ferreira de Mendonça, 2017. "Effect of credibility and reputation on discretionary fiscal policy: empirical evidence from Colombia," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 1529-1552, December.
    2. Eduardo Saucedo & Jorge González, 2019. "Efecto de los precios del petróleo en la actividad económica sectorial de México. Análisis para el periodo 2002-2018," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 14(2), pages 221-243, Abril-Jun.
    3. Espinosa Acuña, Óscar A. & Vaca González, Paola A. & Avila Forero, Raúl A., 2013. "Elasticidades de demanda por electricidad e impactos macroecon_omicos del precio de la energía eléctrica en Colombia || Elasticity of Electricity Demand and Macroeconomics Impacts of Electricity Price," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 16(1), pages 216-249, December.
    4. Jonathan Cortázar Camelo, Elkin Linares, 2015. "Incidencia de los precios del petróleo en el crecimiento económico y la inversión extranjera directa en Colombia durante el periodo 1990-2010," Revista CIFE, Universidad Santo Tomás, August.
    5. Julio-Román, Juan Manuel & Gamboa-Estrada, Fredy Alejandro, 2019. "The Exchange Rate and Oil Prices in Colombia: A High Frequency Analysis," Working papers 22, Red Investigadores de Economía.
    6. Luis E. Arango & Luz A. Flórez & María A. Olarte-Delgado, 2019. "Precio del carbón y dinámica laboral en Valledupar," Revista de Economía del Rosario, Universidad del Rosario, vol. 22(2), pages 313-370, December.
    7. Galvis Ciro, Juan Camilo & Ferreira de Mendonça, Helder, 2016. "Inflation targeting and tax effort: Evidence from Colombia," MPRA Paper 90544, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Dec 2018.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crecimiento económico; Precios de energía; Series de Tiempo.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products

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