IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ifs/fistud/v35y2014ip91-115.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Determinants of the Volatility of Fiscal Policy Discretion

Author

Listed:
  • Luca Agnello
  • Ricardo M. Sousa

Abstract

No abstract is available for this item.

Suggested Citation

  • Luca Agnello & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2014. "The Determinants of the Volatility of Fiscal Policy Discretion," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 35, pages 91-115, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:ifs:fistud:v:35:y:2014:i::p:91-115
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Torsten Persson, 2002. "Do Political Institutions Shape Economic Policy?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(3), pages 883-905, May.
    2. Alberto Alesina & Filipe R. Campante & Guido Tabellini, 2008. "Why is Fiscal Policy Often Procyclical?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(5), pages 1006-1036, September.
    3. Reinhart, Carmen, 2002. "A Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: The Country Histories, 1946-2001," MPRA Paper 13191, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Torsten Persson & Gérard Roland & Guido Tabellini, 1997. "Separation of Powers and Political Accountability," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 112(4), pages 1163-1202.
    5. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    6. Agnello, Luca & Nerlich, Carolin, 2012. "On the severity of economic downturns: Lessons from cross-country evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 149-155.
    7. Ari Aisen & Francisco Veiga, 2008. "Political instability and inflation volatility," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 135(3), pages 207-223, June.
    8. António Afonso & Luca Agnello & Davide Furceri, 2010. "Fiscal policy responsiveness, persistence, and discretion," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 145(3), pages 503-530, December.
    9. Mark Aguiar & Gita Gopinath, 2007. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle Is the Trend," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(1), pages 69-102.
    10. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    11. Valerie Cerra & Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2008. "Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 439-457, March.
    12. Quadrini, Vincenzo & de Francisco, Eva & Azzimonti, Marina, 2012. "Financial Globalization, Inequality, and the Raising of Public Debt," CEPR Discussion Papers 8893, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Fatas, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 2006. "The macroeconomic effects of fiscal rules in the US states," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1-2), pages 101-117, January.
    14. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 215-268, November.
    15. Aisen, Ari & Veiga, Francisco Jose, 2006. "Does Political Instability Lead to Higher Inflation? A Panel Data Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1379-1389, August.
    16. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    17. Andrew Hughes Hallett, 2008. "Sustainable fiscal policies and budgetary risk under alternative monetary policy arrangements," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 1-28, March.
    18. Talvi, Ernesto & Vegh, Carlos A., 2005. "Tax base variability and procyclical fiscal policy in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 156-190, October.
    19. Stephen Knack & Philip Keefer, 1995. "Institutions And Economic Performance: Cross‐Country Tests Using Alternative Institutional Measures," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(3), pages 207-227, November.
    20. Dani Rodrik, 1998. "Why Do More Open Economies Have Bigger Governments?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(5), pages 997-1032, October.
    21. Holtz-Eakin, Douglas & Newey, Whitney & Rosen, Harvey S, 1988. "Estimating Vector Autoregressions with Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1371-1395, November.
    22. Melitz, Jacques & Darby, Julia, 2007. "Labour Market Adjustment, Social Spending and the Automatic Stabilizers in the OECD," CEPR Discussion Papers 6230, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    23. Lori L. Leachman & Guillermo Rosas & Peter Lange & Alan Bester, 2007. "The Political Economy Of Budget Deficits," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 369-420, November.
    24. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    25. Rand, John & Tarp, Finn, 2002. "Business Cycles in Developing Countries: Are They Different?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 2071-2088, December.
    26. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    27. Galí, Jordi & Perotti, Roberto, 2003. "Fiscal Policy and Monetary Integration in Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 3933, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    28. Tavares, Jose & Wacziarg, Romain, 2001. "How democracy affects growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(8), pages 1341-1378, August.
    29. John B. Taylor, 2000. "Reassessing Discretionary Fiscal Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 21-36, Summer.
    30. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1995. "The Political Economy of Budget Deficits," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(1), pages 1-31, March.
    31. Knack, Stephen & Keefer, Philip, 1995. "Institutions and Economic Performance: Cross-Country Tests Using Alternative Institutional Indicators," MPRA Paper 23118, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    32. Sousa, Ricardo M., 2010. "Consumption, (dis)aggregate wealth, and asset returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 606-622, September.
    33. Ricardo M. Sousa, 2015. "Linking wealth and labour income with stock returns and government bond yields," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(10-11), pages 806-825, August.
    34. Torsten Persson & Guido Tabellini, "undated". "Political Institutions and Policy Outcomes: What are the Stylized Facts?," Working Papers 189, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    35. Ulrich Thießen, 2003. "Fiscal Decentralisation and Economic Growth in High-Income OECD Countries," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 24(3), pages 237-274, September.
    36. Persson, Torsten & Tabellini, Guido, 1996. "Federal Fiscal Constitutions: Risk Sharing and Moral Hazard," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(3), pages 623-646, May.
    37. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
    38. Antonio Fatás & Ilian Mihov, 2003. "The Case for Restricting Fiscal Policy Discretion," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(4), pages 1419-1447.
    39. Sorensen, Bent E. & Wu, Lisa & Yosha, Oved, 2001. "Output fluctuations and fiscal policy: U.S. state and local governments 1978-1994," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1271-1310.
    40. Lane, Philip R., 2003. "The cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy: evidence from the OECD," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(12), pages 2661-2675, December.
    41. Mervyn King, 1994. "Monetary policy in the UK," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 15(3), pages 109-128, August.
    42. Aisen, Ari & Veiga, Francisco José, 2013. "How does political instability affect economic growth?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 151-167.
    43. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
    44. Witold Jerzy Henisz, 2004. "Political Institutions and Policy Volatility," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 1-27, March.
    45. Agnello, Luca & Furceri, Davide & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2013. "How best to measure discretionary fiscal policy? Assessing its impact on private spending," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 15-24.
    46. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-1426, November.
    47. Carmignani, Fabrizio & Colombo, Emilio & Tirelli, Patrizio, 2011. "Macroeconomic risk and the (de)stabilising role of government size," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 781-790.
    48. Hallett, Andrew Hughes & Lewis, John, 2008. "European Fiscal Discipline Before And After Emu: Crash Diet Or Permanent Weight Loss?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(3), pages 404-424, June.
    49. Chadha, Jagjit S. & Nolan, Charles, 2007. "Optimal simple rules for the conduct of monetary and fiscal policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 665-689, December.
    50. Woo, Jaejoon, 2003. "Economic, political, and institutional determinants of public deficits," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(3-4), pages 387-426, March.
    51. Michael Gavin & Roberto Perotti, 1997. "Fiscal Policy in Latin America," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 11-72, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    52. Luca Agnello & Davide Furceri & Ricardo Sousa, 2013. "Discretionary Government Consumption, Private Domestic Demand, and Crisis Episodes," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 79-100, February.
    53. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    54. Ms. Gabriela Inchauste & Mr. Bernardin Akitoby & Mr. Benedict J. Clements & Mr. Sanjeev Gupta, 2004. "The Cyclical and Long-Term Behavior of Government Expenditures in Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 2004/202, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Apeti, Ablam Estel & Combes, Jean-Louis & Minea, Alexandru, 2024. "Inflation targeting and fiscal policy volatility: Evidence from developing countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    2. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2021. "Tax reform and public debt instability in developing countries: The trade openness and public revenue instability channels," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 54-67.
    3. Urbain Thierry Yogo, 2016. "The Curse of Conflict: understanding the effect of terrorism on fiscal volatility," Working Papers hal-04141590, HAL.
    4. Agnello, Luca & Castro, Vítor & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2019. "A competing risks tale on successful and unsuccessful fiscal consolidations," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    5. Gabriel Caldas Montes & Paulo henrique Luna, 2021. "Effects of discretionary fiscal policy and fiscal communication on fiscal credibility: Empirical evidence from Brazil," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 41(3), pages 1486-1500.
    6. John J. Heim, 2016. "Do government stimulus programs have different effects in recessions, or by type of tax or spending program?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 1333-1368, December.
    7. Sena KIMM Gnangnon, 2020. "Export Product Diversification and Fiscal Space Volatility in Developing Countries: Exploring the Economic Growth Volatility Channel," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(3), pages 1837-1854.
    8. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Luna, Paulo Henrique, 2018. "Discretionary fiscal policy and disagreement in expectations about fiscal variables empirical evidence from Brazil," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 100-116.
    9. Asma Arif & Mujahid Hussain, 2018. "The Role of Governance and Political institutions for Budget Deficit for Low and High Income Countries: A Panel Data Analysis," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(Special 3), pages 357-366.
    10. Urbain Thierry Yogo, 2016. "The Curse of Conflict: understanding the effect of terrorism on fiscal volatility," EconomiX Working Papers 2016-20, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    11. Dutt, Pushan & Mobarak, Ahmed Mushfiq, 2016. "Democracy and policy stability," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 499-517.
    12. Ma, Yong & Lv, Lin, 2023. "Financial development, financial instability, and fiscal policy volatility: International evidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    13. Juan Camilo Galvis Ciro & Helder Ferreira de Mendonça, 2017. "Effect of credibility and reputation on discretionary fiscal policy: empirical evidence from Colombia," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 1529-1552, December.
    14. Gabriel Caldas Montes & Iven Silva Valpassos, 2018. "Discretionary fiscal policy and sovereign risk," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 38(3), pages 1343-1365.
    15. Urbain Thierry YOGO, 2015. "Terrorism and Fiscal Policy Volatility in Developing Countries: Evidence from cross-country and Panel Data," Working Papers 201514, CERDI.
    16. Vicente Rios, 2020. "Does direct democracy matter for fiscal policy volatility?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(3), pages 2134-2142.
    17. Narek Ohanyan & Aleksandr Grigoryan, 2021. "Measuring monetary policy: rules versus discretion," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(1), pages 35-60, July.
    18. Reda Cherif & Fuad Hasanov, 2018. "Public debt dynamics: the effects of austerity, inflation, and growth shocks," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 1087-1105, May.
    19. Haryo Kuncoro, 2017. "Does the sustainable fiscal policy foster its credibility?," Economic Journal of Emerging Markets, Universitas Islam Indonesia, vol. 9(1), pages 84-97, April.
    20. Andersson, Jens, 2018. "Tax Stabilisation, Trade and Political Transitions in Francophone West Africa over 120 Years," African Economic History Working Paper 41/2018, African Economic History Network.
    21. Rasa Kanapickienė & Greta Keliuotytė-Staniulėnienė & Deimantė Vasiliauskaitė & Renatas Špicas & Airidas Neifaltas & Mantas Valukonis, 2023. "Macroeconomic Factors of Consumer Loan Credit Risk in Central and Eastern European Countries," Economies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-32, March.
    22. Gabriel Caldas Montes & Paulo Henrique Lourenço Luna, 2022. "Do fiscal opacity, fiscal impulse, and fiscal credibility affect disagreement about economic growth forecasts? Empirical evidence from Brazil considering the period of political instability and presid," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(4), pages 2356-2393, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Luca Agnello & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2009. "The Determinants of Public Deficit Volatility," NIPE Working Papers 11/2009, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    2. Luca Agnello & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2013. "Political, Institutional, and Economic Factors Underlying Deficit Volatility," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 719-732, September.
    3. Luca Agnello & Davide Furceri & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2011. "Fiscal Policy Discretion, Private Spending, and Crisis Episodes," NIPE Working Papers 31/2011, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    4. Luca Agnello & Davide Furceri & Ricardo Sousa, 2013. "Discretionary Government Consumption, Private Domestic Demand, and Crisis Episodes," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 79-100, February.
    5. Dragan Tevdovski & Petar Jolakoski & Viktor Stojkoski, 2021. "Determinants of budget deficits: Focus on the effects from the COVID-19 crisis," Papers 2105.14959, arXiv.org.
    6. repec:ers:journl:v:vi:y:2018:i:3:p:98-114 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Attiya Y. Javid & Umaima Arif & Asma Arif, 2011. "Economic, Political and Institutional Determinants of Budget Deficits Volatility in Selected Asian Countries," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 50(4), pages 649-662.
    8. Asma Arif & Mujahid Hussain, 2018. "Economic, Political and Institutional Determinants of Budget Deficits Volatility: A Panel Data Analysis," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(3), pages 98-114.
    9. Garnov & A. & Zvyagin & L. & Sviridova & O., 2019. "System Data Analysis: Innovative Technologies, Methods and Techniques," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(Special 1), pages 26-39.
    10. Dragan Tevdovski & Petar Jolakoski & Viktor Stojkoski, 2022. "Determinants Of Budget Deficits: The Effects Of The Covid-19 Crisis," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 67(232), pages 105-126, January –.
    11. Bruno Albuquerque, 2012. "Fiscal institutions and public spending volatility in Europe," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    12. Larch, Martin & Orseau, Eloïse & van der Wielen, Wouter, 2021. "Do EU fiscal rules support or hinder counter-cyclical fiscal policy?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    13. Guerguil, Martine & Mandon, Pierre & Tapsoba, René, 2017. "Flexible fiscal rules and countercyclical fiscal policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 189-220.
    14. António Afonso & Luca Agnello & Davide Furceri, 2010. "Fiscal policy responsiveness, persistence, and discretion," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 145(3), pages 503-530, December.
    15. Apeti, Ablam Estel & Combes, Jean-Louis & Minea, Alexandru, 2024. "Inflation targeting and fiscal policy volatility: Evidence from developing countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    16. Wolf Heinrich Reuter & Olegs Tkacevs & Karlis Vilerts, 2018. "On the design of stabilising fiscal rules," Working Papers 2018/05, Latvijas Banka.
    17. Sacchi, Agnese & Salotti, Simone, 2015. "The impact of national fiscal rules on the stabilisation function of fiscal policy," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 1-20.
    18. Ahmed, Abdullahi D. & Suardi, Sandy, 2009. "Macroeconomic Volatility, Trade and Financial Liberalization in Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 1623-1636, October.
    19. Abdilahi Ali & Katsushi S. Imai, 2015. "Editor's choice Crises, Economic Integration and Growth Collapses in African Countries," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 24(4), pages 471-501.
    20. César Calderón & Roberto Duncan & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2016. "Do Good Institutions Promote Countercyclical Macroeconomic Policies?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(5), pages 650-670, October.
    21. Combes, Jean-Louis & Minea, Alexandru & Sow, Moussé, 2017. "Is fiscal policy always counter- (pro-) cyclical? The role of public debt and fiscal rules," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 138-146.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ifs:fistud:v:35:y:2014:i::p:91-115. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Emma Hyman (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifsssuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.