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German Exports to the Euro Area

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  • Sabine Stephan

Abstract

The growth of the German economy intrinsically depends on the development of German exports to the euro area, which is by far the biggest market for German products. The paper estimates a structural equation for the export demand from the EMU member countries, which is suitable for both simulations and short-term forecasts. However, the equation systematically underestimates the export demand for data from 1999 onwards, indicating that German exports have greatly benefited from the introduction of the European Monetary Union--a special effect, that is not considered in the structural equation.
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Suggested Citation

  • Sabine Stephan, 2006. "German Exports to the Euro Area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 871-882, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:31:y:2006:i:4:p:871-882
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-006-0059-4
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    10. Sawyer, W. Charles & Sprinkle, Richard L., 1997. "The Demand for Imports and Exports in Japan: A Survey," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 247-259, June.
    11. Martin Meurers, 2003. "Angebot und Nachfrage im Außenhandel : Theoretische Überlegungen und eine Kointegrationsanalyse für Deutschland," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 13.
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    Cited by:

    1. Engelbert Stockhammer & Eckhard Hein & Lucas Grafl, 2011. "Globalization and the effects of changes in functional income distribution on aggregate demand in Germany," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 1-23.
    2. Matei Demetrescu & Helmut Lütkepohl & Pentti Saikkonen, 2009. "Testing for the cointegrating rank of a vector autoregressive process with uncertain deterministic trend term," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 12(3), pages 414-435, November.
    3. Manh Ha Duong & Camille Logeay & Sabine Stephan & Rudolf Zwiener & Serhiy Yahnych, 2005. "Modelling European Business Cycles (EBC Model): A Macroeconometric Model of Germany ; Version March 2005," Data Documentation 5, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    4. Ulrich Fritsche & Camille Logeay & Kirsten Lommatzsch & Katja Rietzler & Sabine Stephan & Rudolf Zwiener unter Mitarb. von Cansel Kiziltepe & Christian Proano-Acosta, 2005. "Auswirkungen von länderspezifischen Differenzen in der Lohn-, Preisniveau- und Produktivitätsentwicklung auf Wachstum und Beschäftigung in den Ländern des Euroraums: Endbericht ; Forschungsprojekt im ," DIW Berlin: Politikberatung kompakt, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, volume 8, number pbk8.
    5. Boom, Anette, 2004. ""Download for Free": When do providers of digital goods offer free samples?," Discussion Papers 2004/28, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    6. Christian Grimme & Magnus Reif & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2016. "Die Auswirkungen des britischen Votums für einen Brexit auf die deutsche Konjunktur 2016/17," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 69(13), pages 38-43, July.
    7. Stephan Danninger & Fred Joutz, 2008. "What Explains Germany's Rebounding Export Market Share?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 54(4), pages 681-714, December.
    8. Katja Rietzler, 2012. "The IMK’s Model of the German Economy," IMK Studies 29-2012, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    9. Katja Rietzler, 2005. "Modelling European Business Cycles (EBC Model): A Macroeconometric Model of Spain ; February 2005," Data Documentation 4, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    10. Fedoseeva, Svetlana & Zeidan, Rodrigo, 2016. "A dead-end tunnel or the light at the end of it: The role of BRICs in European exports," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 237-248.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Export function; Income and price elasticity of exports; Intra-EMU trade; Error-correction model; Forecasting; C22; C52; F47;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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