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Globalisierung und die Prognose des deutschen Außenhandels / Forecasting Germany’s Exports and Imports in the Era of Globalization

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  • Strauß Hubert

    (OECD, Economics Department, Country Studies V, Benelux Desk, 2 rue André-Pascal, F-75775 Paris Cedex 16)

Abstract

Globalization has increased the differential between growth of world trade volumes and growth of world GDP during the last 25 years, thereby clearly enhancing German exports and imports, too. As a result from single-equation error-correction models for quarterly data on Germany’s foreign trade, imports react more strongly to an increase in the intensity of world trade (defined as the ratio of real world exports to real GDP) at the end of the nineties than at the beginning of the decade. The long-run elasticities with respect to economic activity (foreign industrial production in the case of exports, German domestic demand plus exports in the case of imports) turn out to be 1.3 and 1.6, respectively. The real effective exchange rate elasticities amount to -1 for exports and 0.3 for imports thus satisfying the Marshall-Lerner-condition. The model for exports and the one for imports are each derived from a 4 × 4-vector-error correction model in which one co-integration vector is found and weak exogeneity of the other three determinants does hold. With satisfying stability properties, small forecast errors and relatively low information requirements, the models may well be used in business-cycle forecasts.

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  • Strauß Hubert, 2003. "Globalisierung und die Prognose des deutschen Außenhandels / Forecasting Germany’s Exports and Imports in the Era of Globalization," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 223(2), pages 176-203, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:jns:jbstat:v:223:y:2003:i:2:p:176-203
    DOI: 10.1515/jbnst-2003-0205
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    2. Römer, Christof, 2003. "Deutsch-amerikanische Wirtschaftsverflechtungen," IW-Trends – Vierteljahresschrift zur empirischen Wirtschaftsforschung, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) / German Economic Institute, vol. 30(3), pages 20-29.
    3. Christian Grimme & Magnus Reif & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2016. "Die Auswirkungen des britischen Votums für einen Brexit auf die deutsche Konjunktur 2016/17," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 69(13), pages 38-43, July.

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