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Die Auswirkungen des britischen Votums für einen Brexit auf die deutsche Konjunktur 2016/17

Author

Listed:
  • Christian Grimme
  • Magnus Reif
  • Timo Wollmershäuser

Abstract

Die Entscheidung der Briten vom 23. Juni 2016, die Europäische Union zu verlassen, hat zu unmittelbaren und starken Reaktionen an den Finanzmärkten geführt. Weltweit brachen Börsenkurse ein, das britische Pfund verlor deutlich an Wert, und aktienmarktbasierte Volatilitätsmaße stiegen stark an. An den Tagen nach dem Referendum häuften sich die Fragen nach den Auswirkungen des Brexit-Votums auf die deutsche Konjunktur. Der Beitrag zeigt, dass die deutsche Wirtschaft in diesem und im nächsten Jahr zwar einen Dämpfer erhalten wird, da eine konjunkturelle Abschwächung in Großbritannien und eine Abwertung des britischen Pfunds den Außenhandel und eine erhöhte Unsicherheit die deutschen Investitionen beeinträchtigen dürften. Allerdings werden die Wachstumseinbußen mit weniger als einem Zehntel Prozentpunkt im Jahr 2016 und mit bis zu zwei Zehntel Prozentpunkten im Jahr 2017 wohl eher gering ausfallen und damit den robusten Aufschwung, in dem sich die deutsche Wirtschaft seit nunmehr drei Jahren befindet, nicht gefährden.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Grimme & Magnus Reif & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2016. "Die Auswirkungen des britischen Votums für einen Brexit auf die deutsche Konjunktur 2016/17," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 69(13), pages 38-43, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:69:y:2016:i:13:p:38-43
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Timo Wollmershäuser & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Nikolay Hristov & Dorine Boumans & Johanna Garnitz & Marcell Göttert & Christian Grimme & Stefan Lauterbacher & Robert Lehmann & Wolfgang Meister & Magnus Rei, 2016. "ifo Konjunkturprognose 2016–2018: Robuste deutsche Konjunktur vor einem Jahr ungewisser internationaler Wirtschaftspolitik," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 69(24), pages 28-73, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Referendum; Außenhandel; Konjunktur; Deutschland; Großbritannien;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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