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The Effect of Same-Sex Marriage Laws on Different-Sex Marriage: Evidence From the Netherlands

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  • Mircea Trandafir

Abstract

It has long been argued that the legalization of same-sex marriage would have a negative impact on marriage. In this article, I examine how different-sex marriage in the Netherlands was affected by the enactment of two laws: a 1998 law that provided all couples with an institution almost identical to marriage (a “registered partnership”) and a 2001 law that legalized same-sex marriage for the first time in the world. I first construct a synthetic control for the Netherlands using OECD data for the period 1988–2005 and find that neither law had significant effects on either the overall or different-sex marriage rate. I next construct a unique individual-level data set covering the period 1995–2005 by combining the Dutch Labor Force Survey and official municipal records. The estimates from a discrete-time hazard model with unobserved heterogeneity for the first-marriage decision confirm the findings in the aggregate analysis. The effects of the two laws are heterogeneous, with presumably more-liberal individuals (as defined by their residence or ethnicity) marrying less after passage of both laws and potentially more-conservative individuals marrying more after passage of each law. Copyright Population Association of America 2014

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  • Mircea Trandafir, 2014. "The Effect of Same-Sex Marriage Laws on Different-Sex Marriage: Evidence From the Netherlands," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(1), pages 317-340, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:demogr:v:51:y:2014:i:1:p:317-340
    DOI: 10.1007/s13524-013-0248-7
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    3. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/38n7438p68vmqd9om4bjj6l4c is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Leturcq, Marion, 2012. "Will you civil union me? Taxation and civil unions in France," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(5), pages 541-552.
    5. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/38n7438p68vmqd9om4bjj6l4c is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Edoardo Ciscato & Alfred Galichon & Marion Goussé, 2020. "Like Attract Like? A Structural Comparison of Homogamy across Same-Sex and Different-Sex Households," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(2), pages 740-781.
    7. Robert Bifulco & Ross Rubenstein & Hosung Sohn, 2017. "Using Synthetic Controls to Evaluate the Effect of Unique Interventions: The Case of Say Yes to Education," Evaluation Review, , vol. 41(6), pages 593-619, December.
    8. Chen, Shuai & van Ours, Jan C., 2020. "Symbolism matters: The effect of same-sex marriage legalization on partnership stability," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 44-58.
    9. Edoardo Ciscato & Alfred Galichon & Marion Goussé, 2020. "Like Attract Like? A Structural Comparison of Homogamy across Same-Sex and Different-Sex Households," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(2), pages 740-781.
    10. Dimitrios Nikolaou, 2023. "Effects of marriage equality legislation on sexual health of the US population," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(1), pages 107-133, January.
    11. Alexis Dinno, 2014. "Comment on “The Effect of Same-Sex Marriage Laws on Different-Sex Marriage: Evidence From the Netherlands”," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(6), pages 2343-2347, December.
    12. Christopher S. Carpenter, 2020. "The Direct Effects of Legal Same-Sex Marriage in the United States: Evidence From Massachusetts," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(5), pages 1787-1808, October.
    13. Christopher S. Carpenter & Samuel T. Eppink & Gilbert Gonzales & Tara McKay, 2021. "Effects of Access to Legal Same‐Sex Marriage on Marriage and Health," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(2), pages 376-411, March.
    14. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/10gq8jbaid85sben727o7nd22a is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Marcus Dillender, 2014. "The Death of Marriage? The Effects of New Forms of Legal Recognition on Marriage Rates in the United States," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(2), pages 563-585, April.
    16. Erin O Sills & Diego Herrera & A Justin Kirkpatrick & Amintas Brandão Jr. & Rebecca Dickson & Simon Hall & Subhrendu Pattanayak & David Shoch & Mariana Vedoveto & Luisa Young & Alexander Pfaff, 2015. "Estimating the Impacts of Local Policy Innovation: The Synthetic Control Method Applied to Tropical Deforestation," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(7), pages 1-15, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Same-sex marriage; Synthetic control; Discrete-time hazard model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J12 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Marriage; Marital Dissolution; Family Structure
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination

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