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Using Synthetic Controls to Evaluate the Effect of Unique Interventions: The Case of Say Yes to Education

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  • Robert Bifulco
  • Ross Rubenstein
  • Hosung Sohn

Abstract

Background: “Place-based†scholarships seek to improve student outcomes in urban school districts and promote urban revitalization in economically challenged cities. Say Yes to Education is a unique district-wide school reform effort adopted in Syracuse, NY, in 2008. It includes full-tuition scholarships for public and private universities, coupled with extensive wraparound support services in schools. Objectives: This study uses synthetic control methods to evaluate the effect of Say Yes on district enrollment and graduation rates. It also introduces the synthetic control method and provides guidance for its use in evaluating single-site interventions. Method: Combining school district-level data from the National Center for Education Statistics’ Common Core of Data and New York State School Report Cards, this article uses synthetic control methods to construct a synthetic comparison district to estimate counterfactual enrollment and graduation trends for Syracuse. Results: We find that Say Yes to Education was associated with enrollment increases in the Syracuse City School District, a district that had previously experienced decades of sustained enrollment declines. We do not find consistent evidence of changes in graduation rates following adoption of the program. Conclusions: Graduation rate analyses demonstrate that estimates of treatment effects can be sensitive to choices that the researcher has to make in applying synthetic control methods, particularly when pretreatment outcome measures appear to have considerable amounts of noise.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Bifulco & Ross Rubenstein & Hosung Sohn, 2017. "Using Synthetic Controls to Evaluate the Effect of Unique Interventions: The Case of Say Yes to Education," Evaluation Review, , vol. 41(6), pages 593-619, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:evarev:v:41:y:2017:i:6:p:593-619
    DOI: 10.1177/0193841X17742233
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    Cited by:

    1. Brett Parker, 2021. "Death Penalty Statutes and Murder Rates: Evidence From Synthetic Controls," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(3), pages 488-533, September.
    2. Guillaume Allaire Pouliot & Zhen Xie, 2022. "Degrees of Freedom and Information Criteria for the Synthetic Control Method," Papers 2207.02943, arXiv.org.
    3. Elaine W. Leigh & Manuel S. González Canché, 2021. "The College Promise in Communities: Do Place-based Scholarships Affect Residential Mobility Patterns?," Research in Higher Education, Springer;Association for Institutional Research, vol. 62(3), pages 259-308, May.
    4. Shosei Sakaguchi & Hayato Tagawa, 2024. "Identification and Inference for Synthetic Control Methods with Spillover Effects: Estimating the Economic Cost of the Sudan Split," Papers 2408.00291, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2024.

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