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Vulnerability and risk: climate change and water supply from California’s Central Valley water system

Author

Listed:
  • Patrick Ray

    (University of Cincinnati)

  • Sungwook Wi

    (University of Massachusetts)

  • Andrew Schwarz

    (Delta Stewardship Council)

  • Matthew Correa

    (California Department of Water Resources)

  • Minxue He

    (California Department of Water Resources)

  • Casey Brown

    (University of Massachusetts)

Abstract

Water allocation institutions globally must operate within legal and political contexts established by precedent and codified in operating rules, even as they flex and adjust to climate change. California’s Central Valley Water System (CVS) is a prime example. Recent global, national, regional, and local climate change assessments have highlighted climate-change-driven impacts on the CVS; however, these previous studies have not discussed the relative likelihood of performance decline, making it difficult to use the information for planning. In response, this paper presents a systematic climate change stress test that utilizes a physically based hydrologic model linked with a water resources system model representing the infrastructure, operations, and policy constraints of the interconnected system of natural river channels and man-made facilities that comprise the CVS. The results provide a summary of the sensitivity of the system to climate change, indicating the specific climate changes that cause performance of the system to decline below historical norms, and an estimation of the General Circulation Model (GCM) informed probability of those changes by 2050. Degraded performance is especially likely for State Water Project (SWP) deliveries (> 85%), and September carryover/drought storage in the Oroville Reservoir (the SWP’s largest reservoir, ~ 95% likely to degrade). A decline in Net Delta Outflow is likely in all seasons except summer and early fall (when regulations require supplemental releases to combat salinity from sea level rise). For most of these metrics, the modeled performance drop is more severe in dry years than in wet years.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick Ray & Sungwook Wi & Andrew Schwarz & Matthew Correa & Minxue He & Casey Brown, 2020. "Vulnerability and risk: climate change and water supply from California’s Central Valley water system," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 161(1), pages 177-199, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:161:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-020-02655-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02655-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Christina Connell-Buck & Josué Medellín-Azuara & Jay Lund & Kaveh Madani, 2011. "Adapting California’s water system to warm vs. dry climates," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 133-149, December.
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    4. Selma B. Guerreiro & Hayley J. Fowler & Renaud Barbero & Seth Westra & Geert Lenderink & Stephen Blenkinsop & Elizabeth Lewis & Xiao-Feng Li, 2018. "Detection of continental-scale intensification of hourly rainfall extremes," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(9), pages 803-807, September.
    5. E. M. Fischer & R. Knutti, 2016. "Observed heavy precipitation increase confirms theory and early models," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(11), pages 986-991, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Baptiste François & Alexis Dufour & Thi Nhu Khanh Nguyen & Alexa Bruce & Dong Kwan Park & Casey Brown, 2024. "From many futures to one: climate-informed planning scenario analysis for resource-efficient deep climate uncertainty analysis," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 177(7), pages 1-23, July.
    2. Geeta G. Persad & Daniel L. Swain & Claire Kouba & J. Pablo Ortiz-Partida, 2020. "Inter-model agreement on projected shifts in California hydroclimate characteristics critical to water management," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(3), pages 1493-1513, October.
    3. Brett Milligan & Alejo Kraus-Polk & Yiwei Huang, 2020. "Park, Fish, Salt and Marshes: Participatory Mapping and Design in a Watery Uncommons," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-25, November.

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