IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v161y2020i1d10.1007_s10584-020-02655-z.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Vulnerability and risk: climate change and water supply from California’s Central Valley water system

Author

Listed:
  • Patrick Ray

    (University of Cincinnati)

  • Sungwook Wi

    (University of Massachusetts)

  • Andrew Schwarz

    (Delta Stewardship Council)

  • Matthew Correa

    (California Department of Water Resources)

  • Minxue He

    (California Department of Water Resources)

  • Casey Brown

    (University of Massachusetts)

Abstract

Water allocation institutions globally must operate within legal and political contexts established by precedent and codified in operating rules, even as they flex and adjust to climate change. California’s Central Valley Water System (CVS) is a prime example. Recent global, national, regional, and local climate change assessments have highlighted climate-change-driven impacts on the CVS; however, these previous studies have not discussed the relative likelihood of performance decline, making it difficult to use the information for planning. In response, this paper presents a systematic climate change stress test that utilizes a physically based hydrologic model linked with a water resources system model representing the infrastructure, operations, and policy constraints of the interconnected system of natural river channels and man-made facilities that comprise the CVS. The results provide a summary of the sensitivity of the system to climate change, indicating the specific climate changes that cause performance of the system to decline below historical norms, and an estimation of the General Circulation Model (GCM) informed probability of those changes by 2050. Degraded performance is especially likely for State Water Project (SWP) deliveries (> 85%), and September carryover/drought storage in the Oroville Reservoir (the SWP’s largest reservoir, ~ 95% likely to degrade). A decline in Net Delta Outflow is likely in all seasons except summer and early fall (when regulations require supplemental releases to combat salinity from sea level rise). For most of these metrics, the modeled performance drop is more severe in dry years than in wet years.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick Ray & Sungwook Wi & Andrew Schwarz & Matthew Correa & Minxue He & Casey Brown, 2020. "Vulnerability and risk: climate change and water supply from California’s Central Valley water system," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 161(1), pages 177-199, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:161:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-020-02655-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02655-z
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-020-02655-z
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-020-02655-z?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert J. Lempert & David G. Groves & Steven W. Popper & Steve C. Bankes, 2006. "A General, Analytic Method for Generating Robust Strategies and Narrative Scenarios," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(4), pages 514-528, April.
    2. Dustin Evan Garrick, 2015. "Water Allocation in Rivers under Pressure," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14857.
    3. Selma B. Guerreiro & Hayley J. Fowler & Renaud Barbero & Seth Westra & Geert Lenderink & Stephen Blenkinsop & Elizabeth Lewis & Xiao-Feng Li, 2018. "Detection of continental-scale intensification of hourly rainfall extremes," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(9), pages 803-807, September.
    4. Christina Connell-Buck & Josué Medellín-Azuara & Jay Lund & Kaveh Madani, 2011. "Adapting California’s water system to warm vs. dry climates," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 133-149, December.
    5. E. M. Fischer & R. Knutti, 2016. "Observed heavy precipitation increase confirms theory and early models," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(11), pages 986-991, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Baptiste François & Alexis Dufour & Thi Nhu Khanh Nguyen & Alexa Bruce & Dong Kwan Park & Casey Brown, 2024. "From many futures to one: climate-informed planning scenario analysis for resource-efficient deep climate uncertainty analysis," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 177(7), pages 1-23, July.
    2. Geeta G. Persad & Daniel L. Swain & Claire Kouba & J. Pablo Ortiz-Partida, 2020. "Inter-model agreement on projected shifts in California hydroclimate characteristics critical to water management," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(3), pages 1493-1513, October.
    3. Brett Milligan & Alejo Kraus-Polk & Yiwei Huang, 2020. "Park, Fish, Salt and Marshes: Participatory Mapping and Design in a Watery Uncommons," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-25, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Samuel Asumadu Sarkodie & Maruf Yakubu Ahmed & Phebe Asantewaa Owusu, 2022. "Global adaptation readiness and income mitigate sectoral climate change vulnerabilities," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-17, December.
    2. Baker, Erin & Bosetti, Valentina & Salo, Ahti, 2016. "Finding Common Ground when Experts Disagree: Belief Dominance over Portfolios of Alternatives," MITP: Mitigation, Innovation and Transformation Pathways 243147, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    3. Quentin Perrier, 2017. "The French Nuclear Bet," Working Papers 2017.18, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    4. Arun S. Malik & Stephen C. Smith, 2012. "Adaptation To Climate Change In Low-Income Countries: Lessons From Current Research And Needs From Future Research," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(02), pages 1-22.
    5. Xueguo Xu & Chen Xu & Wenxin Zhang, 2022. "Research on the Destruction Resistance of Giant Urban Rail Transit Network from the Perspective of Vulnerability," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-26, June.
    6. Roy, Bernard, 2010. "Robustness in operational research and decision aiding: A multi-faceted issue," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 200(3), pages 629-638, February.
    7. Lempert Robert J., 2014. "Embedding (some) benefit-cost concepts into decision support processes with deep uncertainty," Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, De Gruyter, vol. 5(3), pages 487-514, December.
    8. Thomas D. Pol & Ekko C. Ierland & Silke Gabbert, 2017. "Economic analysis of adaptive strategies for flood risk management under climate change," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 267-285, February.
    9. Mook Bangalore & Stephane Hallegatte & Laura Bonzanigo & Tamaro Kane & Marianne Fay & Ulf Narloch & David Treguer & Julie Rozenberg & Adrien Vogt-Schilb, 2016. "Shock Waves," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 22787.
    10. Franck Lecocq & Alain Nadaï & Christophe Cassen, 2022. "Getting models and modellers to inform deep decarbonization strategies," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(6), pages 695-710, July.
    11. Erik Pruyt & Jan H. Kwakkel, 2014. "Radicalization under deep uncertainty: a multi-model exploration of activism, extremism, and terrorism," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 30(1-2), pages 1-28, January.
    12. Elmar Kriegler & Brian-C O'Neill & Stéphane Hallegatte & Tom Kram & Richard-H Moss & Robert Lempert & Thomas J Wilbanks, 2010. "Socio-economic Scenario Development for Climate Change Analysis," CIRED Working Papers hal-00866437, HAL.
    13. Student, Jillian & Kramer, Mark R. & Steinmann, Patrick, 2020. "Simulating emerging coastal tourism vulnerabilities: an agent-based modelling approach," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    14. Vinícius B. P. Chagas & Pedro L. B. Chaffe & Günter Blöschl, 2022. "Climate and land management accelerate the Brazilian water cycle," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    15. Hurford, A.P. & Harou, J.J. & Bonzanigo, L. & Ray, P.A. & Karki, P. & Bharati, L. & Chinnasamy, P., 2020. "Efficient and robust hydropower system design under uncertainty - A demonstration in Nepal," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    16. Vladimir A. Masch, 2017. "¡°Shifting the Paradigm¡± in Superintelligence," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 8, pages 17-30, May.
    17. Friederike E. L. Otto & Petra Minnerop & Emmanuel Raju & Luke J. Harrington & Rupert F. Stuart‐Smith & Emily Boyd & Rachel James & Richard Jones & Kristian C. Lauta, 2022. "Causality and the fate of climate litigation: The role of the social superstructure narrative," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 13(5), pages 736-750, November.
    18. Julie E. Shortridge & Benjamin F. Zaitchik, 2018. "Characterizing climate change risks by linking robust decision frameworks and uncertain probabilistic projections," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 151(3), pages 525-539, December.
    19. T. D. Pol & S. Gabbert & H.-P. Weikard & E. C. Ierland & E. M. T. Hendrix, 2017. "A Minimax Regret Analysis of Flood Risk Management Strategies Under Climate Change Uncertainty and Emerging Information," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 68(4), pages 1087-1109, December.
    20. Tsao, Yu-Chung & Thanh, Vo-Van & Lu, Jye-Chyi, 2022. "Efficiency of resilient three-part tariff pricing schemes in residential power markets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PD).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:161:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-020-02655-z. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.