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Antarctic Ice Sheet and emission scenario controls on 21st-century extreme sea-level changes

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas Frederikse

    (California Institute of Technology
    Utrecht University)

  • Maya K. Buchanan

    (One Palmer Square)

  • Erwin Lambert

    (Utrecht University)

  • Robert E. Kopp

    (Rutgers University)

  • Michael Oppenheimer

    (Princeton University)

  • D. J. Rasmussen

    (Princeton University)

  • Roderik S. W. van de Wal

    (Utrecht University
    Utrecht University)

Abstract

Uncertainties in Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios and Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) melt propagate into uncertainties in projected mean sea-level (MSL) changes and extreme sea-level (ESL) events. Here we quantify the impact of RCP scenarios and AIS contributions on 21st-century ESL changes at tide-gauge sites across the globe using extreme-value statistics. We find that even under RCP2.6, almost half of the sites could be exposed annually to a present-day 100-year ESL event by 2050. Most tropical sites face large increases in ESL events earlier and for scenarios with smaller MSL changes than extratropical sites. Strong emission reductions lower the probability of large ESL changes but due to AIS uncertainties, cannot fully eliminate the probability that large increases in frequencies of ESL events will occur. Under RCP8.5 and rapid AIS mass loss, many tropical sites, including low-lying islands face a MSL rise by 2100 that exceeds the present-day 100-year event level.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Frederikse & Maya K. Buchanan & Erwin Lambert & Robert E. Kopp & Michael Oppenheimer & D. J. Rasmussen & Roderik S. W. van de Wal, 2020. "Antarctic Ice Sheet and emission scenario controls on 21st-century extreme sea-level changes," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-11, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:11:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-019-14049-6
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-14049-6
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    Cited by:

    1. Costas Varotsos & Yuri Mazei & Elena Novenko & Andrey N. Tsyganov & Alexander Olchev & Tatiana Pampura & Natalia Mazei & Yulia Fatynina & Damir Saldaev & Maria Efstathiou, 2020. "A New Climate Nowcasting Tool Based on Paleoclimatic Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-14, July.
    2. Nehdi, Moncef L. & Marani, Afshin & Zhang, Lei, 2024. "Is net-zero feasible: Systematic review of cement and concrete decarbonization technologies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    3. Pertierra, L.R. & Santos-Martin, F. & Hughes, K.A. & Avila, C. & Caceres, J.O. & De Filippo, D. & Gonzalez, S. & Grant, S.M. & Lynch, H. & Marina-Montes, C. & Quesada, A. & Tejedo, P. & Tin, T. & Bena, 2021. "Ecosystem services in Antarctica: Global assessment of the current state, future challenges and managing opportunities," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    4. D. J. Rasmussen & Scott Kulp & Robert E. Kopp & Michael Oppenheimer & Benjamin H. Strauss, 2022. "Popular extreme sea level metrics can better communicate impacts," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 1-17, February.
    5. Marcello Basili & Federico Crudu, 2021. "Aggregation of Experts Opinions and the Assessment of Tipping Points. Catastrophic Forecasts for Higher Temperature Changes," Department of Economics University of Siena 868, Department of Economics, University of Siena.

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