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Understanding extreme sea levels for broad-scale coastal impact and adaptation analysis

Author

Listed:
  • T. Wahl

    (Environmental and Construction Engineering and Sustainable Coastal Systems Cluster, University of Central Florida)

  • I. D. Haigh

    (Ocean and Earth Science, National Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton, European Way)

  • R. J. Nicholls

    (Engineering and the Environment, University of Southampton)

  • A. Arns

    (Research Institute for Water and Environment, University of Siegen)

  • S. Dangendorf

    (Research Institute for Water and Environment, University of Siegen)

  • J. Hinkel

    (Global Climate Forum
    Albrecht Daniel Thaer-Institute and Berlin Workshop in Institutional Analysis of Social-Ecological Systems, Humboldt-University)

  • A. B. A. Slangen

    (Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research and Utrecht University)

Abstract

One of the main consequences of mean sea level rise (SLR) on human settlements is an increase in flood risk due to an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme sea levels (ESL). While substantial research efforts are directed towards quantifying projections and uncertainties of future global and regional SLR, corresponding uncertainties in contemporary ESL have not been assessed and projections are limited. Here we quantify, for the first time at global scale, the uncertainties in present-day ESL estimates, which have by default been ignored in broad-scale sea-level rise impact assessments to date. ESL uncertainties exceed those from global SLR projections and, assuming that we meet the Paris agreement goals, the projected SLR itself by the end of the century in many regions. Both uncertainties in SLR projections and ESL estimates need to be understood and combined to fully assess potential impacts and adaptation needs.

Suggested Citation

  • T. Wahl & I. D. Haigh & R. J. Nicholls & A. Arns & S. Dangendorf & J. Hinkel & A. B. A. Slangen, 2017. "Understanding extreme sea levels for broad-scale coastal impact and adaptation analysis," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:8:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1038_ncomms16075
    DOI: 10.1038/ncomms16075
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    Cited by:

    1. F. G. Schmitt & A. Crapoulet & A. Hequette & Y. Huang, 2018. "Nonlinear dynamics of the sea level time series in the eastern English Channel," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 91(1), pages 267-285, March.
    2. Taoufik Chtioui & Mounir Hakkou & Abdelhaq Aangri & Farah El Hassani & Zakaria El Mostafa & Aicha Benmohammadi, 2024. "Assessing coastal flood risk under extreme events and sea level rise in the Casablanca-Mohammedia coastline (Morocco)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 120(12), pages 10727-10752, September.
    3. Óscar Ferreira & Sunna Kupfer & Susana Costas, 2021. "Implications of sea-level rise for overwash enhancement at South Portugal," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 109(3), pages 2221-2239, December.
    4. Shijin Wang, 2024. "Opportunities and threats of cryosphere change to the achievement of UN 2030 SDGs," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-13, December.
    5. Peter Bacopoulos, 2019. "Extreme low and high waters due to a large and powerful tropical cyclone: Hurricane Irma (2017)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 98(3), pages 939-968, September.
    6. Charls Antony & Sabique Langodan & Hari Prasad Dasari & Omar Knio & Ibrahim Hoteit, 2021. "Extreme water levels along the central Red Sea coast of Saudi Arabia: processes and frequency analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 105(2), pages 1797-1814, January.
    7. André B. Fortunato & Edmund P. Meredith & Marta Rodrigues & Paula Freire & Hendrik Feldmann, 2019. "Near-future changes in storm surges along the Atlantic Iberian coast," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 98(3), pages 1003-1020, September.
    8. Ben S. Hague & Andy J. Taylor, 2021. "Tide-only inundation: a metric to quantify the contribution of tides to coastal inundation under sea-level rise," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 107(1), pages 675-695, May.
    9. Kai Parker & Li Erikson & Jennifer Thomas & Kees Nederhoff & Patrick Barnard & Sanne Muis, 2023. "Relative contributions of water-level components to extreme water levels along the US Southeast Atlantic Coast from a regional-scale water-level hindcast," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(3), pages 2219-2248, July.
    10. Shi Xianwu & Han Ziqiang & Fang Jiayi & Tan Jun & Guo Zhixing & Sun Zhilin, 2020. "Assessment and zonation of storm surge hazards in the coastal areas of China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 100(1), pages 39-48, January.
    11. D. J. Rasmussen & Scott Kulp & Robert E. Kopp & Michael Oppenheimer & Benjamin H. Strauss, 2022. "Popular extreme sea level metrics can better communicate impacts," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 1-17, February.
    12. Déborah Idier & Jérémy Rohmer & Rodrigo Pedreros & Sylvestre Roy & Jérome Lambert & Jessie Louisor & Gonéri Cozannet & Erwan Cornec, 2020. "Coastal flood: a composite method for past events characterisation providing insights in past, present and future hazards—joining historical, statistical and modelling approaches," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 101(2), pages 465-501, March.
    13. Tina Dura & Andra J. Garner & Robert Weiss & Robert E. Kopp & Simon E. Engelhart & Robert C. Witter & Richard W. Briggs & Charles S. Mueller & Alan R. Nelson & Benjamin P. Horton, 2021. "Changing impacts of Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone tsunamis in California under future sea-level rise," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-9, December.

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