IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcli/v11y2021i9d10.1038_s41558-021-01127-1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Extreme sea levels at different global warming levels

Author

Listed:
  • Claudia Tebaldi

    (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)

  • Roshanka Ranasinghe

    (IHE Delft institute for Water Education
    Deltares
    University of Twente)

  • Michalis Vousdoukas

    (Joint Research Centre (JRC))

  • D. J. Rasmussen

    (Princeton University)

  • Ben Vega-Westhoff

    (University of Illinois)

  • Ebru Kirezci

    (University of Melbourne)

  • Robert E. Kopp

    (Rutgers University)

  • Ryan Sriver

    (University of Illinois)

  • Lorenzo Mentaschi

    (Joint Research Centre (JRC)
    University of Bologna)

Abstract

The Paris agreement focused global climate mitigation policy on limiting global warming to 1.5 or 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. Consequently, projections of hazards and risk are increasingly framed in terms of global warming levels rather than emission scenarios. Here, we use a multimethod approach to describe changes in extreme sea levels driven by changes in mean sea level associated with a wide range of global warming levels, from 1.5 to 5 °C, and for a large number of locations, providing uniform coverage over most of the world’s coastlines. We estimate that by 2100 ~50% of the 7,000+ locations considered will experience the present-day 100-yr extreme-sea-level event at least once a year, even under 1.5 °C of warming, and often well before the end of the century. The tropics appear more sensitive than the Northern high latitudes, where some locations do not see this frequency change even for the highest global warming levels.

Suggested Citation

  • Claudia Tebaldi & Roshanka Ranasinghe & Michalis Vousdoukas & D. J. Rasmussen & Ben Vega-Westhoff & Ebru Kirezci & Robert E. Kopp & Ryan Sriver & Lorenzo Mentaschi, 2021. "Extreme sea levels at different global warming levels," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(9), pages 746-751, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:11:y:2021:i:9:d:10.1038_s41558-021-01127-1
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01127-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01127-1
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41558-021-01127-1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. A. Slangen & M. Carson & C. Katsman & R. van de Wal & A. Köhl & L. Vermeersen & D. Stammer, 2014. "Projecting twenty-first century regional sea-level changes," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 124(1), pages 317-332, May.
    2. Angélique Melet & Benoit Meyssignac & Rafael Almar & Gonéri Le Cozannet, 2018. "Under-estimated wave contribution to coastal sea-level rise," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(3), pages 234-239, March.
    3. J. L. Bamber & W. P. Aspinall, 2013. "An expert judgement assessment of future sea level rise from the ice sheets," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(4), pages 424-427, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alexandra Toimil & Iñigo J. Losada & Moisés Álvarez-Cuesta & Gonéri Cozannet, 2023. "Demonstrating the value of beaches for adaptation to future coastal flood risk," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    2. Kwadwo Boateng Prempeh, 2023. "The impact of financial development on renewable energy consumption: new insights from Ghana," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 1-13, December.
    3. Lu, Yashun & Li, Guiqiang, 2023. "Potential application of electrical performance enhancement methods in PV/T module," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 281(C).
    4. Qing Wang & Hanbing Xiong & Tingzhen Ming, 2022. "Methods of Large-Scale Capture and Removal of Atmospheric Greenhouse Gases," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-5, September.
    5. Mukhtarov, Shahriyar & Yüksel, Serhat & Dinçer, Hasan, 2022. "The impact of financial development on renewable energy consumption: Evidence from Turkey," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 187(C), pages 169-176.
    6. Díaz Baca, Manuel Francisco & Moreno Lerma, Leonardo & Triana Ángel, Natalia & Burkart, Stefan, 2024. "The relationships between land tenure, cattle production, and climate change – A systematic literature review," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    7. Rafael Almar & Julien Boucharel & Marcan Graffin & Gregoire Ondoa Abessolo & Gregoire Thoumyre & Fabrice Papa & Roshanka Ranasinghe & Jennifer Montano & Erwin W. J. Bergsma & Mohamed Wassim Baba & Fei, 2023. "Influence of El Niño on the variability of global shoreline position," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
    8. Shuyu Yang & Jiaju Lin & Xiongzhi Xue, 2024. "Climate Change May Increase the Impact of Coastal Flooding on Carbon Storage in China’s Coastal Terrestrial Ecosystems," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-21, November.
    9. Francis Miranda & Anna Beatriz Franco & Osvaldo Rezende & Bruno B. F. da Costa & Mohammad Najjar & Assed N. Haddad & Marcelo Miguez, 2023. "A GIS-Based Index of Physical Susceptibility to Flooding as a Tool for Flood Risk Management," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-22, July.
    10. Chin-Hsiang Cheng & Surender Dhanasekaran, 2022. "Design of a Slot-Spaced Permanent Magnet Linear Alternator Based on Numerical Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-22, June.
    11. Jinling Piao & Wen Chen & Jin-Soo Kim & Wen Zhou & Shangfeng Chen & Peng Hu & Xiaoqing Lan, 2023. "Future changes in rainy season characteristics over East China under continuous warming," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(9), pages 1-21, September.
    12. Sainan Cheng & Guohua Qu, 2023. "Research on the Effect of Digital Economy on Carbon Emissions under the Background of “Double Carbon”," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(6), pages 1-27, March.
    13. D. J. Rasmussen & Scott Kulp & Robert E. Kopp & Michael Oppenheimer & Benjamin H. Strauss, 2022. "Popular extreme sea level metrics can better communicate impacts," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 1-17, February.
    14. Yildirim, Mehmet Ali & Cebula, Artur & Sułowicz, Maciej, 2022. "A cooling design for photovoltaic panels – Water-based PV/T system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 256(C).
    15. He, J.Y. & Chan, P.W. & Li, Q.S. & Lee, C.W., 2022. "Characterizing coastal wind energy resources based on sodar and microwave radiometer observations," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tony E. Wong & Alexander M. R. Bakker & Klaus Keller, 2017. "Impacts of Antarctic fast dynamics on sea-level projections and coastal flood defense," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 144(2), pages 347-364, September.
    2. Jérémy Rohmer & Gonéri Cozannet & Jean-Charles Manceau, 2019. "Addressing ambiguity in probabilistic assessments of future coastal flooding using possibility distributions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 155(1), pages 95-109, July.
    3. Jasper Verschuur & Dewi Bars & Caroline A. Katsman & Sierd de Vries & Roshanka Ranasinghe & Sybren S. Drijfhout & Stefan G. J. Aarninkhof, 2020. "Implications of ambiguity in Antarctic ice sheet dynamics for future coastal erosion estimates: a probabilistic assessment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(2), pages 859-876, September.
    4. Le Bars, Dewi, 2018. "Uncertainty in sea level rise projections due to the dependence between contributors," Earth Arxiv uvw3s, Center for Open Science.
    5. Klaus Desmet & Robert E. Kopp & Scott A. Kulp & Dávid Krisztián Nagy & Michael Oppenheimer & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg & Benjamin H. Strauss, 2021. "Evaluating the Economic Cost of Coastal Flooding," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 444-486, April.
    6. D. J. Rasmussen & Scott Kulp & Robert E. Kopp & Michael Oppenheimer & Benjamin H. Strauss, 2022. "Popular extreme sea level metrics can better communicate impacts," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 1-17, February.
    7. Xiukang Wang, 2022. "Managing Land Carrying Capacity: Key to Achieving Sustainable Production Systems for Food Security," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-21, March.
    8. Rafael Almar & Julien Boucharel & Gregoire Ondoa Abessolo & Fabrice Papa & Erwin W. J. Bergsma, 2024. "Reply to: Coastal shoreline change assessments at global scales," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-3, December.
    9. Emily Ho & David V. Budescu & Valentina Bosetti & Detlef P. Vuuren & Klaus Keller, 2019. "Not all carbon dioxide emission scenarios are equally likely: a subjective expert assessment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 155(4), pages 545-561, August.
    10. Swen Jullien & Jérôme Aucan & Elodie Kestenare & Matthieu Lengaigne & Christophe Menkes, 2024. "Unveiling the global influence of tropical cyclones on extreme waves approaching coastal areas," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    11. Katzav, Joel & Thompson, Erica L. & Risbey, James & Stainforth, David A. & Bradley, Seamus & Frisch, Mathias, 2021. "On the appropriate and inappropriate uses of probability distributions in climate projections and some alternatives," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 112978, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    12. Hristos Karahalios, 2017. "Evaluating the knowledge of experts in the maritime regulatory field," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(4), pages 426-441, May.
    13. Delavane B. Diaz, 2015. "Integrated Assessment of Climate Catastrophes with Endogenous Uncertainty: Does the Risk of Ice Sheet Collapse Justify Precautionary Mitigation?," Working Papers 2015.64, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    14. Rafael Almar & Julien Boucharel & Marcan Graffin & Gregoire Ondoa Abessolo & Gregoire Thoumyre & Fabrice Papa & Roshanka Ranasinghe & Jennifer Montano & Erwin W. J. Bergsma & Mohamed Wassim Baba & Fei, 2023. "Influence of El Niño on the variability of global shoreline position," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
    15. Garcia-Jorcano, Laura & Sanchis-Marco, Lidia, 2024. "Forecasting the effect of extreme sea-level rise on financial market risk," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PB), pages 1-27.
    16. Kai Parker & Li Erikson & Jennifer Thomas & Kees Nederhoff & Patrick Barnard & Sanne Muis, 2023. "Relative contributions of water-level components to extreme water levels along the US Southeast Atlantic Coast from a regional-scale water-level hindcast," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(3), pages 2219-2248, July.
    17. Verschuur, Jasper & Le Bars, Dewi & Drijfhout, Sybren & Katsman, Caroline & de Vries, Sierd & Ranasinghe, Roshanka & Aarninkhof, Stefan, 2018. "Implications of ambiguity in Antarctic ice sheet dynamics for future coastal erosion estimates: a probabilistic assessment," Earth Arxiv dysza, Center for Open Science.
    18. World Health Organization, Foodborne Epidemiology Reference Group, Source Attribution Task Force, 2016. "Research Synthesis Methods in an Age of Globalized Risks: Lessons from the Global Burden of Foodborne Disease Expert Elicitation," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(2), pages 191-202, February.
    19. Alexander M. R. Bakker & Domitille Louchard & Klaus Keller, 2017. "Sources and implications of deep uncertainties surrounding sea-level projections," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 140(3), pages 339-347, February.
    20. Delavane Diaz & Klaus Keller, 2016. "A Potential Disintegration of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet: Implications for Economic Analyses of Climate Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 607-611, May.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:11:y:2021:i:9:d:10.1038_s41558-021-01127-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.