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Rapid escalation of coastal flood exposure in US municipalities from sea level rise

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  • Scott Kulp

    (Climate Central)

  • Benjamin H. Strauss

    (Climate Central)

Abstract

Rising sea levels are increasing the exposure of populations and infrastructure to coastal flooding. While earlier studies estimate magnitudes of future exposure or project rates of sea level rise, here, we estimate growth rates of exposure, likely to be a key factor in how effectively coastal communities can adapt. These rates may not correlate well with sea level rise rates due to varying patterns of topography and development. We integrate exposure assessments based on LiDAR elevation data with extreme flood event distributions and sea level rise projections to compute the expected annual exposure of population, housing, roads, and property value in 327 medium-to-large coastal municipalities circumscribing the contiguous USA, and identify those localities that could experience rapid exposure growth sometime this century. We define a rate threshold of 0.25% additive increase in expected annual exposure per year, based on its rarity of present-day exceedance. With unchecked carbon emissions under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, the number of cities exceeding the threshold reaches 33 (18–59, 90% CI) by 2050 and 90 (22–196) by 2100, including the cities of Boston and Miami. Sharp cuts under RCP 2.6 limit the end-of-century total to 28 (12–105), versus a baseline of 7 cities in 2000. The methods and results presented here offer a new way to illustrate the consequences of different emission scenarios or mitigation efforts, and locally assess the urgency of coastal adaptation measures.

Suggested Citation

  • Scott Kulp & Benjamin H. Strauss, 2017. "Rapid escalation of coastal flood exposure in US municipalities from sea level rise," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 142(3), pages 477-489, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:142:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-017-1963-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-1963-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mathew E. Hauer & Jason M. Evans & Deepak R. Mishra, 2016. "Millions projected to be at risk from sea-level rise in the continental United States," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(7), pages 691-695, July.
    2. Maya K. Buchanan & Robert E. Kopp & Michael Oppenheimer & Claudia Tebaldi, 2016. "Allowances for evolving coastal flood risk under uncertain local sea-level rise," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 137(3), pages 347-362, August.
    3. Robert M. DeConto & David Pollard, 2016. "Contribution of Antarctica to past and future sea-level rise," Nature, Nature, vol. 531(7596), pages 591-597, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Wanyun Shao & Hamed Moftakhari & Hamid Moradkhani, 2020. "Comparing public perceptions of sea level rise with scientific projections across five states of the U.S. Gulf Coast region," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(1), pages 317-335, November.
    2. Lilai Xu & Shengping Ding & Vilas Nitivattananon & Jianxiong Tang, 2021. "Long-Term Dynamic of Land Reclamation and Its Impact on Coastal Flooding: A Case Study in Xiamen, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-18, August.
    3. Christopher G. Siverd & Scott C. Hagen & Matthew V. Bilskie & DeWitt H. Braud & Robert R. Twilley, 2020. "Quantifying storm surge and risk reduction costs: a case study for Lafitte, Louisiana," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 161(1), pages 201-223, July.
    4. Christopher G. Siverd & Scott C. Hagen & Matthew V. Bilskie & DeWitt H. Braud & R. Hampton Peele & Madeline R. Foster-Martinez & Robert R. Twilley, 2019. "Coastal Louisiana landscape and storm surge evolution: 1850–2110," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 157(3), pages 445-468, December.
    5. Molinaroli, Emanuela & Guerzoni, Stefano & Suman, Daniel, 2018. "Adaptations to Sea Level Rise: A Tale of Two Cities – Venice and Miami," MarXiv 73a25, Center for Open Science.
    6. Mathew E. Hauer & Dean Hardy & Scott A. Kulp & Valerie Mueller & David J. Wrathall & Peter U. Clark, 2021. "Assessing population exposure to coastal flooding due to sea level rise," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-9, December.
    7. Ming Li & Fan Zhang & Samuel Barnes & Xiaohong Wang, 2020. "Assessing storm surge impacts on coastal inundation due to climate change: case studies of Baltimore and Dorchester County in Maryland," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(2), pages 2561-2588, September.
    8. Steven A. McAlpine & Jeremy R. Porter, 2018. "Estimating Recent Local Impacts of Sea-Level Rise on Current Real-Estate Losses: A Housing Market Case Study in Miami-Dade, Florida," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 37(6), pages 871-895, December.
    9. D. J. Rasmussen & Scott Kulp & Robert E. Kopp & Michael Oppenheimer & Benjamin H. Strauss, 2022. "Popular extreme sea level metrics can better communicate impacts," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 1-17, February.
    10. Samoray, Christopher & Hino, Miyuki & Siders, A.R. & Agopian, Armen & Mach, Katharine J., 2024. "Housing amenity and affordability shape floodplain development," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).

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