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Hydroclimatic changes in Alaska portrayed by a high-resolution regional climate simulation

Author

Listed:
  • Andrew J. Newman

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

  • Andrew J. Monaghan

    (University of Colorado)

  • Martyn P. Clark

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research
    University of Saskatchewan)

  • Kyoko Ikeda

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

  • Lulin Xue

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

  • Ethan D. Gutmann

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

  • Jeffrey R. Arnold

    (U. S. Army Corps of Engineers, Climate Preparedness and Resilience Programs)

Abstract

The Arctic has been warming faster than the global average during recent decades, and trends are projected to continue through the twenty-first century. Analysis of climate change impacts across the Arctic using dynamical models has almost exclusively been limited to outputs from global climate models or coarser regional climate models. Coarse resolution simulations limit the representation of physical processes, particularly in areas of complex topography and high land-surface heterogeneity. Here, current climate reference and future regional climate model simulations based on the RCP8.5 scenario over Alaska at 4 km grid spacing are compared to identify changes in snowfall and snowpack. In general, results show increases in total precipitation, large decreases in snowfall fractional contribution over 30% in some areas, decreases in snowpack season length by 50–100 days in lower elevations and along the southern Alaskan coastline, and decreases in snow water equivalent. However, increases in snowfall and snowpack of sometimes greater than 20% are evident for some colder northern areas and at the highest elevations in southern Alaska. The most significant changes in snow cover and snowfall fractional contributions occur during the spring and fall seasons. Finally, the spatial pattern of winter temperatures above freezing has small-scale spatial features tied to the topography. Such areas would not be resolved with coarser resolution regional or global climate model simulations.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew J. Newman & Andrew J. Monaghan & Martyn P. Clark & Kyoko Ikeda & Lulin Xue & Ethan D. Gutmann & Jeffrey R. Arnold, 2021. "Hydroclimatic changes in Alaska portrayed by a high-resolution regional climate simulation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 164(1), pages 1-21, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:164:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-021-02956-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-02956-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Keith N. Musselman & Martyn P. Clark & Changhai Liu & Kyoko Ikeda & Roy Rasmussen, 2017. "Slower snowmelt in a warmer world," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(3), pages 214-219, March.
    2. Keith N. Musselman & Flavio Lehner & Kyoko Ikeda & Martyn P. Clark & Andreas F. Prein & Changhai Liu & Mike Barlage & Roy Rasmussen, 2018. "Projected increases and shifts in rain-on-snow flood risk over western North America," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(9), pages 808-812, September.
    3. Julienne Stroeve & Mark Serreze & Marika Holland & Jennifer Kay & James Malanik & Andrew Barrett, 2012. "The Arctic’s rapidly shrinking sea ice cover: a research synthesis," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 110(3), pages 1005-1027, February.
    4. James A. Screen & Ian Simmonds, 2010. "The central role of diminishing sea ice in recent Arctic temperature amplification," Nature, Nature, vol. 464(7293), pages 1334-1337, April.
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