Effects of a Melting Arctic on Risk of Invasive Species Spread

This paper examines the risk for nonindigenous species spread from key trade partners in East Asia to the U.S. due to the potential opening of Arctic shipping lanes in the near future. Changes in risk primarily originate from expected increases in trade flows from Asian-Pacific countries since the Arctic shipping routes would reduce the sailing distances between East-Asian countries and the U.S. east coast compared to the current route via the Panama Canal. The changes in risk for species spread is assessed based on two components: the risk of species introduction, which correlated with changes in imports into the U.S., and the risk of species establishment, which is based on the levels of the climate similarity between the U.S. east coast and countries in East Asia. We find that the greatest increases in risk of invasion to the U.S. are from Japan, due to the high levels of climate matching between the U.S. east coast and Japan, as well as expected increases in U.S. imports from Japan resulting from decreased transportation and trade costs when the Arctic shipping routes are used. The increase in risk of invasion from China is also potentially high because of expected large quantities of imports into the U.S. and relatively high climate similarities between the two countries. On the other hand, there is negligible expected risk of invasion from Hong Kong and the Philippines. Relatively small changes in expected U.S. imports in tandem with very low climate similarity between the U.S. and both partners, leads to minimal potential for species introduction or establishment.