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Slower snowmelt in a warmer world

Author

Listed:
  • Keith N. Musselman

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

  • Martyn P. Clark

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

  • Changhai Liu

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

  • Kyoko Ikeda

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

  • Roy Rasmussen

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

Abstract

There is general consensus that projected warming will cause earlier snowmelt, but how snowmelt rates will respond to climate change is poorly known. We present snowpack observations from western North America illustrating that shallower snowpack melts earlier, and at lower rates, than deeper, later-lying snow-cover. The observations provide the context for a hypothesis of slower snowmelt in a warmer world. We test this hypothesis using climate model simulations for both a control time period and re-run with a future climate scenario, and find that the fraction of meltwater volume produced at high snowmelt rates is greatly reduced in a warmer climate. The reduction is caused by a contraction of the snowmelt season to a time of lower available energy, reducing by as much as 64% the snow-covered area exposed to energy sufficient to drive high snowmelt rates. These results have unresolved implications on soil moisture deficits, vegetation stress, and streamflow declines.

Suggested Citation

  • Keith N. Musselman & Martyn P. Clark & Changhai Liu & Kyoko Ikeda & Roy Rasmussen, 2017. "Slower snowmelt in a warmer world," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(3), pages 214-219, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:7:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1038_nclimate3225
    DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3225
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    Cited by:

    1. Maria Vorkauf & Christoph Marty & Ansgar Kahmen & Erika Hiltbrunner, 2021. "Past and future snowmelt trends in the Swiss Alps: the role of temperature and snowpack," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 165(3), pages 1-19, April.
    2. Marion Réveillet & Marie Dumont & Simon Gascoin & Matthieu Lafaysse & Pierre Nabat & Aurélien Ribes & Rafife Nheili & Francois Tuzet & Martin Ménégoz & Samuel Morin & Ghislain Picard & Paul Ginoux, 2022. "Black carbon and dust alter the response of mountain snow cover under climate change," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
    3. Rajesh R. Shrestha & Alex J. Cannon & Markus A. Schnorbus & Francis W. Zwiers, 2017. "Projecting future nonstationary extreme streamflow for the Fraser River, Canada," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 145(3), pages 289-303, December.
    4. Andrew J. Newman & Andrew J. Monaghan & Martyn P. Clark & Kyoko Ikeda & Lulin Xue & Ethan D. Gutmann & Jeffrey R. Arnold, 2021. "Hydroclimatic changes in Alaska portrayed by a high-resolution regional climate simulation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 164(1), pages 1-21, January.
    5. Jinxin Zhu & Xuerou Weng & Bing Guo & Xueting Zeng & Cong Dong, 2023. "Investigating Extreme Snowfall Changes in China Based on an Ensemble of High-Resolution Regional Climate Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-17, February.

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