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A comparison of changes in river runoff from multiple global and catchment-scale hydrological models under global warming scenarios of 1 °C, 2 °C and 3 °C

Author

Listed:
  • Simon N. Gosling

    (University of Nottingham)

  • Jamal Zaherpour

    (University of Nottingham)

  • Nick J. Mount

    (University of Nottingham)

  • Fred F. Hattermann

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)

  • Rutger Dankers

    (Met Office)

  • Berit Arheimer

    (Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI))

  • Lutz Breuer

    (Justus Liebig University
    Justus Liebig University)

  • Jie Ding

    (South University of Science and Technology of China
    Leibniz Hannover University)

  • Ingjerd Haddeland

    (Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate)

  • Rohini Kumar

    (UFZ-Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research)

  • Dipangkar Kundu

    (The University of Sydney)

  • Junguo Liu

    (South University of Science and Technology of China
    Beijing Forestry University)

  • Ann Griensven

    (Vrije Universiteit Brussel
    UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education)

  • Ted I. E. Veldkamp

    (Vrije Universiteit, Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM))

  • Tobias Vetter

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)

  • Xiaoyan Wang

    (Hohai University)

  • Xinxin Zhang

    (Beijing Forestry University)

Abstract

We present one of the first climate change impact assessments on river runoff that utilises an ensemble of global hydrological models (Glob-HMs) and an ensemble of catchment-scale hydrological models (Cat-HMs), across multiple catchments: the upper Amazon, Darling, Ganges, Lena, upper Mississippi, upper Niger, Rhine and Tagus. Relative changes in simulated mean annual runoff (MAR) and four indicators of high and low extreme flows are compared between the two ensembles. The ensemble median values of changes in runoff with three different scenarios of global-mean warming (1, 2 and 3 °C above pre-industrial levels) are generally similar between the two ensembles, although the ensemble spread is often larger for the Glob-HM ensemble. In addition the ensemble spread is normally larger than the difference between the two ensemble medians. Whilst we find compelling evidence for projected runoff changes for the Rhine (decrease), Tagus (decrease) and Lena (increase) with global warming, the sign and magnitude of change for the other catchments is unclear. Our model results highlight that for these three catchments in particular, global climate change mitigation, which limits global-mean temperature rise to below 2 °C above preindustrial levels, could avoid some of the hydrological hazards that could be seen with higher magnitudes of global warming.

Suggested Citation

  • Simon N. Gosling & Jamal Zaherpour & Nick J. Mount & Fred F. Hattermann & Rutger Dankers & Berit Arheimer & Lutz Breuer & Jie Ding & Ingjerd Haddeland & Rohini Kumar & Dipangkar Kundu & Junguo Liu & A, 2017. "A comparison of changes in river runoff from multiple global and catchment-scale hydrological models under global warming scenarios of 1 °C, 2 °C and 3 °C," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(3), pages 577-595, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:141:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-016-1773-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1773-3
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    Cited by:

    1. Shanshan Wen & Buda Su & Yanjun Wang & Jianqing Zhai & Hemin Sun & Ziyan Chen & Jinlong Huang & Anqian Wang & Tong Jiang, 2020. "Comprehensive evaluation of hydrological models for climate change impact assessment in the Upper Yangtze River Basin, China," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(3), pages 1207-1226, December.
    2. Shaochun Huang & Harsh Shah & Bibi S. Naz & Narayan Shrestha & Vimal Mishra & Prasad Daggupati & Uttam Ghimire & Tobias Vetter, 2020. "Impacts of hydrological model calibration on projected hydrological changes under climate change—a multi-model assessment in three large river basins," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(3), pages 1143-1164, December.
    3. Kyla M. Dahlin & Donald Akanga & Danica L. Lombardozzi & David E. Reed & Gabriela Shirkey & Cheyenne Lei & Michael Abraha & Jiquan Chen, 2020. "Challenging a Global Land Surface Model in a Local Socio-Environmental System," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-21, October.
    4. Anne Gädeke & Valentina Krysanova & Aashutosh Aryal & Jinfeng Chang & Manolis Grillakis & Naota Hanasaki & Aristeidis Koutroulis & Yadu Pokhrel & Yusuke Satoh & Sibyll Schaphoff & Hannes Müller Schmie, 2020. "Performance evaluation of global hydrological models in six large Pan-Arctic watersheds," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(3), pages 1329-1351, December.
    5. Zhansheng Li & Xiaolin Guo & Yuan Yang & Yang Hong & Zhongjing Wang & Liangzhi You, 2019. "Heatwave Trends and the Population Exposure Over China in the 21st Century as Well as Under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C Global Warmer Future Scenarios," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-21, June.
    6. Hamid Nouri & Farnoush Ghasempour, 2019. "An Experimental Test for Application of Analytical Model of Surge Flow under Drought and Wet Conditions in a Semi-Arid Region," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(6), pages 1969-1983, April.
    7. Alexander Kaune & Patricia López & Anouk Gevaert & Ted Veldkamp & Micha Werner & Charlotte Fraiture, 2020. "The Benefit of Using an Ensemble of Global Hydrological Models in Surface Water Availability for Irrigation Area Planning," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(7), pages 2221-2240, May.
    8. Jan Niel & E. Uytven & P. Willems, 2019. "Uncertainty Analysis of Climate Change Impact on River Flow Extremes Based on a Large Multi-Model Ensemble," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(12), pages 4319-4333, September.
    9. Valentina Krysanova & Jamal Zaherpour & Iulii Didovets & Simon N. Gosling & Dieter Gerten & Naota Hanasaki & Hannes Müller Schmied & Yadu Pokhrel & Yusuke Satoh & Qiuhong Tang & Yoshihide Wada, 2020. "How evaluation of global hydrological models can help to improve credibility of river discharge projections under climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(3), pages 1353-1377, December.
    10. Trnka, Miroslav & Vizina, Adam & Hanel, Martin & Balek, Jan & Fischer, Milan & Hlavinka, Petr & Semerádová, Daniela & Štěpánek, Petr & Zahradníček, Pavel & Skalák, Petr & Eitzinger, Josef & Dubrovský,, 2022. "Increasing available water capacity as a factor for increasing drought resilience or potential conflict over water resources under present and future climate conditions," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).

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