IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcli/v8y2018i9d10.1038_s41558-018-0245-3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Detection of continental-scale intensification of hourly rainfall extremes

Author

Listed:
  • Selma B. Guerreiro

    (Newcastle University)

  • Hayley J. Fowler

    (Newcastle University)

  • Renaud Barbero

    (Newcastle University
    Irstea, Mediterranean Ecosystems and Risks)

  • Seth Westra

    (University of Adelaide)

  • Geert Lenderink

    (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute)

  • Stephen Blenkinsop

    (Newcastle University)

  • Elizabeth Lewis

    (Newcastle University)

  • Xiao-Feng Li

    (Newcastle University)

Abstract

Temperature scaling studies suggest that hourly rainfall magnitudes might increase beyond thermodynamic expectations with global warming1–3; that is, above the Clausius–Clapeyron (CC) rate of ~6.5% °C−1. However, there is limited evidence of such increases in long-term observations. Here, we calculate continental-average changes in the magnitude and frequency of extreme hourly and daily rainfall observations from Australia over the years 1990–2013 and 1966–1989. Observed changes are compared with the uncertainty from natural variability and expected changes from CC scaling as a result of global mean surface temperature change. We show that increases in daily rainfall extremes are consistent with CC scaling, but are within the range of natural variability. In contrast, changes in the magnitude of hourly rainfall extremes are close to or exceed double the expected CC scaling, and are above the range of natural variability, exceeding CC × 3 in the tropical region (north of 23° S). These continental-scale changes in extreme rainfall are not explained by changes in the El Niño–Southern Oscillation or changes in the seasonality of extremes. Our results indicate that CC scaling on temperature provides a severe underestimate of observed changes in hourly rainfall extremes in Australia, with implications for assessing the impacts of extreme rainfall.

Suggested Citation

  • Selma B. Guerreiro & Hayley J. Fowler & Renaud Barbero & Seth Westra & Geert Lenderink & Stephen Blenkinsop & Elizabeth Lewis & Xiao-Feng Li, 2018. "Detection of continental-scale intensification of hourly rainfall extremes," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(9), pages 803-807, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:8:y:2018:i:9:d:10.1038_s41558-018-0245-3
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0245-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0245-3
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41558-018-0245-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Patrick Ray & Sungwook Wi & Andrew Schwarz & Matthew Correa & Minxue He & Casey Brown, 2020. "Vulnerability and risk: climate change and water supply from California’s Central Valley water system," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 161(1), pages 177-199, July.
    2. Conrad Wasko & Rory Nathan, 2019. "The local dependency of precipitation on historical changes in temperature," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 156(1), pages 105-120, September.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:8:y:2018:i:9:d:10.1038_s41558-018-0245-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.