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Projections of fire danger under climate change over France: where do the greatest uncertainties lie?

Author

Listed:
  • H. Fargeon

    (INRAE, Ecologie des Forêts Méditerranéennes (UR 629))

  • F. Pimont

    (INRAE, Ecologie des Forêts Méditerranéennes (UR 629))

  • N. Martin-StPaul

    (INRAE, Ecologie des Forêts Méditerranéennes (UR 629))

  • M. Caceres

    (Forest Sciences Center of Catalonia (CTFC)
    Center for Ecological Research and Forestry Applications (CREAF))

  • J. Ruffault

    (INRAE, Ecologie des Forêts Méditerranéennes (UR 629))

  • R. Barbero

    (INRAE, Mediterranean Ecosystems and Risks)

  • J-L. Dupuy

    (INRAE, Ecologie des Forêts Méditerranéennes (UR 629))

Abstract

Global warming is expected to increase droughts and heatwaves, and consequently fire danger in southern Europe in the forthcoming decades. However, an assessment of the uncertainties associated with this general trend at regional scales, relevant to decision-making, is still missing. This study aims at assessing potential climate change impacts on fire danger over France through the projection of the widely used Fire Weather Index (FWI) and at quantifying the different sources of climate-driven uncertainty associated with these projections. We used daily climate experiments covering the 1995–2098 period under two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) provided by the EURO-CORDEX initiative. Our results show an overall increase in FWI throughout the century, with the largest absolute increases in the Mediterranean area. Model uncertainty was very high in western France, previously identified as a potential fire-prone region under future climate. In contrast, large increases in FWI in the Mediterranean area showed low uncertainty across models. Besides, analyzing the natural variability of FWI revealed that extreme years under present-day climate could become much more frequent by the end of the century. The FWI is projected to emerge from the background of natural variability by mid-twenty-first century with a summer elevated fire danger three times more likely when summer temperature anomaly exceeds + 2 °C.

Suggested Citation

  • H. Fargeon & F. Pimont & N. Martin-StPaul & M. Caceres & J. Ruffault & R. Barbero & J-L. Dupuy, 2020. "Projections of fire danger under climate change over France: where do the greatest uncertainties lie?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 160(3), pages 479-493, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:160:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-019-02629-w
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-019-02629-w
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Aiguo Dai, 2013. "Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(1), pages 52-58, January.
    2. Aiguo Dai, 2013. "Erratum: Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(2), pages 171-171, February.
    3. Marco Turco & Juan José Rosa-Cánovas & Joaquín Bedia & Sonia Jerez & Juan Pedro Montávez & Maria Carmen Llasat & Antonello Provenzale, 2018. "Exacerbated fires in Mediterranean Europe due to anthropogenic warming projected with non-stationary climate-fire models," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-9, December.
    4. Julien Ruffault & Nicolas Martin-StPaul & Serge Rambal & Florent Mouillot, 2013. "Differential regional responses in drought length, intensity and timing to recent climate changes in a Mediterranean forested ecosystem," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(1), pages 103-117, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Marion Lestienne & Boris Vannière & Thomas Curt & Isabelle Jouffroy-Bapicot & Christelle Hély, 2022. "Climate-driven Mediterranean fire hazard assessments for 2020–2100 on the light of past millennial variability," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(1), pages 1-18, January.
    2. Sandrine Brèteau-Amores & Marielle Brunette & Christophe François & Antoine Leblois & Nicolas Martin-StPaul, 2021. "Index insurance for coping with drought-induced risk of production losses in French forests," Working Papers hal-03401881, HAL.

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