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Exacerbated fires in Mediterranean Europe due to anthropogenic warming projected with non-stationary climate-fire models

Author

Listed:
  • Marco Turco

    (University of Barcelona)

  • Juan José Rosa-Cánovas

    (University of Murcia)

  • Joaquín Bedia

    (Predictia Intelligent Data Solutions
    University of Cantabria)

  • Sonia Jerez

    (University of Murcia)

  • Juan Pedro Montávez

    (University of Murcia)

  • Maria Carmen Llasat

    (University of Barcelona)

  • Antonello Provenzale

    (National Research Council (CNR))

Abstract

The observed trend towards warmer and drier conditions in southern Europe is projected to continue in the next decades, possibly leading to increased risk of large fires. However, an assessment of climate change impacts on fires at and above the 1.5 °C Paris target is still missing. Here, we estimate future summer burned area in Mediterranean Europe under 1.5, 2, and 3 °C global warming scenarios, accounting for possible modifications of climate-fire relationships under changed climatic conditions owing to productivity alterations. We found that such modifications could be beneficial, roughly halving the fire-intensifying signals. In any case, the burned area is robustly projected to increase. The higher the warming level is, the larger is the increase of burned area, ranging from ~40% to ~100% across the scenarios. Our results indicate that significant benefits would be obtained if warming were limited to well below 2 °C.

Suggested Citation

  • Marco Turco & Juan José Rosa-Cánovas & Joaquín Bedia & Sonia Jerez & Juan Pedro Montávez & Maria Carmen Llasat & Antonello Provenzale, 2018. "Exacerbated fires in Mediterranean Europe due to anthropogenic warming projected with non-stationary climate-fire models," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-9, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:9:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-018-06358-z
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-06358-z
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    Cited by:

    1. Aguilera, Eduardo & Díaz-Gaona, Cipriano & García-Laureano, Raquel & Reyes-Palomo, Carolina & Guzmán, Gloria I. & Ortolani, Livia & Sánchez-Rodríguez, Manuel & Rodríguez-Estévez, Vicente, 2020. "Agroecology for adaptation to climate change and resource depletion in the Mediterranean region. A review," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    2. Bruno A. Aparício & João A. Santos & Teresa R. Freitas & Ana C. L. Sá & José M. C. Pereira & Paulo M. Fernandes, 2022. "Unravelling the effect of climate change on fire danger and fire behaviour in the Transboundary Biosphere Reserve of Meseta Ibérica (Portugal-Spain)," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 173(1), pages 1-20, July.
    3. Henne, Paul D. & Hawbaker, Todd J., 2023. "An aridity threshold model of fire sizes and annual area burned in extensively forested ecoregions of the western USA," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 477(C).
    4. Licia Felicioni & Antonín Lupíšek & Petr Hájek, 2020. "Major European Stressors and Potential of Available Tools for Assessment of Urban and Buildings Resilience," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-27, September.
    5. H. Fargeon & F. Pimont & N. Martin-StPaul & M. Caceres & J. Ruffault & R. Barbero & J-L. Dupuy, 2020. "Projections of fire danger under climate change over France: where do the greatest uncertainties lie?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 160(3), pages 479-493, June.
    6. Chao-Yuan Lin & Pei-Ying Shieh & Shao-Wei Wu & Po-Cheng Wang & Yung-Chau Chen, 2022. "Environmental indicators combined with risk analysis to evaluate potential wildfire incidence on the Dadu Plateau in Taiwan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 113(1), pages 287-313, August.
    7. Misal, Haleema & Varela, Elsa & Voulgarakis, Apostolos & Rovithakis, Anastasios & Grillakis, Manolis & Kountouris, Yiannis, 2023. "Assessing public preferences for a wildfire mitigation policy in Crete, Greece," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    8. Valentina Bacciu & Maria Hatzaki & Anna Karali & Adeline Cauchy & Christos Giannakopoulos & Donatella Spano & Elodie Briche, 2021. "Investigating the Climate-Related Risk of Forest Fires for Mediterranean Islands’ Blue Economy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-22, September.
    9. Chu, Long & Grafton, R. Quentin & Nguyen, Hai, 2022. "A global analysis of the break-even prices to reduce atmospheric carbon dioxide via forest plantation and avoided deforestation," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    10. Sergi Nuss-Girona & Emma Soy & Guillem Canaleta & Ona Alay & Rut Domènech & Núria Prat-Guitart, 2022. "Fire Flocks: Participating Farmers’ Perceptions after Five Years of Development," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-19, October.
    11. Stosic, Tatijana & Stosic, Borko, 2024. "Generalized weighted permutation entropy analysis of satellite hot-pixel time series in Brazilian biomes," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 636(C).

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