IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v157y2019i2d10.1007_s10584-019-02530-6.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Assessment of the Laurentian Great Lakes’ hydrological conditions in a changing climate

Author

Listed:
  • Edouard Mailhot

    (Université Laval
    Ministère de l’Environnement et de la Lutte contre les changements climatiques du Québec)

  • Biljana Music

    (Université Laval
    Ouranos - Consortium on Regional Climatology and Adaptation to Climate Change)

  • Daniel F. Nadeau

    (Université Laval - Department of Civil and Water Engineering)

  • Anne Frigon

    (Ouranos - Consortium on Regional Climatology and Adaptation to Climate Change)

  • Richard Turcotte

    (Ministère de l’Environnement et de la Lutte contre les changements climatiques du Québec)

Abstract

A set of 28 simulations from five regional climate models are used in this study to assess the Great Lakes’ water supply from 1953 to 2100 following emissions scenarios RCP4.5 and 8.5 with a focus on bi-weekly changes in the means and extremes of hydrological variables. Models are first evaluated by comparing annual cycles of precipitation, runoff, evaporation and net basin supply (NBS) with observations. Trends in mean values are then studied for each variable using Theil-Sen’s statistical test. Changes in extreme conditions are analyzed using generalized extreme values distributions for a reference period (1971–2000) and two future periods (2041–2070 and 2071–2100). Ensemble trend results show evaporation increases of 136 and 204 mm (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) over the Great Lakes between 1953 and 2100. Precipitation increases by 83 and 140 mm and runoff increases by 68 and 135 mm. Trends are not equally distributed throughout the year as seasonal changes differ greatly. As a result, Great Lakes net basin supply is expected to increase in winter and spring and decrease in summer. Over the entire year, NBS increases of 14 and 70 mm are projected for scenarios RCP4.5 and 8.5 respectively by the year 2100. An analysis of extreme values reveals that precipitation and NBS maxima increase by 11 to 27% and 1 to 9% respectively, while NBS minima decrease by 18 to 29% between 1971–2000 and 2041–2100.

Suggested Citation

  • Edouard Mailhot & Biljana Music & Daniel F. Nadeau & Anne Frigon & Richard Turcotte, 2019. "Assessment of the Laurentian Great Lakes’ hydrological conditions in a changing climate," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 157(2), pages 243-259, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:157:y:2019:i:2:d:10.1007_s10584-019-02530-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-019-02530-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-019-02530-6
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-019-02530-6?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Guangju Zhao & Georg Hörmann & Nicola Fohrer & Zengxin Zhang & Jianqing Zhai, 2010. "Streamflow Trends and Climate Variability Impacts in Poyang Lake Basin, China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(4), pages 689-706, March.
    2. Murray MacKay & Frank Seglenieks, 2013. "On the simulation of Laurentian Great Lakes water levels under projections of global climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(1), pages 55-67, March.
    3. Andrew Gronewold & Vincent Fortin & Brent Lofgren & Anne Clites & Craig Stow & Frank Quinn, 2013. "Coasts, water levels, and climate change: A Great Lakes perspective," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(4), pages 697-711, October.
    4. Biljana Music & Anne Frigon & Brent Lofgren & Richard Turcotte & Jean-François Cyr, 2015. "Present and future Laurentian Great Lakes hydroclimatic conditions as simulated by regional climate models with an emphasis on Lake Michigan-Huron," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 130(4), pages 603-618, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Xianghu Li & Qi Zhang & Chong-Yu Xu & Xuchun Ye, 2015. "The changing patterns of floods in Poyang Lake, China: characteristics and explanations," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 76(1), pages 651-666, March.
    2. Ye Tian & Yue-Ping Xu & Xu-Jie Zhang, 2013. "Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on River High Flows through Comparative Use of GR4J, HBV and Xinanjiang Models," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(8), pages 2871-2888, June.
    3. Panagiotis Angelidis & Fotios Maris & Nikos Kotsovinos & Vlassios Hrissanthou, 2012. "Computation of Drought Index SPI with Alternative Distribution Functions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(9), pages 2453-2473, July.
    4. Ruonan Wang & Wenqi Peng & Xiaobo Liu & Cuiling Jiang & Wenqiang Wu & Xuekai Chen, 2020. "Characteristics of Runoff Variations and Attribution Analysis in the Poyang Lake Basin over the Past 55 Years," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-23, January.
    5. Elizabeth A. Mack & Ethan Theuerkauf & Erin Bunting, 2020. "Coastal Typology: An Analysis of the Spatiotemporal Relationship between Socioeconomic Development and Shoreline Change," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(7), pages 1-18, July.
    6. Guixia Yan & Zhiyong Wu & Denghua Li & Heng Xiao, 2018. "A comparative frequency analysis of three standardized drought indices in the Poyang Lake basin, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 91(1), pages 353-374, March.
    7. Lacey A. Mason & Catherine M. Riseng & Andrew D. Gronewold & Edward S. Rutherford & Jia Wang & Anne Clites & Sigrid D. P. Smith & Peter B. McIntyre, 2016. "Fine-scale spatial variation in ice cover and surface temperature trends across the surface of the Laurentian Great Lakes," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 138(1), pages 71-83, September.
    8. Ali A. Assani & Raphaëlle Landry & Ouassila Azouaoui & Philippe Massicotte & Denis Gratton, 2016. "Comparison of the Characteristics (Frequency and Timing) of Drought and Wetness Indices of Annual Mean Water Levels in the Five North American Great Lakes," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(1), pages 359-373, January.
    9. Norton, Richard K. & David, Nina P. & Buckman, Stephen & Koman, Patricia D., 2018. "Overlooking the coast: Limited local planning for coastal area management along Michigan’s Great Lakes," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 183-203.
    10. Brian Thomas & James Famiglietti, 2015. "Sustainable Groundwater Management in the Arid Southwestern US: Coachella Valley, California," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(12), pages 4411-4426, September.
    11. Pennan Chinnasamy & Aashni Parikh, 2021. "Remote sensing-based assessment of Coastal Regulation Zones in India: a case study of Mumbai, India," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(5), pages 7931-7950, May.
    12. Biljana Music & Anne Frigon & Brent Lofgren & Richard Turcotte & Jean-François Cyr, 2015. "Present and future Laurentian Great Lakes hydroclimatic conditions as simulated by regional climate models with an emphasis on Lake Michigan-Huron," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 130(4), pages 603-618, June.
    13. Li Mo & Zhenguo Zhang & Jingjing Yao & Zeyu Ma & Xiaona Cong & Xinxiao Yu, 2024. "Analysis of Hydrological Changes in the Fuhe River Basin in the Context of Climate Change," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(17), pages 1-14, August.
    14. Dimitrios Myronidis & Dimitrios Stathis & Konstantinos Ioannou & Dimitrios Fotakis, 2012. "An Integration of Statistics Temporal Methods to Track the Effect of Drought in a Shallow Mediterranean Lake," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(15), pages 4587-4605, December.
    15. Xuchun Ye & Chong-Yu Xu & Qi Zhang & Jing Yao & Xianghu Li, 2018. "Quantifying the Human Induced Water Level Decline of China’s Largest Freshwater Lake from the Changing Underlying Surface in the Lake Region," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(4), pages 1467-1482, March.
    16. Ali Assani & Raphaëlle Landry & Ouassila Azouaoui & Philippe Massicotte & Denis Gratton, 2016. "Comparison of the Characteristics (Frequency and Timing) of Drought and Wetness Indices of Annual Mean Water Levels in the Five North American Great Lakes," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(1), pages 359-373, January.
    17. Xinjun Tu & Vijay Singh & Xiaohong Chen & Lu Chen & Qiang Zhang & Yong Zhao, 2015. "Intra-annual Distribution of Streamflow and Individual Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities in the Dongijang River Basin, China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(8), pages 2677-2695, June.
    18. Yonas Ghile & Paul Moody & Casey Brown, 2014. "Paleo-reconstructed net basin supply scenarios and their effect on lake levels in the upper great lakes," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 127(2), pages 305-319, November.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:157:y:2019:i:2:d:10.1007_s10584-019-02530-6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.