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Present and future Laurentian Great Lakes hydroclimatic conditions as simulated by regional climate models with an emphasis on Lake Michigan-Huron

Author

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  • Biljana Music
  • Anne Frigon
  • Brent Lofgren
  • Richard Turcotte
  • Jean-François Cyr

Abstract

Regional climate modelling represents an appealing approach to projecting Great Lakes water supplies under a changing climate. In this study, we investigate the response of the Great Lakes Basin to increasing greenhouse gas and aerosols emissions using an ensemble of sixteen climate change simulations generated by three different Regional Climate Models (RCMs): CRCM4, HadRM3 and WRFG. Annual and monthly means of simulated hydro-meteorological variables that affect Great Lakes levels are first compared to observation-based estimates. The climate change signal is then assessed by computing differences between simulated future (2041–2070) and present (1971–1999) climates. Finally, an analysis of the annual minima and maxima of the Net Basin Supply (NBS), derived from the simulated NBS components, is conducted using Generalized Extreme Value distribution. Results reveal notable model differences in simulated water budget components throughout the year, especially for the lake evaporation component. These differences are reflected in the resulting NBS. Although uncertainties in observation-based estimates are quite large, our analysis indicates that all three RCMs tend to underestimate NBS in late summer and fall, which is related to biases in simulated runoff, lake evaporation, and over-lake precipitation. The climate change signal derived from the total ensemble mean indicates no change in future mean annual NBS. However, our analysis suggests an amplification of the NBS annual cycle and an intensification of the annual NBS minima in future climate. This emphasizes the need for an adaptive management of water to minimize potential negative implications associated with more severe and frequent NBS minima. Copyright The Author(s) 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Biljana Music & Anne Frigon & Brent Lofgren & Richard Turcotte & Jean-François Cyr, 2015. "Present and future Laurentian Great Lakes hydroclimatic conditions as simulated by regional climate models with an emphasis on Lake Michigan-Huron," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 130(4), pages 603-618, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:130:y:2015:i:4:p:603-618
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1348-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. P. C. D. Milly & K. A. Dunne & A. V. Vecchia, 2005. "Global pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate," Nature, Nature, vol. 438(7066), pages 347-350, November.
    2. Murray MacKay & Frank Seglenieks, 2013. "On the simulation of Laurentian Great Lakes water levels under projections of global climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(1), pages 55-67, March.
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    1. Edouard Mailhot & Biljana Music & Daniel F. Nadeau & Anne Frigon & Richard Turcotte, 2019. "Assessment of the Laurentian Great Lakes’ hydrological conditions in a changing climate," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 157(2), pages 243-259, November.

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