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Characterizing transient temperature trajectories for assessing the value of achieving alternative temperature targets

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  • Gary W. Yohe

    (Wesleyan University)

Abstract

Trajectories of policy-driven transient temperatures are reported here for four different maximum temperature targets through 2100 and a “no-policy” baseline because it is they, and their associated manifestations in other impact and risk dimensions, that natural and human and natural systems see in real time as their common future unfolds. It follows that it is they that inform both the reactive and (for human systems) anticipatory responses that embedded decision-makers would contemplate in the future. Median pathways as well as 5th and 95th percentile alternatives for each set of scenarios are reported in decadal increments from 2010 through 2100. Two illustrations (agricultural yields and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change “reasons for concern”) are presented to provide provocative context within which to begin to see their potential value across a wide range of applications.

Suggested Citation

  • Gary W. Yohe, 2017. "Characterizing transient temperature trajectories for assessing the value of achieving alternative temperature targets," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 145(3), pages 469-479, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:145:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-017-2100-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2100-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. R. Warren & J. VanDerWal & J. Price & J. A. Welbergen & I. Atkinson & J. Ramirez-Villegas & T. J. Osborn & A. Jarvis & L. P. Shoo & S. E. Williams & J. Lowe, 2013. "Quantifying the benefit of early climate change mitigation in avoiding biodiversity loss," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(7), pages 678-682, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Xiyue Li & Gary Yohe, 2018. "Adaptation in an Uncertain World - Detection and Attribution of Climate Change Trends and Extreme Possibilities," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2018-008, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.

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