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Probabilistic climate change scenarios for viticultural potential in Québec

Author

Listed:
  • Philippe Roy

    (Ouranos)

  • Patrick Grenier

    (Ouranos)

  • Evelyne Barriault

    (Ministère de l’Agriculture, des Pêcheries et de l’Alimentation du Québec (MAPAQ))

  • Travis Logan

    (Ouranos)

  • Anne Blondlot

    (Ouranos)

  • Gaétan Bourgeois

    (Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada)

  • Diane Chaumont

    (Ouranos)

Abstract

Climate conditions for Québec’s viticultural potential (VP) during upcoming decades are estimated through high-resolution probabilistic climate scenarios (PCS) based on a large ensemble of simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). VP is investigated through four temperature-related indices identified as current limiting factors for cold, northern latitudes: length of frost-free season (CNFD), growing degree-days (DDB10), annual winter minimum temperature (AWMT), and annual number of very cold days (ANVCD). Results show that by 2040–2050, most of southern Québec can reasonably expect favorable climatic conditions, with enough consecutive frost-free days and growing degree-days for growing current hybrid-grape varieties, as well as some Vitis vinifera grape varieties. Regions with new VP are identified, for example southern Outaouais and along the St-Lawrence River. Cold winter temperatures remain problematic, but technical solutions to this limiting factor exist.

Suggested Citation

  • Philippe Roy & Patrick Grenier & Evelyne Barriault & Travis Logan & Anne Blondlot & Gaétan Bourgeois & Diane Chaumont, 2017. "Probabilistic climate change scenarios for viticultural potential in Québec," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 143(1), pages 43-58, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:143:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-017-1960-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-1960-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Matthias Themeßl & Andreas Gobiet & Georg Heinrich, 2012. "Empirical-statistical downscaling and error correction of regional climate models and its impact on the climate change signal," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 112(2), pages 449-468, May.
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