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An investigation of future fuel load and fire weather in Australia

Author

Listed:
  • Hamish Clarke

    (University of New South Wales
    Climate and Atmospheric Science Branch, NSW Office of Environment and Heritage
    University Wollongong)

  • Andrew J. Pitman

    (University of New South Wales)

  • Jatin Kala

    (University of New South Wales)

  • Claire Carouge

    (University of New South Wales)

  • Vanessa Haverd

    (CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research)

  • Jason P. Evans

    (University of New South Wales)

Abstract

We present an assessment of the impact of future climate change on two key drivers of fire risk in Australia, fire weather and fuel load. Fire weather conditions are represented by the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI), calculated from a 12-member regional climate model ensemble. Fuel load is predicted from net primary production, simulated using a land surface model forced by the same regional climate model ensemble. Mean annual fine litter is projected to increase across all ensemble members, by 1.2 to 1.7 t ha−1 in temperate areas, 0.3 to 0.5 t ha−1 in grassland areas and 0.7 to 1.1 t ha−1 in subtropical areas. Ensemble changes in annual cumulative FFDI vary widely, from 57 to 550 in temperate areas, −186 to 1372 in grassland areas and −231 to 907 in subtropical areas. These results suggest that uncertainty in FFDI projections will be underestimated if only a single driving model is used. The largest increases in fuel load and fire weather are projected to occur in spring. Deriving fuel load from a land surface model may be possible in other regions, when this information is not directly available from climate model outputs.

Suggested Citation

  • Hamish Clarke & Andrew J. Pitman & Jatin Kala & Claire Carouge & Vanessa Haverd & Jason P. Evans, 2016. "An investigation of future fuel load and fire weather in Australia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 139(3), pages 591-605, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:139:y:2016:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-016-1808-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1808-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lasse Loepfe & Jordi Martinez-Vilalta & Josep Piñol, 2012. "Management alternatives to offset climate change effects on Mediterranean fire regimes in NE Spain," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 115(3), pages 693-707, December.
    2. Tobias Lung & Alessandro Dosio & William Becker & Carlo Lavalle & Laurens Bouwer, 2013. "Assessing the influence of climate model uncertainty on EU-wide climate change impact indicators," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(1), pages 211-227, September.
    3. Michael Grose & Paul Fox-Hughes & Rebecca Harris & Nathaniel Bindoff, 2014. "Changes to the drivers of fire weather with a warming climate – a case study of southeast Tasmania," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 124(1), pages 255-269, May.
    4. J. Bedia & S. Herrera & D. Martín & N. Koutsias & J. Gutiérrez, 2013. "Robust projections of Fire Weather Index in the Mediterranean using statistical downscaling," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(1), pages 229-247, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Eliott, Martyn G. & Venn, Tyron J. & Lewis, Tom & Farrar, Michael & Srivastava, Sanjeev K., 2021. "A prescribed fire cost model for public lands in south-east Queensland," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).

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