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Natural hazards in Australia: extreme bushfire

Author

Listed:
  • Jason J. Sharples

    (University of New South Wales)

  • Geoffrey J. Cary

    (The Australian National University)

  • Paul Fox-Hughes

    (Bureau of Meteorology)

  • Scott Mooney

    (University of New South Wales)

  • Jason P. Evans

    (University of New South Wales)

  • Michael-Shawn Fletcher

    (University of Melbourne)

  • Mike Fromm

    (US Naval Research Laboratory)

  • Pauline F. Grierson

    (University of Western Australia)

  • Rick McRae

    (Australian Capital Territory Emergency Services Agency)

  • Patrick Baker

    (University of Melbourne)

Abstract

Bushfires are one of the most frequent natural hazards experienced in Australia. Fires play an important role in shaping the landscape and its ecological dynamics, but may also have devastating effects that cause human injuries and fatalities, as well as broad-scale environmental damage. While there has been considerable effort to quantify changes in the occurrence of bushfire in Australia, a comprehensive assessment of the most extreme bushfire cases, which exact the greatest economic and environmental impacts, is lacking. In this paper we reflect upon recently developed understanding of bushfire dynamics to consider (i) historical changes in the occurrence of extreme bushfires, and (ii) the potential for increasing frequency in the future under climate change projections. The science of extreme bushfires is still a developing area, thus our conclusions about emerging patterns in their occurrence should be considered tentative. Nonetheless, historical information on noteworthy bushfire events suggests an increased occurrence in recent decades. Based on our best current understanding of how extreme bushfires develop, there is strong potential for them to increase in frequency in the future. As such there is a pressing need for a greater understanding of these powerful and often destructive phenomena.

Suggested Citation

  • Jason J. Sharples & Geoffrey J. Cary & Paul Fox-Hughes & Scott Mooney & Jason P. Evans & Michael-Shawn Fletcher & Mike Fromm & Pauline F. Grierson & Rick McRae & Patrick Baker, 2016. "Natural hazards in Australia: extreme bushfire," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 139(1), pages 85-99, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:139:y:2016:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-016-1811-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1811-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Brian Ashe & K. J. McAneney & A. J. Pitman, 2009. "Total cost of fire in Australia," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(2), pages 121-136, March.
    2. Michael Grose & Paul Fox-Hughes & Rebecca Harris & Nathaniel Bindoff, 2014. "Changes to the drivers of fire weather with a warming climate – a case study of southeast Tasmania," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 124(1), pages 255-269, May.
    3. Ying Tang & Shiyuan Zhong & Lifeng Luo & Xindi Bian & Warren E. Heilman & Julie Winkler, 2015. "The Potential Impact of Regional Climate Change on Fire Weather in the United States," Annals of the American Association of Geographers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 105(1), pages 1-21, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yan Yu & Jiafu Mao & Stan D. Wullschleger & Anping Chen & Xiaoying Shi & Yaoping Wang & Forrest M. Hoffman & Yulong Zhang & Eric Pierce, 2022. "Machine learning–based observation-constrained projections reveal elevated global socioeconomic risks from wildfire," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    2. Erin I. Walsh & Ginny Sargent & Burcu Cevik-Compiegne & Michelle Roberts & Nicola Palfrey & Laura Gooyers-Bourke & Sotiris Vardoulakis & Karima Laachir, 2022. "Bushfire Smoke and Children’s Health—Exploring a Communication Gap," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(19), pages 1-11, September.
    3. A. R. Siders & Idowu Ajibade, 2021. "Introduction: Managed retreat and environmental justice in a changing climate," Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, Springer;Association of Environmental Studies and Sciences, vol. 11(3), pages 287-293, September.
    4. Simone Ruane & Mohammad Shahidul Hasan Swapan & Courtney Babb, 2020. "Disaster Risk Reduction in Bushfire Prone Areas: Challenges for an Integrated Land Use Planning Policy Regime," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-21, December.
    5. Anthony S. Kiem & Fiona Johnson & Seth Westra & Albert Dijk & Jason P. Evans & Alison O’Donnell & Alexandra Rouillard & Cameron Barr & Jonathan Tyler & Mark Thyer & Doerte Jakob & Fitsum Woldemeskel &, 2016. "Natural hazards in Australia: droughts," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 139(1), pages 37-54, November.
    6. Sonia Akter & R. Quentin Grafton, 2021. "Do fires discriminate? Socio-economic disadvantage, wildfire hazard exposure and the Australian 2019–20 ‘Black Summer’ fires," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 165(3), pages 1-21, April.
    7. Marina Ienna & Amelia Rofe & Monica Gendi & Heather E. Douglas & Michelle Kelly & Matthew W. Hayward & Alex Callen & Kaya Klop-Toker & Robert J. Scanlon & Lachlan G. Howell & Andrea S. Griffin, 2022. "The Relative Role of Knowledge and Empathy in Predicting Pro-Environmental Attitudes and Behavior," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-21, April.
    8. Saeed Siyal & Munawar Javed Ahmed & Riaz Ahmad & Bushra Shahzad Khan & Chunlin Xin, 2021. "Factors Influencing Green Purchase Intention: Moderating Role of Green Brand Knowledge," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(20), pages 1-22, October.
    9. Morgan J. Breen & Abiy S. Kebede & Carola S. König, 2022. "The Safe Development Paradox in Flood Risk Management: A Critical Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-18, December.
    10. Thomas O’Dwyer & Michael J. Abramson & Lahn Straney & Farhad Salimi & Fay Johnston & Amanda J. Wheeler & David O’Keeffe & Anjali Haikerwal & Fabienne Reisen & Ingrid Hopper & Martine Dennekamp, 2021. "Sub-Clinical Effects of Outdoor Smoke in Affected Communities," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(3), pages 1-10, January.
    11. Seth Westra & Christopher J. White & Anthony S. Kiem, 2016. "Introduction to the special issue: historical and projected climatic changes to Australian natural hazards," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 139(1), pages 1-19, November.
    12. Bhandari, Pratik & Creighton, Douglas & Gong, Jinzhe & Boyle, Carol & Law, Kris M.Y., 2023. "Evolution of cyber-physical-human water systems: Challenges and gaps," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    13. Glenn P. Costin, 2021. "Bushfire: Retrofitting Rural and Urban Fringe Structures—Implications of Current Engineering Data," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-18, June.
    14. Andrea Duane & Marc Castellnou & Lluís Brotons, 2021. "Towards a comprehensive look at global drivers of novel extreme wildfire events," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 165(3), pages 1-21, April.

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