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Economics of downscaled climate-induced changes in cropland, with projections to 2050: evidence from Yolo County California

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  • Hyunok Lee
  • Daniel Sumner

Abstract

This article establishes quantitative relationships between the evolution of climate and cropland using daily climate data for a century and data on allocation of land across crops for six decades in a specific agro-climatic region of California. These relationships are applied to project how climate scenarios reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change would drive cropland patterns into 2050. Projections of warmer winters, particularly from 2035 to 2050, cause lower wheat area and more alfalfa and tomato area. Only marginal changes in area were projected for tree and vine crops, in part because although lower, chill hours remain above critical values. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Hyunok Lee & Daniel Sumner, 2015. "Economics of downscaled climate-induced changes in cropland, with projections to 2050: evidence from Yolo County California," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 132(4), pages 723-737, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:132:y:2015:i:4:p:723-737
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1436-9
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    1. Clark, Todd E. & West, Kenneth D., 2006. "Using out-of-sample mean squared prediction errors to test the martingale difference hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 155-186.
    2. Mehta, Vishal K. & Haden, Van R. & Joyce, Brian A. & Purkey, David R. & Jackson, Louise E., 2013. "Irrigation demand and supply, given projections of climate and land-use change, in Yolo County, California," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 70-82.
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    8. Olivier Deschênes & Michael Greenstone, 2007. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Output and Random Fluctuations in Weather," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 354-385, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Krah, Kwabena, 2022. "Maize price variability, land use change, and forestloss: evidence from Ghana," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322247, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. Cui, Xiaomeng & Zhong, Zheng, 2024. "Climate change, cropland adjustments, and food security: Evidence from China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    3. Amber Kerr & Jake Dialesandro & Kerri Steenwerth & Nathan Lopez-Brody & Emile Elias, 2018. "Vulnerability of California specialty crops to projected mid-century temperature changes," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 148(3), pages 419-436, June.
    4. Cui, X., 2018. "Adaptation to Climate Change: Evidence from US Acreage Response," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277094, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    5. Jisang Yu & Gyuhyeong Goh, 2022. "Estimating temperature impacts on perennial crop losses in California: Insights from insurance data," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 44(3), pages 1409-1423, September.
    6. Bertone Oehninger, Ernst & Lin Lawell, C.-Y. Cynthia & Sanchirico, James & Springborn, Michael, 2016. "The effects of climate change on groundwater extraction for agriculture and land-use change," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235724, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. Cui, Xiaomeng, 2020. "Climate change and adaptation in agriculture: Evidence from US cropping patterns," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).

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