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Glacial mass balance changes in the Karakoram and Himalaya based on CMIP5 multi-model climate projections

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  • Rajiv Chaturvedi
  • Anil Kulkarni
  • Yogesh Karyakarte
  • Jaideep Joshi
  • G. Bala

Abstract

The impact of future climate change on the glaciers in the Karakoram and Himalaya (KH) is investigated using CMIP5 multi-model temperature and precipitation projections, and a relationship between glacial accumulation-area ratio and mass balance developed for the region based on the last 30 to 40 years of observational data. We estimate that the current glacial mass balance (year 2000) for the entire KH region is -6.6 ± 1 Gta −1 , which decreases about sixfold to -35 ± 2 Gta −1 by the 2080s under the high emission scenario of RCP8.5. However, under the low emission scenario of RCP2.6 the glacial mass loss only doubles to -12 ± 2 Gta −1 by the 2080s. We also find that 10.6 and 27 % of the glaciers could face ‘eventual disappearance’ by the end of the century under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 respectively, underscoring the threat to water resources under high emission scenarios. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Rajiv Chaturvedi & Anil Kulkarni & Yogesh Karyakarte & Jaideep Joshi & G. Bala, 2014. "Glacial mass balance changes in the Karakoram and Himalaya based on CMIP5 multi-model climate projections," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(2), pages 315-328, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:123:y:2014:i:2:p:315-328
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-1052-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Thomas Jacob & John Wahr & W. Tad Pfeffer & Sean Swenson, 2012. "Recent contributions of glaciers and ice caps to sea level rise," Nature, Nature, vol. 482(7386), pages 514-518, February.
    2. Walter Immerzeel & L. Beek & M. Konz & A. Shrestha & M. Bierkens, 2012. "Hydrological response to climate change in a glacierized catchment in the Himalayas," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 110(3), pages 721-736, February.
    3. Andreas Kääb & Etienne Berthier & Christopher Nuth & Julie Gardelle & Yves Arnaud, 2012. "Contrasting patterns of early twenty-first-century glacier mass change in the Himalayas," Nature, Nature, vol. 488(7412), pages 495-498, August.
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