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Sediment delivery to sustain the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta under climate change and anthropogenic impacts

Author

Listed:
  • Jessica L. Raff

    (Vanderbilt University)

  • Steven L. Goodbred

    (Vanderbilt University)

  • Jennifer L. Pickering

    (The University of Memphis)

  • Ryan S. Sincavage

    (Radford University)

  • John C. Ayers

    (Vanderbilt University)

  • Md. Saddam Hossain

    (The University of Memphis)

  • Carol A. Wilson

    (Louisiana State University)

  • Chris Paola

    (University of Minnesota)

  • Michael S. Steckler

    (Columbia University)

  • Dhiman R. Mondal

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

  • Jean-Louis Grimaud

    (PSL University/ MINES Paris)

  • Celine Jo Grall

    (Columbia University
    La Rochelle University)

  • Kimberly G. Rogers

    (University of Colorado)

  • Kazi Matin Ahmed

    (University of Dhaka)

  • Syed Humayun Akhter

    (Bangladesh Open University, Board Bazar)

  • Brandee N. Carlson

    (University of Houston)

  • Elizabeth L. Chamberlain

    (Wageningen University)

  • Meagan Dejter

    (Vanderbilt University)

  • Jonathan M. Gilligan

    (Vanderbilt University)

  • Richard P. Hale

    (Old Dominion University)

  • Mahfuzur R. Khan

    (University of Dhaka)

  • Md. Golam Muktadir

    (Bangladesh University of Professionals)

  • Md. Munsur Rahman

    (Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology)

  • Lauren A. Williams

    (Vanderbilt University)

Abstract

The principal nature-based solution for offsetting relative sea-level rise in the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta is the unabated delivery, dispersal, and deposition of the rivers’ ~1 billion-tonne annual sediment load. Recent hydrological transport modeling suggests that strengthening monsoon precipitation in the 21st century could increase this sediment delivery 34-60%; yet other studies demonstrate that sediment could decline 15-80% if planned dams and river diversions are fully implemented. We validate these modeled ranges by developing a comprehensive field-based sediment budget that quantifies the supply of Ganges-Brahmaputra river sediment under varying Holocene climate conditions. Our data reveal natural responses in sediment supply comparable to previously modeled results and suggest that increased sediment delivery may be capable of offsetting accelerated sea-level rise. This prospect for a naturally sustained Ganges-Brahmaputra delta presents possibilities beyond the dystopian future often posed for this system, but the implementation of currently proposed dams and diversions would preclude such opportunities.

Suggested Citation

  • Jessica L. Raff & Steven L. Goodbred & Jennifer L. Pickering & Ryan S. Sincavage & John C. Ayers & Md. Saddam Hossain & Carol A. Wilson & Chris Paola & Michael S. Steckler & Dhiman R. Mondal & Jean-Lo, 2023. "Sediment delivery to sustain the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta under climate change and anthropogenic impacts," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-38057-9
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-38057-9
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    Cited by:

    1. Elizabeth L. Chamberlain & Steven L. Goodbred & Michael S. Steckler & Jakob Wallinga & Tony Reimann & Syed Humayun Akhter & Rachel Bain & Golam Muktadir & Abdullah Al Nahian & F. M. Arifur Rahman & Ma, 2024. "Cascading hazards of a major Bengal basin earthquake and abrupt avulsion of the Ganges River," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.

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