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Predicting the future climatic suitability for cocoa farming of the world’s leading producer countries, Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire

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  • P. Läderach
  • A. Martinez-Valle
  • G. Schroth
  • N. Castro

Abstract

Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire are the world’s leading cocoa (Thebroma cacao) producing countries; together they produce 53 % of the world’s cocoa. Cocoa contributes 7.5 % of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Côte d’Ivoire and 3.4 % of that of Ghana and is an important cash crop for the rural population in the forest zones of these countries. If progressive climate change affected the climatic suitability for cocoa in West Africa, this would have implications for global cocoa output as well as the national economies and farmer livelihoods, with potential repercussions for forests and natural habitat as cocoa growing regions expand, shrink or shift. The objective of this paper is to present future climate scenarios for the main cocoa growing regions of Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire and to predict their impact on the relative suitability of these regions for growing cocoa. These analyses are intended to support the respective countries and supply chain actors in developing strategies for reducing the vulnerability of the cocoa sector to climate change. Based on the current distribution of cocoa growing areas and climate change predictions from 19 Global Circulation Models, we predict changes in relative climatic suitability for cocoa for 2050 using an adapted MAXENT model. According to the model, some current cocoa producing areas will become unsuitable (Lagunes and Sud-Comoe in Côte d’Ivoire) requiring crop change, while other areas will require adaptations in agronomic management, and in yet others the climatic suitability for growing cocoa will increase (Kwahu Plateu in Ghana and southwestern Côte d’Ivoire). We recommend the development of site-specific strategies to reduce the vulnerability of cocoa farmers and the sector to future climate change. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Suggested Citation

  • P. Läderach & A. Martinez-Valle & G. Schroth & N. Castro, 2013. "Predicting the future climatic suitability for cocoa farming of the world’s leading producer countries, Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 119(3), pages 841-854, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:119:y:2013:i:3:p:841-854
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0774-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Oecd, 2009. "Climate Change and Africa," OECD Journal: General Papers, OECD Publishing, vol. 2009(1), pages 5-35.
    2. Justin Sheffield & Eric F. Wood & Michael L. Roderick, 2012. "Little change in global drought over the past 60 years," Nature, Nature, vol. 491(7424), pages 435-438, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Götz Schroth & Peter Läderach & Armando Isaac Martinez-Valle & Christian Bunn, 2017. "From site-level to regional adaptation planning for tropical commodities: cocoa in West Africa," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 22(6), pages 903-927, August.
    2. Hirons, M. & Robinson, E. & McDermott, C. & Morel, A. & Asare, R. & Boyd, E. & Gonfa, T. & Gole, T.W. & Malhi, Y. & Mason, J. & Norris, K., 2018. "Understanding Poverty in Cash-crop Agro-forestry Systems: Evidence from Ghana and Ethiopia," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 31-41.
    3. Peter Läderach & Julian Ramirez–Villegas & Carlos Navarro-Racines & Carlos Zelaya & Armando Martinez–Valle & Andy Jarvis, 2017. "Climate change adaptation of coffee production in space and time," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(1), pages 47-62, March.
    4. Akpoti, Komlavi & Kabo-bah, Amos T. & Zwart, Sander J., 2019. "Agricultural land suitability analysis: State-of-the-art and outlooks for integration of climate change analysis," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 172-208.
    5. Abdulai, Issaka & Hoffmann, Munir P. & Jassogne, Laurence & Asare, Richard & Graefe, Sophie & Tao, Hsiao-Hang & Muilerman, Sander & Vaast, Philippe & Van Asten, Piet & Läderach, Peter & Rötter, Reimun, 2020. "Variations in yield gaps of smallholder cocoa systems and the main determining factors along a climate gradient in Ghana," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    6. Viviana Ceccarelli & Tobias Fremout & Eduardo Chavez & David Argüello & Rey Gastón Loor Solórzano & Ignacio Antonio Sotomayor Cantos & Evert Thomas, 2024. "Vulnerability to climate change of cultivated and wild cacao in Ecuador," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 177(7), pages 1-22, July.
    7. Tosto, Ambra & Morales, Alejandro & Rahn, Eric & Evers, Jochem B. & Zuidema, Pieter A. & Anten, Niels P.R., 2023. "Simulating cocoa production: A review of modelling approaches and gaps," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    8. Kouassi Jean-Luc & Wandan Narcisse & Mbow Cheikh, 2022. "Observed climate trends, perceived impacts and community adaptation practices in Côte d’Ivoire," Environmental & Socio-economic Studies, Sciendo, vol. 10(3), pages 43-58, September.
    9. Wongnaa, Camillus Abawiera & Babu, Suresh, 2020. "Building resilience to shocks of climate change in Ghana's cocoa production and its effect on productivity and incomes," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    10. Priscilla Wainaina & Peter A. Minang & Lalisa Duguma & Kennedy Muthee, 2021. "A Review of the Trade-Offs across Different Cocoa Production Systems in Ghana," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-18, October.
    11. Y. R. Waarts & V. Janssen & R. Aryeetey & D. Onduru & D. Heriyanto & S. Tin Aprillya & A. N’Guessan & L. Courbois & D. Bakker & V. J. Ingram, 2021. "Multiple pathways towards achieving a living income for different types of smallholder tree-crop commodity farmers," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 13(6), pages 1467-1496, December.
    12. Kirstie Cadger & Andrews K. Quaicoo & Evans Dawoe & Marney E. Isaac, 2016. "Development Interventions and Agriculture Adaptation: A Social Network Analysis of Farmer Knowledge Transfer in Ghana," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-14, July.
    13. Fred A. Yamoah & James S. Kaba & David Botchie & Joseph Amankwah-Amoah, 2021. "Working towards Sustainable Innovation for Green Waste Benefits: The Role of Awareness of Consequences in the Adoption of Shaded Cocoa Agroforestry in Ghana," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-14, January.

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