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Vulnerability to climate change of cultivated and wild cacao in Ecuador

Author

Listed:
  • Viviana Ceccarelli

    (Bioversity International
    University of Leeds)

  • Tobias Fremout

    (Bioversity International
    KU Leuven)

  • Eduardo Chavez

    (Escuela Superior Politécnica del Litoral, ESPOL)

  • David Argüello

    (Escuela Superior Politécnica del Litoral, ESPOL
    KU Leuven)

  • Rey Gastón Loor Solórzano

    (Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Agropecuarias (INIAP), Programa Nacional de Cacao Y Café (PNCC), Estación Experimental Tropical Pichilingue (EETP))

  • Ignacio Antonio Sotomayor Cantos

    (Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Agropecuarias (INIAP), Programa Nacional de Cacao Y Café (PNCC), Estación Experimental Tropical Pichilingue (EETP))

  • Evert Thomas

    (Bioversity International)

Abstract

Climate change is expected to impact cacao cultivation in Ecuador, the fifth largest cacao producing country in the world and largest exporter of fine flavour cacao. The objective of this study was to evaluate the future impact of climate change on the suitable distribution of cultivated and wild cacao and identify areas where climate change tolerant genotypes may occur in Ecuador. Using 26,152 presence points for cultivated cacao and 95 presence points for wild cacao, we modelled the present suitability distribution of cultivated and wild cacao and performed future climate projections under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0) and two time periods (2050s and 2070s). For both cultivated and wild cacao, we constructed six different ensemble models employing different filtering methods for presence points, we projected each ensemble model to future climatic conditions, and we then built the final maps of present distribution and future projections based on the majority-vote criterion. Our future projections predict a 8–16% contraction and 19–21% expansion of the currently suitable area of cultivated cacao, while wild cacao is expected to maintain most of its suitable area and experience a further 7–12% expansion in the future. Ecogeographical zones are predicted to change in 23-33% of the combined distributions of cultivated and wild cacao. We identified the areas in Ecuador where populations of climate change tolerant genotypes are expected to occur. Interventions to promote adaptation to climate change will be required in cacao cultivation areas that are expected to be impacted by climate change in Ecuador, including the use of tolerant genotypes.

Suggested Citation

  • Viviana Ceccarelli & Tobias Fremout & Eduardo Chavez & David Argüello & Rey Gastón Loor Solórzano & Ignacio Antonio Sotomayor Cantos & Evert Thomas, 2024. "Vulnerability to climate change of cultivated and wild cacao in Ecuador," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 177(7), pages 1-22, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:177:y:2024:i:7:d:10.1007_s10584-024-03756-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03756-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Zuidema, Pieter A. & Leffelaar, Peter A. & Gerritsma, Wouter & Mommer, Liesje & Anten, Niels P.R., 2005. "A physiological production model for cocoa (Theobroma cacao): model presentation, validation and application," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 84(2), pages 195-225, May.
    2. P. Läderach & A. Martinez-Valle & G. Schroth & N. Castro, 2013. "Predicting the future climatic suitability for cocoa farming of the world’s leading producer countries, Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 119(3), pages 841-854, August.
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