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Comparison of three methods for estimating the sea level rise effect on storm surge flooding

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  • Keqi Zhang
  • Yuepeng Li
  • Huiqing Liu
  • Hongzhou Xu
  • Jian Shen

Abstract

Two linear methods, including the simple linear addition and linear addition by expansion, and numerical simulations were employed to estimate storm surges and associated flooding caused by Hurricane Andrew for scenarios of sea level rise (SLR) from 0.15 m to 1.05 m with an interval of 0.15 m. The interaction between storm surge and SLR is almost linear at the open Atlantic Ocean outside Biscayne Bay, with slight reduction in peak storm surge heights as sea level rises. The nonlinear interaction between storm surges and SLR is weak in Biscayne Bay, leading to small differences in peak storm surge heights estimated by three methods. Therefore, it is appropriate to estimate elevated storm surges caused by SLR in these areas by adding the SLR magnitude to storm surge heights. However, the magnitude and extent of inundation at the mainland area by Biscayne Bay estimated by numerical simulations are, respectively, 22–24 % and 16–30 % larger on average than those generated by the linear addition by expansion and the simple linear addition methods, indicating a strong nonlinear interaction between storm surge and SLR. The population and property affected by the storm surge inundation estimated by numerical simulations differ up to 50–140 % from that estimated by two linear addition methods. Therefore, it is inappropriate to estimate the exacerbated magnitude and extent of storm surge flooding and affected population and property caused by SLR by using the linear addition methods. The strong nonlinear interaction between surge flooding and SLR at a specific location occurs at the initial stage of SLR when the water depth under an elevated sea level is less than 0.7 m, while the interaction becomes linear as the depth exceeds 0.7 m. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

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  • Keqi Zhang & Yuepeng Li & Huiqing Liu & Hongzhou Xu & Jian Shen, 2013. "Comparison of three methods for estimating the sea level rise effect on storm surge flooding," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(2), pages 487-500, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:118:y:2013:i:2:p:487-500
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-012-0645-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. David Rodziewicz & Christopher J. Amante & Jacob Dice & Eugene Wahl, 2022. "Housing market impairment from future sea-level rise inundation," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 42(4), pages 637-656, December.
    2. Hannah Cooper & Qi Chen, 2013. "Incorporating uncertainty of future sea-level rise estimates into vulnerability assessment: A case study in Kahului, Maui," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 121(4), pages 635-647, December.
    3. David Didier & Pascal Bernatchez & Guillaume Marie & Geneviève Boucher-Brossard, 2016. "Wave runup estimations on platform-beaches for coastal flood hazard assessment," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 83(3), pages 1443-1467, September.
    4. Christopher J. Amante & Jacob Dice & David Rodziewicz & Eugene Wahl, 2020. "Housing Market Value Impairment from Future Sea-level Rise Inundation," Research Working Paper RWP 20-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    5. Javier X Leon & Gerard B M Heuvelink & Stuart R Phinn, 2014. "Incorporating DEM Uncertainty in Coastal Inundation Mapping," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(9), pages 1-12, September.

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