IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v114y2012i3p593-619.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Multiproxy reconstructions of climate for three sites in the Canadian High Arctic using Cassiope tetragona

Author

Listed:
  • Shelly Rayback
  • Gregory Henry
  • Andrea Lini

Abstract

We developed calibration models and reconstructed climate for sites in the central and eastern Canadian High Arctic using dendroclimatological and stable isotope analysis techniques on the dwarf-shrub, Cassiope tetragona. Our results may suggest complex temporal and spatial patterns of climate change in the region over the past century. For sites on Bathurst and Devon Islands, we reconstructed fall mean and June–July mean temperature using multiple linear regression analysis that explained 54 % and 40 % of the variance, respectively. The predictor variables included annual growth, annual production of leaves, flower buds and annual δ¹³C values for the Bathurst Island model, and annual growth and δ¹³C values for the Devon Island model. Both models revealed warmer than average temperatures throughout the mid-20th century, followed by a cooling trend from the early 1960s and mid-1970s at the Devon and Bathurst Island sites, respectively. Temperatures remained cool until the early 1980s and then increased until 1998/1999 at both sites. Our models are supported by other paleoclimate proxies and the instrumental record from the Canadian Arctic. For sites on Axel Heiberg and Bathurst Islands, we developed models using multivariate regresssion for February and March total precipitation that explained 44 % and 42 % of the variance, respectively. The Axel Heiberg Island model included annual production of flowers and flower buds, as well as annual δ¹³C values as predictor variables, while the Bathurst Island model only included the annual production of flower buds as a predictor. Both models showed lower than average precipitation from the early to mid-1900s, followed by increasing precipitation from the late 1980s to 1998/1999. Our precipitation models, supported by instrumental and proxy data, suggest a trend of increasing late-winter/early spring precipitation in the late 20th century. The lack of a single detectable climate signal across the study sites suggests local climate, topography, genetic variation and/or ecological conditions may dictate, in part, site responses and result in a heterogeneous climatescape over space and time. Yet, like other arctic paleoclimate proxies, chronology error and temporal discrepancies may complicate our interpretations. However, comparisons with other arctic proxies and the meteorological record suggest our models have also registered a regional climate signal. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012

Suggested Citation

  • Shelly Rayback & Gregory Henry & Andrea Lini, 2012. "Multiproxy reconstructions of climate for three sites in the Canadian High Arctic using Cassiope tetragona," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 114(3), pages 593-619, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:114:y:2012:i:3:p:593-619
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-012-0431-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10584-012-0431-7
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-012-0431-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rune G. Graversen & Thorsten Mauritsen & Michael Tjernström & Erland Källén & Gunilla Svensson, 2008. "Vertical structure of recent Arctic warming," Nature, Nature, vol. 451(7174), pages 53-56, January.
    2. James A. Screen & Ian Simmonds, 2010. "The central role of diminishing sea ice in recent Arctic temperature amplification," Nature, Nature, vol. 464(7293), pages 1334-1337, April.
    3. Michelle C. Mack & Edward A. G. Schuur & M. Syndonia Bret-Harte & Gaius R. Shaver & F. Stuart Chapin, 2004. "Ecosystem carbon storage in arctic tundra reduced by long-term nutrient fertilization," Nature, Nature, vol. 431(7007), pages 440-443, September.
    4. Julienne Stroeve & Walter Meier, 2012. "Arctic Sea Ice Decline," Chapters, in: Guoxiang Liu (ed.), Greenhouse Gases - Emission, Measurement and Management, IntechOpen.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Julienne Stroeve & Mark Serreze & Marika Holland & Jennifer Kay & James Malanik & Andrew Barrett, 2012. "The Arctic’s rapidly shrinking sea ice cover: a research synthesis," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 110(3), pages 1005-1027, February.
    2. Zhibiao Wang & Qinghua Ding & Renguang Wu & Thomas J. Ballinger & Bin Guan & Deniz Bozkurt & Deanna Nash & Ian Baxter & Dániel Topál & Zhe Li & Gang Huang & Wen Chen & Shangfeng Chen & Xi Cao & Zhang , 2024. "Role of atmospheric rivers in shaping long term Arctic moisture variability," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.
    3. Andrew C. W. Leung & William A. Gough & Tanzina Mohsin, 2022. "Analysing Historical and Modelling Future Soil Temperature at Kuujjuaq, Quebec (Canada): Implications on Aviation Infrastructure," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-31, January.
    4. Bindu Panikkar & Benjamin Lemmond, 2020. "Being on Land and Sea in Troubled Times: Climate Change and Food Sovereignty in Nunavut," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-18, December.
    5. Marc Audi & Amjad Ali & Mohamad Kassem, 2020. "Greenhouse Gases: A Review of Losses and Benefits," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(1), pages 403-418.
    6. Elizabeth Kopits & Alex L. Marten & Ann Wolverton, 2013. "Moving Forward with Incorporating "Catastrophic" Climate Change into Policy Analysis," NCEE Working Paper Series 201301, National Center for Environmental Economics, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, revised Jan 2013.
    7. Hoover, Carie & Pitcher, Tony & Christensen, Villy, 2013. "Effects of hunting, fishing and climate change on the Hudson Bay marine ecosystem: II. Ecosystem model future projections," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 264(C), pages 143-156.
    8. Pereira, Tony, 2009. "Sustainability: An integral engineering design approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 1133-1137, June.
    9. Chuya Wang & Minghu Ding & Yuande Yang & Ting Wei & Tingfeng Dou, 2022. "Risk Assessment of Ship Navigation in the Northwest Passage: Historical and Projection," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-20, May.
    10. Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2022. "Probability assessments of an ice-free Arctic: Comparing statistical and climate model projections," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 520-534.
    11. Jennifer A. Francis & Stephen J. Vavrus & Judah Cohen, 2017. "Amplified Arctic warming and mid‐latitude weather: new perspectives on emerging connections," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 8(5), September.
    12. Hui-Zhen Fu & Yuh-Shan Ho, 2016. "Highly cited Antarctic articles using Science Citation Index Expanded: a bibliometric analysis," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 109(1), pages 337-357, October.
    13. Flavio Lehner & Clara Deser & Benjamin M. Sanderson, 2018. "Future risk of record-breaking summer temperatures and its mitigation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 146(3), pages 363-375, February.
    14. Brock, W. & Xepapadeas, A., 2017. "Climate change policy under polar amplification," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 93-112.
    15. Clifford Chuwah & Twan Noije & Detlef P. Vuuren & Philippe Sager & Wilco Hazeleger, 2016. "Global and regional climate impacts of future aerosol mitigation in an RCP6.0-like scenario in EC-Earth," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(1), pages 1-14, January.
    16. S. Outten & I. Esau, 2012. "A link between Arctic sea ice and recent cooling trends over Eurasia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 110(3), pages 1069-1075, February.
    17. Matto Mildenberger & Peter Howe & Erick Lachapelle & Leah Stokes & Jennifer Marlon & Timothy Gravelle, 2016. "The Distribution of Climate Change Public Opinion in Canada," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(8), pages 1-14, August.
    18. Jens Strauss & Christina Biasi & Tina Sanders & Benjamin W. Abbott & Thomas Schneider Deimling & Carolina Voigt & Matthias Winkel & Maija E. Marushchak & Dan Kou & Matthias Fuchs & Marcus A. Horn & Lo, 2022. "A globally relevant stock of soil nitrogen in the Yedoma permafrost domain," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    19. Binhe Luo & Dehai Luo & Yao Ge & Aiguo Dai & Lin Wang & Ian Simmonds & Cunde Xiao & Lixin Wu & Yao Yao, 2023. "Origins of Barents-Kara sea-ice interannual variability modulated by the Atlantic pathway of El Niño–Southern Oscillation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
    20. Reeves, Randall R. & Ewins, Peter J. & Agbayani, Selina & Heide-Jørgensen, Mads Peter & Kovacs, Kit M. & Lydersen, Christian & Suydam, Robert & Elliott, Wendy & Polet, Gert & van Dijk, Yvette & Blijle, 2014. "Distribution of endemic cetaceans in relation to hydrocarbon development and commercial shipping in a warming Arctic," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 375-389.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:114:y:2012:i:3:p:593-619. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.