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Analysing Historical and Modelling Future Soil Temperature at Kuujjuaq, Quebec (Canada): Implications on Aviation Infrastructure

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  • Andrew C. W. Leung

    (Department of Physical & Environmental Sciences, University of Toronto Scarborough, Toronto, ON M1C 1A4, Canada
    Data & Services Section, Atmospheric Monitoring and Data Services, Meteorological Services of Canada, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Toronto, ON M3H 5T4, Canada)

  • William A. Gough

    (Department of Physical & Environmental Sciences, University of Toronto Scarborough, Toronto, ON M1C 1A4, Canada)

  • Tanzina Mohsin

    (Department of Physical & Environmental Sciences, University of Toronto Scarborough, Toronto, ON M1C 1A4, Canada)

Abstract

The impact of climate change on soil temperatures at Kuujjuaq, Quebec in northern Canada is assessed. First, long-term historical soil temperature records (1967–1995) are statistically analyzed to provide a climatological baseline for soils at 5 to 150 cm depths. Next, the nature of the relationship between atmospheric variables and soil temperature are determined using a statistical downscaling model (SDSM) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), a climatological data set. SDSM was found to replicate historic soil temperatures well and used to project soil temperatures for the remainder of the century using climate model output Canadian Second Generation Earth System Model (CanESM2). Three Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) were used from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). This study found that the soil temperature at this location may warm at 0.9 to 1.2 °C per decade at various depths. Annual soil temperatures at all depths are projected to rise to above 0 °C for the 1997–2026 period for all climate scenarios. The melting soil poses a hazard to the airport infrastructure and will require adaptation measures.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew C. W. Leung & William A. Gough & Tanzina Mohsin, 2022. "Analysing Historical and Modelling Future Soil Temperature at Kuujjuaq, Quebec (Canada): Implications on Aviation Infrastructure," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-31, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jforec:v:4:y:2022:i:1:p:6-125:d:724300
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rune G. Graversen & Thorsten Mauritsen & Michael Tjernström & Erland Källén & Gunilla Svensson, 2008. "Vertical structure of recent Arctic warming," Nature, Nature, vol. 451(7174), pages 53-56, January.
    2. Christoph Oelke & Tingjun Zhang, 2004. "A model study of circum‐Arctic soil temperatures," Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 15(2), pages 103-121, April.
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