IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jrpoli/v43y2015icp50-60.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A dynamic model of the global uranium market and the nuclear fuel cycle

Author

Listed:
  • Rooney, Matthew
  • Nuttall, William J.
  • Kazantzis, Nikolaos

Abstract

In order to study the global uranium market, a dynamic model for the period 1990–2050 has been developed. It incorporates globally aggregated stocks and flows of uranium moving through the nuclear fuel cycle, as well as a price formation mechanism. Analysis illustrates some of the key features of the market for this commodity, including the role that time lags play in the formation of price volatility. Specific demand reduction and substitution strategies and technologies are explored, and potential external shocks are simulated to investigate the effect on price and how the uranium mining industry responds. Sensitivity analysis of key model parameters indicates that the time constant related to the formation of traders׳ expectations of future market prices embedded in the proposed price discovery mechanism has a strong influence on both the amplitude and frequency of price peaks. Finally, our analysis leads us to believe that the existing uranium resource base will be sufficient to satisfy demand well into the second half of the 21st century.

Suggested Citation

  • Rooney, Matthew & Nuttall, William J. & Kazantzis, Nikolaos, 2015. "A dynamic model of the global uranium market and the nuclear fuel cycle," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 50-60.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:43:y:2015:i:c:p:50-60
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2014.11.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301420714000828
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.resourpol.2014.11.003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paul Cashin & C. John McCDermott, 2002. "The Long-Run Behavior of Commodity Prices: Small Trends and Big Variability," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(2), pages 1-2.
    2. Chi, K.C. & Reiner, D.M. & Nuttall, W.J., 2009. "Dynamics of the UK Natural Gas Industry: System Dynamics Modelling and Long-Term Energy Policy Analysis," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0922, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    3. Kahouli, Sondès, 2011. "Effects of technological learning and uranium price on nuclear cost: Preliminary insights from a multiple factors learning curve and uranium market modeling," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 840-852, September.
    4. Cai, Zhiming & Clarke, Richard H. & Glowacki, Bartek A. & Nuttall, William J. & Ward, Nick, 2010. "Ongoing ascent to the helium production plateau--Insights from system dynamics," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 77-89, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zirui Wang & Wanli Xing, 2022. "Study on the Characteristics and Evolution Trends of Global Uranium Resource Trade from the Perspective of a Complex Network," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-23, November.
    2. Kong, Rui & Xue, Fangfang & Wang, Jing & Zhai, Haiyan & Zhao, Lina, 2017. "Research on Mineral Resources and Environment of Salt Lakes in Qinghai Province based on System Dynamics Theory," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 19-28.
    3. Arnaut, Javier L., 2022. "The importance of uranium prices and structural shocks: Some implications for Greenland," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Becerra-Fernandez, Mauricio & Cosenz, Federico & Dyner, Isaac, 2020. "Modeling the natural gas supply chain for sustainable growth policy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    2. Gao, Jiayang & Zhang, Tao, 2022. "Effects of public funding on the commercial diffusion of on-site hydrogen production technology: A system dynamics perspective," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    3. Obsatar Sinaga & Mohd Haizam Mohd Saudi & Djoko Roespinoedji & Mohd Shahril Ahmad Razimi, 2019. "The Dynamic Relationship between Natural Gas and Economic Growth: Evidence from Indonesia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(3), pages 388-394.
    4. Shernaz Bodhanwala & Harsh Purohit & Nidhi Choudhary, 2020. "The Causal Dynamics in Indian Agriculture Commodity Prices and Macro-Economic Variables in the Presence of a Structural Break," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 21(1), pages 241-261, February.
    5. Gabriel Srour, 2004. "Economic Integration, Sectoral Diversification, and Exchange Rate Policy in a Developing Economy," IMF Working Papers 2004/060, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Olivier Gervais & Ilan Kolet & René Lalonde, 2010. "A Larger Slice of a Growing Pie: the Role of Emerging Asia in Forecasting Commodity Prices," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 75-95, January-J.
    7. Krätschell, Karoline & Schmidt, Torsten, 2013. "Long-run trends or short-run fluctuations What establishes the correlation between oil and food prices?," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79798, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    8. Rabah Arezki & Daniel Lederman & Hongyan Zhao, 2014. "The Relative Volatility of Commodity Prices: A Reappraisal," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 96(3), pages 939-951.
    9. Lovering, Jessica R. & Yip, Arthur & Nordhaus, Ted, 2016. "Historical construction costs of global nuclear power reactors," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 371-382.
    10. Yamada, Hiroshi & Yoon, Gawon, 2014. "When Grilli and Yang meet Prebisch and Singer: Piecewise linear trends in primary commodity prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 193-207.
    11. Tuinstra, Jan & Wegener, Michael & Westerhoff, Frank, 2014. "Positive welfare effects of trade barriers in a dynamic partial equilibrium model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 246-264.
    12. Arezki, Rabah & Hadri, Kaddour & Loungani, Prakash & Rao, Yao, 2014. "Testing the Prebisch–Singer hypothesis since 1650: Evidence from panel techniques that allow for multiple breaks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 208-223.
    13. Rossen, Anja, 2015. "What are metal prices like? Co-movement, price cycles and long-run trends," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 255-276.
    14. Hendalianpour, Ayad & Liu, Peide & Amirghodsi, Sirous & Hamzehlou, Mohammad, 2022. "Designing a System Dynamics model to simulate criteria affecting oil and gas development contracts," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    15. Christophe Gouel & Nicolas Legrand, 2017. "Estimating the Competitive Storage Model with Trending Commodity Prices," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(4), pages 744-763, June.
    16. René Lalonde & Zhenhua Zhu & Frédérick Demers, 2003. "Forecasting and Analyzing World Commodity Prices," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 1-30, January-J.
    17. Chen, Mei-Hsiu, 2010. "Understanding world metals prices--Returns, volatility and diversification," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 127-140, September.
    18. Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin & Gokmenoglu, Korhan & Ekinci, Cagdas, 2013. "Persistence in crude oil spot and futures prices," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 29-37.
    19. Baffes, John & Kabundi, Alain, 2023. "Commodity price shocks: Order within chaos?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    20. Luis Eduardo Arango & Fernando Arias & Luz Adriana Flórez, 2008. "Trends, Fluctuations, and Determinants of Commodity Prices," Borradores de Economia 521, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:43:y:2015:i:c:p:50-60. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30467 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.