Declining Country-Level Food Self-Sufficiency Suggests Future Food Insecurities

Global food security for a population of 9 billion by 2050 depends on a complex socioeconomic and biophysical system. Current strategies involve decreasing food losses, increasing yields, and improving distribution efficiencies. Herein, we use a systems-based approach to show that contrary to a historically rising global dietary energy production (DEP: per capita calories grown or captured), food self-sufficiency at the country-level has been in a four-decade decline as the number of countries generating insufficient DEP for their populations continue to increase at a steadfast rate. Global trade and food imports for the most part have kept up and compensated for these growing declines. However, the necessary expansion in food exports and distribution is fueled by ever-increasing growth in non-renewable fossil fuel use resulting in increasing instability in present society.