IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/annopr/v299y2021i1d10.1007_s10479-019-03442-5.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Rainfall option impact on profits of the hospitality industry through scenario correlation and copulas

Author

Listed:
  • Simona Franzoni

    (University of Brescia)

  • Cristian Pelizzari

    (University of Brescia)

Abstract

This work introduces and empirically tests an option contract designed to manage rainfall risk of hospitality firms. It contributes to the literature on weather derivatives in tourism. We deal with a rainfall option designed to compensate for the lack of revenues caused by too much rain, which could have a negative impact on the hospitality industry business performances in the medium/long run. We concentrate on the typical question of pricing a rainfall option. We introduce a new model with the aim of improving the formulation of the price by considering the highly non-linear relationships between rain and business performances in a multidimensional framework. Such a model results from the integration of three essential elements: scenario correlation, copulas, and Monte Carlo techniques. The model is complemented by an experiment that focuses on Lake Garda, Italy, one of the most important tourist destinations in the summer period for international and Italian visitors. We consider the quantities of rainfall of Lake Garda in the years 2005–2014 and the business performances of 18 hotels operating there during the same period. Based on these data, we obtain multidimensional data. Then, the price of an option contract designed to hedge the decrease in revenues due to rainfall is assessed based on the refined and linked multidimensional data. Finally, an optimal number of contracts to be bought is suggested based on the minimization of the Earnings Before Interests and Taxes variability.

Suggested Citation

  • Simona Franzoni & Cristian Pelizzari, 2021. "Rainfall option impact on profits of the hospitality industry through scenario correlation and copulas," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 299(1), pages 939-962, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:299:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s10479-019-03442-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s10479-019-03442-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10479-019-03442-5
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10479-019-03442-5?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bertrand, Jean-Louis & Brusset, Xavier & Fortin, Maxime, 2015. "Assessing and hedging the cost of unseasonal weather: Case of the apparel sector," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 244(1), pages 261-276.
    2. Peter Alaton & Boualem Djehiche & David Stillberger, 2002. "On modelling and pricing weather derivatives," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 1-20.
    3. Fred Espen Benth & Jūratė Šaltytė Benth, 2012. "Modeling and Pricing in Financial Markets for Weather Derivatives," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 8457, August.
    4. Haruyoshi Ito & Jing Ai & Akihiko Ozawa, 2016. "Managing Weather Risks: The Case of J. League Soccer Teams in Japan," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 83(4), pages 877-912, December.
    5. López Cabrera, Brenda & Odening, Martin & Ritter, Matthias, 2013. "Pricing rainfall futures at the CME," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4286-4298.
    6. Bank, Matthias & Wiesner, Robert, 2011. "Determinants of weather derivatives usage in the Austrian winter tourism industry," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 62-68.
    7. Patrick L. Brockett & Mulong Wang & Chuanhou Yang, 2005. "Weather Derivatives and Weather Risk Management," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 8(1), pages 127-140, March.
    8. Martin Odening & Oliver Musshoff & Wei Xu, 2007. "Analysis of rainfall derivatives using daily precipitation models: opportunities and pitfalls," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 67(1), pages 135-156, May.
    9. George Assaf, A. & Josiassen, Alexander & Woo, Linda & Agbola, Frank W. & Tsionas, Mike, 2017. "Destination characteristics that drive hotel performance: A state-of-the-art global analysis," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 270-279.
    10. Markus Hess, 2018. "Pricing Temperature Derivatives Under Weather Forecasts," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 21(05), pages 1-34, August.
    11. Sainaghi, Ruggero & Phillips, Paul & Zavarrone, Emma, 2017. "Performance measurement in tourism firms: A content analytical meta-approach," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 36-56.
    12. Elberg, Christina & Hagspiel, Simeon, 2015. "Spatial dependencies of wind power and interrelations with spot price dynamics," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 241(1), pages 260-272.
    13. Christian Genest & Michel Gendron & Michaël Bourdeau-Brien, 2009. "The Advent of Copulas in Finance," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(7-8), pages 609-618.
    14. Fred Espen Benth & Jūratė Šaltytė Benth, 2012. "Financial markets for weather," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Modeling and Pricing in Financial Markets for Weather Derivatives, chapter 1, pages 1-13, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    15. Jr‐Wei Huang & Sharon S. Yang & Chuang‐Chang Chang, 2018. "Modeling temperature behaviors: Application to weather derivative valuation," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(9), pages 1152-1175, September.
    16. Marcello M. Mariani & Dimitrios Buhalis & Christian Longhi & Ourania Vitouladiti, 2014. "Managing change in tourism destinations : key issues and current trends," Post-Print halshs-00924447, HAL.
    17. Cyr, Don & Kwong, Lester & Sun, Ling, 2017. "An Examination of Tail Dependence in Bordeaux Futures Prices and Parker Ratings," Journal of Wine Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(3), pages 252-266, August.
    18. A. Alexandridis & A. Zapranis, 2013. "Wind Derivatives: Modeling and Pricing," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 41(3), pages 299-326, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wolfgang Karl Härdle & Brenda López Cabrera & Awdesch Melzer, 2021. "Pricing wind power futures," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 70(4), pages 1083-1102, August.
    2. Gülpınar, Nalân & Çanakoḡlu, Ethem, 2017. "Robust portfolio selection problem under temperature uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 256(2), pages 500-523.
    3. Andrea Martínez Salgueiro & Maria-Antonia Tarrazon-Rodon, 2021. "Weather derivatives to mitigate meteorological risks in tourism management: An empirical application to celebrations of Comunidad Valenciana (Spain)," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(4), pages 591-613, June.
    4. Groll, Andreas & López-Cabrera, Brenda & Meyer-Brandis, Thilo, 2016. "A consistent two-factor model for pricing temperature derivatives," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 112-126.
    5. Boyle, Colin F.H. & Haas, Jannik & Kern, Jordan D., 2021. "Development of an irradiance-based weather derivative to hedge cloud risk for solar energy systems," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 1230-1243.
    6. Johannes Kaufmann & Philipp Artur Kienscherf & Wolfgang Ketter, 2020. "Modeling and Managing Joint Price and Volumetric Risk for Volatile Electricity Portfolios," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-19, July.
    7. Yeny E. Rodríguez & Miguel A. Pérez-Uribe & Javier Contreras, 2021. "Wind Put Barrier Options Pricing Based on the Nordix Index," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-14, February.
    8. Aur'elien Alfonsi & Nerea Vadillo, 2023. "Risk valuation of quanto derivatives on temperature and electricity," Papers 2310.07692, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2024.
    9. Andrea Martínez Salgueiro & Maria-Antonia Tarrazon-Rodon, 2020. "Approaching rainfall-based weather derivatives pricing and operational challenges," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 163-190, July.
    10. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2014-006 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Markus Hess, 2021. "A new approach to wind power futures pricing," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 44(2), pages 1235-1252, December.
    12. Ivana Štulec, 2017. "Effectiveness of Weather Derivatives as a Risk Management Tool in Food Retail: The Case of Croatia," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-15, January.
    13. Linnenluecke, Martina K. & Smith, Tom & McKnight, Brent, 2016. "Environmental finance: A research agenda for interdisciplinary finance research," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 124-130.
    14. Markus Stowasser, 2011. "Modelling rain risk: a multi-order Markov chain model approach," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 13(1), pages 45-60, December.
    15. Fred Espen Benth & Sara Ana Solanilla Blanco, 2015. "Forward Prices As Functionals Of The Spot Path In Commodity Markets Modeled By Levy Semistationary Processes," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 18(02), pages 1-35.
    16. Wolfgang Karl Härdle & Brenda López Cabrera, 2012. "The Implied Market Price of Weather Risk," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 59-95, February.
    17. Július Bemš & Caner Aydin, 2022. "Introduction to weather derivatives," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(3), May.
    18. Kononovicius, Aleksejus & Kazakevičius, Rytis & Kaulakys, Bronislovas, 2022. "Resemblance of the power-law scaling behavior of a non-Markovian and nonlinear point processes," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    19. Peng Li, 2021. "The Valuation of Weather Derivatives Using One Sided Crank–Nicolson Schemes," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 58(3), pages 825-847, October.
    20. Fred Espen Benth & Marco Piccirilli & Tiziano Vargiolu, 2017. "Additive energy forward curves in a Heath-Jarrow-Morton framework," Papers 1709.03310, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2018.
    21. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2017-005 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Kwangil Bae, 2019. "Valuation and applications of compound basket options," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(6), pages 704-720, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Risk management; Weather-sensitive hospitality firms; Rainfall risk; Rainfall options; Monte Carlo techniques;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
    • Z32 - Other Special Topics - - Tourism Economics - - - Tourism and Development
    • Z33 - Other Special Topics - - Tourism Economics - - - Marketing and Finance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:299:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s10479-019-03442-5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.