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Assessing and hedging the cost of unseasonal weather: Case of the apparel sector

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  • Bertrand, Jean-Louis
  • Brusset, Xavier
  • Fortin, Maxime

Abstract

Retail activities are increasingly exposed to unseasonal weather causing lost sales and profits, as climate change is aggravating climate variability. Although research has provided insights into the role of weather on consumption, little is known about the precise relationship between weather and sales for strategic and financial decision-making. Using apparel as an illustration, for all seasons, we estimate the impact on sales caused by unexpected deviations of daily temperature from seasonal patterns. We apply Seasonal Trend decomposition using Loess to isolate changes in sales volumes. We use a linear regression to find the relationship between temperature and sales anomalies and construct the historical distribution to determine sales-at-risk due to unseasonal weather. We show how to use weather derivatives to offset the potential loss. Our contribution is twofold. We provide a new general method for managers to understand how their performance is weather-related. We lay out a blueprint for tailor-made weather derivatives to mitigate this risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Bertrand, Jean-Louis & Brusset, Xavier & Fortin, Maxime, 2015. "Assessing and hedging the cost of unseasonal weather: Case of the apparel sector," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 244(1), pages 261-276.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:244:y:2015:i:1:p:261-276
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2015.01.012
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    14. Brigitte Roth Tran, 2019. "Sellin’ in the Rain: Adaptation to Weather and Climate in the Retail Sector," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-067, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    16. Tian, Xin & Cao, Shasha & Song, Yan, 2021. "The impact of weather on consumer behavior and retail performance: Evidence from a convenience store chain in China," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
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