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Technical trading and cryptocurrencies

Author

Listed:
  • Robert Hudson

    (University of Hull)

  • Andrew Urquhart

    (University of Reading)

Abstract

This paper carries out a comprehensive examination of technical trading rules in cryptocurrency markets, using data from two Bitcoin markets and three other popular cryptocurrencies. We employ almost 15,000 technical trading rules from the main five classes of technical trading rules and find significant predictability and profitability for each class of technical trading rule in each cryptocurrency. We find that the breakeven transaction costs are substantially higher than those typically found in cryptocurrency markets. To safeguard against data-snooping, we implement a number of multiple hypothesis procedures which confirms our findings that technical trading rules do offer significant predictive power and profitability to investors. We also show that the technical trading rules offer substantially higher risk-adjusted returns than the simple buy-and-hold strategy, showing protection against lengthy and severe drawdowns associated with cryptocurrency markets. However there is no predictability for Bitcoin in the out-of-sample period, although predictability remains in other cryptocurrency markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Hudson & Andrew Urquhart, 2021. "Technical trading and cryptocurrencies," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 297(1), pages 191-220, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:297:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s10479-019-03357-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s10479-019-03357-1
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    Cited by:

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    3. Julien Chevallier & Dominique Guégan & Stéphane Goutte, 2021. "Is It Possible to Forecast the Price of Bitcoin?," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(2), pages 1-44, May.
    4. Christian Fieberg & Gerrit Liedtke & Daniel Metko & Adam Zaremba, 2023. "Cryptocurrency factor momentum," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(12), pages 1853-1869, November.
    5. Day, Min-Yuh & Ni, Yensen, 2023. "Do clean energy indices outperform using contrarian strategies based on contrarian trading rules?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 272(C).
    6. Kevin Rink, 2023. "The predictive ability of technical trading rules: an empirical analysis of developed and emerging equity markets," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 37(4), pages 403-456, December.
    7. Erdinc Akyildirim & Aurelio F. Bariviera & Duc Khuong Nguyen & Ahmet Sensoy, 2022. "Forecasting high-frequency stock returns: a comparison of alternative methods," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(2), pages 639-690, June.
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    9. Gong, Xue & Ye, Xin & Zhang, Weiguo & Zhang, Yue, 2023. "Predicting energy futures high-frequency volatility using technical indicators: The role of interaction," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    10. Łęt Blanka & Sobański Konrad & Świder Wojciech & Włosik Katarzyna, 2022. "Is the cryptocurrency market efficient? Evidence from an analysis of fundamental factors for Bitcoin and Ethereum," International Journal of Management and Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of World Economy, vol. 58(4), pages 351-370, December.
    11. Deprez, Niek & Frömmel, Michael, 2024. "Are simple technical trading rules profitable in bitcoin markets?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PB), pages 858-874.
    12. Li, Yi & Urquhart, Andrew & Wang, Pengfei & Zhang, Wei, 2021. "MAX momentum in cryptocurrency markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    13. Nuray Tosunoğlu & Hilal Abacı & Gizem Ateş & Neslihan Saygılı Akkaya, 2023. "Artificial neural network analysis of the day of the week anomaly in cryptocurrencies," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-24, December.
    14. Jiqian Wang & Feng Ma & Elie Bouri & Yangli Guo, 2023. "Which factors drive Bitcoin volatility: Macroeconomic, technical, or both?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(4), pages 970-988, July.
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