IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finana/v77y2021ics1057521921001630.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

MAX momentum in cryptocurrency markets

Author

Listed:
  • Li, Yi
  • Urquhart, Andrew
  • Wang, Pengfei
  • Zhang, Wei

Abstract

This paper studies the MAX effect, the relationship between maximum daily returns and future returns in the cryptocurrency market. The cryptocurrency market is an ideal setting for the MAX effect due to its lottery-like features (i.e., large positive skewness). Contrary to findings in other markets, we demonstrate that cryptocurrencies with higher maximum daily returns tend to achieve higher returns in the future and call this the “MAX momentum” effect. We also find that the magnitude of the MAX momentum effect varies with market conditions, investor sentiment and the underpricing of cryptocurrencies. Additionally, this effect is robust to longer holding periods, different MAX measures and alternative sample selection criteria.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Yi & Urquhart, Andrew & Wang, Pengfei & Zhang, Wei, 2021. "MAX momentum in cryptocurrency markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:77:y:2021:i:c:s1057521921001630
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2021.101829
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1057521921001630
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.irfa.2021.101829?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Atilgan, Yigit & Bali, Turan G. & Demirtas, K. Ozgur & Gunaydin, A. Doruk, 2020. "Left-tail momentum: Underreaction to bad news, costly arbitrage and equity returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(3), pages 725-753.
    2. Hung, Weifeng & Yang, J. Jimmy, 2018. "The MAX effect: Lottery stocks with price limits and limits to arbitrage," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 77-91.
    3. Walther, Thomas & Klein, Tony & Bouri, Elie, 2019. "Exogenous drivers of Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency volatility – A mixed data sampling approach to forecasting," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    4. Nartea, Gilbert V. & Kong, Dongmin & Wu, Ji, 2017. "Do extreme returns matter in emerging markets? Evidence from the Chinese stock market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 189-197.
    5. Makarov, Igor & Schoar, Antoinette, 2020. "Trading and arbitrage in cryptocurrency markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(2), pages 293-319.
    6. Bali, Turan G. & Cakici, Nusret & Whitelaw, Robert F., 2011. "Maxing out: Stocks as lotteries and the cross-section of expected returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 427-446, February.
    7. Zhi Da & Joseph Engelberg & Pengjie Gao, 2015. "Editor's Choice The Sum of All FEARS Investor Sentiment and Asset Prices," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(1), pages 1-32.
    8. Zhang, Wei & Li, Yi & Xiong, Xiong & Wang, Pengfei, 2021. "Downside risk and the cross-section of cryptocurrency returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    9. Corbet, Shaen & Lucey, Brian & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2018. "Datestamping the Bitcoin and Ethereum bubbles," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 81-88.
    10. Duan, Kun & Li, Zeming & Urquhart, Andrew & Ye, Jinqiang, 2021. "Dynamic efficiency and arbitrage potential in Bitcoin: A long-memory approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    11. Grobys, Klaus & Sapkota, Niranjan, 2019. "Cryptocurrencies and momentum," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 6-10.
    12. Urquhart, Andrew, 2018. "What causes the attention of Bitcoin?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 40-44.
    13. Klein, Tony & Pham Thu, Hien & Walther, Thomas, 2018. "Bitcoin is not the New Gold – A comparison of volatility, correlation, and portfolio performance," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 105-116.
    14. Zhong, Angel & Gray, Philip, 2016. "The MAX effect: An exploration of risk and mispricing explanations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 76-90.
    15. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Gabauer, David, 2019. "Cryptocurrency market contagion: Market uncertainty, market complexity, and dynamic portfolios," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 37-51.
    16. Robert Hudson & Andrew Urquhart, 2021. "Technical trading and cryptocurrencies," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 297(1), pages 191-220, February.
    17. Gandal, Neil & Hamrick, JT & Moore, Tyler & Oberman, Tali, 2018. "Price manipulation in the Bitcoin ecosystem," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 86-96.
    18. Matthias Pelster & Bastian Breitmayer & Tim Hasso, 2019. "Are cryptocurrency traders pioneers or just risk-seekers? Evidence from brokerage accounts," Papers 1906.11968, arXiv.org.
    19. Albert S. Hu & Christine A. Parlour & Uday Rajan, 2019. "Cryptocurrencies: Stylized facts on a new investible instrument," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 48(4), pages 1049-1068, December.
    20. Andrew Detzel & Hong Liu & Jack Strauss & Guofu Zhou & Yingzi Zhu, 2021. "Learning and predictability via technical analysis: Evidence from bitcoin and stocks with hard‐to‐value fundamentals," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 50(1), pages 107-137, March.
    21. Chan, Yue-Cheong & Chui, Andy C.W., 2016. "Gambling in the Hong Kong stock market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 204-218.
    22. Dehua Shen & Andrew Urquhart & Pengfei Wang, 2020. "Forecasting the volatility of Bitcoin: The importance of jumps and structural breaks," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 26(5), pages 1294-1323, November.
    23. Conlon, Thomas & McGee, Richard J., 2020. "Betting on Bitcoin: Does gambling volume on the blockchain explain Bitcoin price changes?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    24. Cheah, Eng-Tuck & Fry, John, 2015. "Speculative bubbles in Bitcoin markets? An empirical investigation into the fundamental value of Bitcoin," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 32-36.
    25. Fong, Wai Mun & Toh, Benjamin, 2014. "Investor sentiment and the MAX effect," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 190-201.
    26. Kajtazi, Anton & Moro, Andrea, 2019. "The role of bitcoin in well diversified portfolios: A comparative global study," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 143-157.
    27. Pelster, Matthias & Breitmayer, Bastian & Hasso, Tim, 2019. "Are cryptocurrency traders pioneers or just risk-seekers? Evidence from brokerage accounts," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 98-100.
    28. Akanksha Jalan & Roman Matkovskyy & Andrew Urquhart, 2021. "What effect did the introduction of Bitcoin futures have on the Bitcoin spot market?," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(13), pages 1251-1281, September.
    29. Corbet, Shaen & Lucey, Brian & Urquhart, Andrew & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2019. "Cryptocurrencies as a financial asset: A systematic analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 182-199.
    30. Corbet, Shaen & Meegan, Andrew & Larkin, Charles & Lucey, Brian & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2018. "Exploring the dynamic relationships between cryptocurrencies and other financial assets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 28-34.
    31. Pankaj K. Jain & Thomas H. McInish & Jonathan L. Miller, 2019. "Insights from bitcoin trading," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 48(4), pages 1031-1048, December.
    32. Muhammad Ali Nasir & Toan Luu Duc Huynh & Sang Phu Nguyen & Duy Duong, 2019. "Forecasting cryptocurrency returns and volume using search engines," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 5(1), pages 1-13, December.
    33. Urquhart, Andrew, 2016. "The inefficiency of Bitcoin," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 80-82.
    34. Platanakis, Emmanouil & Urquhart, Andrew, 2019. "Portfolio management with cryptocurrencies: The role of estimation risk," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 76-80.
    35. Amihud, Yakov, 2002. "Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 31-56, January.
    36. Makarov, Igor & Schoar, Antoinette, 2020. "Trading and arbitrage in cryptocurrency markets," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 100409, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    37. Dwyer, Gerald P., 2015. "The economics of Bitcoin and similar private digital currencies," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 81-91.
    38. Robert F. Stambaugh & Jianfeng Yu & Yu Yuan, 2015. "Arbitrage Asymmetry and the Idiosyncratic Volatility Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(5), pages 1903-1948, October.
    39. Cao, Jie & Han, Bing, 2016. "Idiosyncratic risk, costly arbitrage, and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 1-15.
    40. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    41. Wai Mun Fong, 2014. "The MAX Effect," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: The Lottery Mindset: Investors, Gambling and the Stock Market, chapter 7, pages 138-155, Palgrave Macmillan.
    42. Corbet, Shaen & Larkin, Charles & Lucey, Brian & Meegan, Andrew & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2020. "Cryptocurrency reaction to FOMC Announcements: Evidence of heterogeneity based on blockchain stack position," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    43. Urquhart, Andrew & Zhang, Hanxiong, 2019. "Is Bitcoin a hedge or safe haven for currencies? An intraday analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 49-57.
    44. Gerritsen, Dirk F. & Bouri, Elie & Ramezanifar, Ehsan & Roubaud, David, 2020. "The profitability of technical trading rules in the Bitcoin market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    45. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    46. Annaert, Jan & De Ceuster, Marc & Verstegen, Kurt, 2013. "Are extreme returns priced in the stock market? European evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 3401-3411.
    47. Sean Foley & Jonathan R Karlsen & Tālis J Putniņš, 2019. "Sex, Drugs, and Bitcoin: How Much Illegal Activity Is Financed through Cryptocurrencies?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(5), pages 1798-1853.
    48. Yukun Liu & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2021. "Risks and Returns of Cryptocurrency," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(6), pages 2689-2727.
    49. Li An & Huijun Wang & Jian Wang & Jianfeng Yu, 2020. "Lottery-Related Anomalies: The Role of Reference-Dependent Preferences," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(1), pages 473-501, January.
    50. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. "Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March.
    51. Donglian Ma & Hisashi Tanizaki, 2019. "On the day-of-the-week effects of Bitcoin markets: international evidence," China Finance Review International, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 9(4), pages 455-478, July.
    52. Tzouvanas, Panagiotis & Kizys, Renatas & Tsend-Ayush, Bayasgalan, 2020. "Momentum trading in cryptocurrencies: Short-term returns and diversification benefits," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    53. Borri, Nicola, 2019. "Conditional tail-risk in cryptocurrency markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 1-19.
    54. Corbet, Shaen & Cumming, Douglas J. & Lucey, Brian M. & Peat, Maurice & Vigne, Samuel A., 2020. "The destabilising effects of cryptocurrency cybercriminality," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Christian Fieberg & Gerrit Liedtke & Daniel Metko & Adam Zaremba, 2023. "Cryptocurrency factor momentum," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(12), pages 1853-1869, November.
    2. Zhao, Xiaojuan & Wang, Ye & Liu, Weiyi, 2024. "Someone like you: Lottery-like preference and the cross-section of expected returns in the cryptocurrency market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    3. Dunbar, Kwamie & Owusu-Amoako, Johnson, 2023. "Predictability of crypto returns: The impact of trading behavior," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    4. Milan Fičura, 2023. "Impact of size and volume on cryptocurrency momentum and reversal," FFA Working Papers 5.003, Prague University of Economics and Business, revised 05 Apr 2023.
    5. Liebi, Luca J., 2022. "Is there a value premium in cryptoasset markets?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    6. Cakici, Nusret & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Będowska-Sójka, Barbara & Zaremba, Adam, 2024. "Machine learning and the cross-section of cryptocurrency returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    7. Long, Huaigang & Demir, Ender & Będowska-Sójka, Barbara & Zaremba, Adam & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain, 2022. "Is geopolitical risk priced in the cross-section of cryptocurrency returns?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    8. Leong, Minhao & Kwok, Simon, 2023. "The pricing of jump and diffusive risks in the cross-section of cryptocurrency returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    9. Zhang, Yu & Kappou, Konstantina & Urquhart, Andrew, 2024. "Macroeconomic momentum and cross-sectional equity market indices," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    10. Fieberg, Christian & Liedtke, Gerrit & Zaremba, Adam, 2024. "Cryptocurrency anomalies and economic constraints," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    11. Fieberg, Christian & Günther, Steffen & Poddig, Thorsten & Zaremba, Adam, 2024. "Non-standard errors in the cryptocurrency world," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    12. Bennett, Donyetta & Mekelburg, Erik & Williams, T.H., 2023. "BeFi meets DeFi: A behavioral finance approach to decentralized finance asset pricing," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    13. Chen, Rongxin & Lepori, Gabriele M. & Tai, Chung-Ching & Sung, Ming-Chien, 2022. "Can salience theory explain investor behaviour? Real-world evidence from the cryptocurrency market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    14. Wouassom, Alain & Muradoğlu, Yaz Gülnur & Tsitsianis, Nicholas, 2022. "Global momentum: The optimal trading approach," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).
    15. Almeida, José & Gonçalves, Tiago Cruz, 2023. "A systematic literature review of investor behavior in the cryptocurrency markets," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    16. Zhang, Wei & Li, Yi & Xiong, Xiong & Wang, Pengfei, 2021. "Downside risk and the cross-section of cryptocurrency returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    17. Li, Yi & Zhang, Wei & Urquhart, Andrew & Wang, Pengfei, 2022. "The role of media coverage in the bubble formation: Evidence from the Bitcoin market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Melisa Ozdamar & Levent Akdeniz & Ahmet Sensoy, 2021. "Lottery-like preferences and the MAX effect in the cryptocurrency market," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-27, December.
    2. Cynthia Weiyi Cai & Rui Xue & Bi Zhou, 2023. "Cryptocurrency puzzles: a comprehensive review and re-introduction," Journal of Accounting Literature, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 46(1), pages 26-50, June.
    3. Zhang, Wei & Li, Yi & Xiong, Xiong & Wang, Pengfei, 2021. "Downside risk and the cross-section of cryptocurrency returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    4. Aurelio F. Bariviera & Ignasi Merediz‐Solà, 2021. "Where Do We Stand In Cryptocurrencies Economic Research? A Survey Based On Hybrid Analysis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 377-407, April.
    5. Xinyu Huang & Weihao Han & David Newton & Emmanouil Platanakis & Dimitrios Stafylas & Charles Sutcliffe, 2023. "The diversification benefits of cryptocurrency asset categories and estimation risk: pre and post Covid-19," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(7), pages 800-825, May.
    6. Smales, L.A., 2022. "Investor attention in cryptocurrency markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    7. Almeida, José & Gonçalves, Tiago Cruz, 2023. "A systematic literature review of investor behavior in the cryptocurrency markets," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    8. Liebi, Luca J., 2022. "Is there a value premium in cryptoasset markets?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    9. Chen, Bin-xia & Sun, Yan-lin, 2024. "Risk characteristics and connectedness in cryptocurrency markets: New evidence from a non-linear framework," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(PA).
    10. Helder Miguel Correia Virtuoso Sebastião & Paulo José Osório Rupino Da Cunha & Pedro Manuel Cortesão Godinho, 2021. "Cryptocurrencies and blockchain. Overview and future perspectives," International Journal of Economics and Business Research, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 21(3), pages 305-342.
    11. Wan, Xiaoyuan, 2018. "Is the idiosyncratic volatility anomaly driven by the MAX or MIN effect? Evidence from the Chinese stock market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 1-15.
    12. Hai, Hoang Van & Park, Jong Won & Tsai, Ping-Chen & Eom, Cheoljun, 2020. "Lottery mindset, mispricing and idiosyncratic volatility puzzle: Evidence from the Chinese stock market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    13. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2022. "Robust drivers of Bitcoin price movements: An extreme bounds analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    14. Akyildirim, Erdinç & Corbet, Shaen & Cumming, Douglas & Lucey, Brian & Sensoy, Ahmet, 2020. "Riding the Wave of Crypto-Exuberance: The Potential Misusage of Corporate Blockchain Announcements," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    15. Platanakis, Emmanouil & Urquhart, Andrew, 2020. "Should investors include Bitcoin in their portfolios? A portfolio theory approach," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(4).
    16. Flori, Andrea, 2019. "News and subjective beliefs: A Bayesian approach to Bitcoin investments," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 336-356.
    17. Zhao, Xiaojuan & Wang, Ye & Liu, Weiyi, 2024. "Someone like you: Lottery-like preference and the cross-section of expected returns in the cryptocurrency market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    18. Sakkas, Athanasios & Urquhart, Andrew, 2024. "Blockchain factors," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    19. Tzouvanas, Panagiotis & Kizys, Renatas & Tsend-Ayush, Bayasgalan, 2020. "Momentum trading in cryptocurrencies: Short-term returns and diversification benefits," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    20. Dobrynskaya, Victoria, 2024. "Is downside risk priced in cryptocurrency market?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:77:y:2021:i:c:s1057521921001630. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620166 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.