IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecolet/v148y2016icp80-82.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The inefficiency of Bitcoin

Author

Listed:
  • Urquhart, Andrew

Abstract

Bitcoin has received much attention in the media and by investors in recent years, although there remains scepticism and a lack of understanding of this cryptocurrency. We add to the literature on Bitcoin by studying the market efficiency of Bitcoin. Through a battery of robust tests, evidence reveals that returns are significantly inefficient over our full sample, but when we split our sample into two subsample periods, we find that some tests indicate that Bitcoin is efficient in the latter period. Therefore we conclude that Bitcoin in an inefficient market but may be in the process of moving towards an efficient market.

Suggested Citation

  • Urquhart, Andrew, 2016. "The inefficiency of Bitcoin," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 80-82.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:148:y:2016:i:c:p:80-82
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2016.09.019
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165176516303640
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econlet.2016.09.019?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrew W. Lo, A. Craig MacKinlay, 1988. "Stock Market Prices do not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 41-66.
    2. Marie Briere & Kim Oosterlinck & Ariane Szafarz, 2015. "Virtual Currency, Tangible Return: Portfolio Diversification with Bitcoins," Post-Print CEB, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 16(6), pages 365-373.
    3. Selgin, George, 2015. "Synthetic commodity money," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 92-99.
    4. Kristoufek, Ladislav & Vosvrda, Miloslav, 2014. "Commodity futures and market efficiency," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 50-57.
    5. David, Géraldine & Oosterlinck, Kim & Szafarz, Ariane, 2013. "Art market inefficiency," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(1), pages 23-25.
    6. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 2002. "Research in emerging markets finance: looking to the future," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 429-448, December.
    7. Cheah, Eng-Tuck & Fry, John, 2015. "Speculative bubbles in Bitcoin markets? An empirical investigation into the fundamental value of Bitcoin," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 32-36.
    8. Rainer Böhme & Nicolas Christin & Benjamin Edelman & Tyler Moore, 2015. "Bitcoin: Economics, Technology, and Governance," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 29(2), pages 213-238, Spring.
    9. Choi, In, 1999. "Testing the Random Walk Hypothesis for Real Exchange Rates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(3), pages 293-308, May-June.
    10. Adrian (Wai-Kong) Cheung & Eduardo Roca & Jen-Je Su, 2015. "Crypto-currency bubbles: an application of the Phillips-Shi-Yu (2013) methodology on Mt. Gox bitcoin prices," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(23), pages 2348-2358, May.
    11. C. Baek & M. Elbeck, 2015. "Bitcoins as an investment or speculative vehicle? A first look," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(1), pages 30-34, January.
    12. Fry, John & Cheah, Eng-Tuck, 2016. "Negative bubbles and shocks in cryptocurrency markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 343-352.
    13. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    14. Dyhrberg, Anne Haubo, 2016. "Hedging capabilities of bitcoin. Is it the virtual gold?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 139-144.
    15. Kim, Jae H., 2009. "Automatic variance ratio test under conditional heteroskedasticity," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 179-185, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Flori, Andrea, 2019. "News and subjective beliefs: A Bayesian approach to Bitcoin investments," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 336-356.
    2. Andrea Flori, 2019. "Cryptocurrencies In Finance: Review And Applications," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 22(05), pages 1-22, August.
    3. Aurelio F. Bariviera & Ignasi Merediz‐Solà, 2021. "Where Do We Stand In Cryptocurrencies Economic Research? A Survey Based On Hybrid Analysis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 377-407, April.
    4. Corbet, Shaen & Lucey, Brian & Urquhart, Andrew & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2019. "Cryptocurrencies as a financial asset: A systematic analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 182-199.
    5. Stefano Martinazzi & Daniele Regoli & Andrea Flori, 2020. "A Tale of Two Layers: The Mutual Relationship between Bitcoin and Lightning Network," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-18, December.
    6. Cynthia Weiyi Cai & Rui Xue & Bi Zhou, 2023. "Cryptocurrency puzzles: a comprehensive review and re-introduction," Journal of Accounting Literature, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 46(1), pages 26-50, June.
    7. Parthajit Kayal & Purnima Rohilla, 2021. "Bitcoin in the economics and finance literature: a survey," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(7), pages 1-21, July.
    8. Greg W. Hunter & Craig Kerr, 2019. "Virtual Money Illusion and the Fundamental Value of Non-Fiat Anonymous Digital Payment Methods," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 25(2), pages 151-164, May.
    9. Toan Luu Duc Huynh, 2019. "Spillover Risks on Cryptocurrency Markets: A Look from VAR-SVAR Granger Causality and Student’s-t Copulas," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-19, April.
    10. Haffar, Adlane & Le Fur, Éric, 2022. "Time-varying dependence of Bitcoin," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 211-220.
    11. Nikolaos A. Kyriazis, 2019. "A Survey on Efficiency and Profitable Trading Opportunities in Cryptocurrency Markets," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-17, April.
    12. Fousekis, Panos & Tzaferi, Dimitra, 2021. "Returns and volume: Frequency connectedness in cryptocurrency markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 13-20.
    13. Corbet, Shaen & Katsiampa, Paraskevi & Lau, Chi Keung Marco, 2020. "Measuring quantile dependence and testing directional predictability between Bitcoin, altcoins and traditional financial assets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    14. Bouri, Elie & Gupta, Rangan & Lahiani, Amine & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2018. "Testing for asymmetric nonlinear short- and long-run relationships between bitcoin, aggregate commodity and gold prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 224-235.
    15. Michael Demmler & Amilcar Orlian Fernández Domínguez, 2021. "Bitcoin and the South Sea Company: A comparative analysis," Revista Finanzas y Politica Economica, Universidad Católica de Colombia, vol. 13(1), pages 197-224, March.
    16. Dyhrberg, Anne H. & Foley, Sean & Svec, Jiri, 2018. "How investible is Bitcoin? Analyzing the liquidity and transaction costs of Bitcoin markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 140-143.
    17. Kurka, Josef, 2019. "Do cryptocurrencies and traditional asset classes influence each other?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 38-46.
    18. Manahov, Viktor & Urquhart, Andrew, 2021. "The efficiency of Bitcoin: A strongly typed genetic programming approach to smart electronic Bitcoin markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    19. Gil-Alana, Luis Alberiko & Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Rojo, María Fátima Romero, 2020. "Cryptocurrencies and stock market indices. Are they related?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    20. Zhou, Siwen, 2018. "Exploring the Driving Forces of the Bitcoin Exchange Rate Dynamics: An EGARCH Approach," MPRA Paper 89445, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bitcoin; Market efficiency; Cryptocurrency; Random walk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:148:y:2016:i:c:p:80-82. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.