IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v60y2024ics1544612323012369.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Testing the credibility of crypto influencers: An event study on Bitcoin

Author

Listed:
  • Meyer, Eva Andrea
  • Welpe, Isabell M.
  • Sandner, Philipp

Abstract

Against widespread investment advice, crypto-asset retail investors try to yield superior investment returns by ‘crypto-asset picking’ or market timing. One group fueling such aspirations is that of crypto influencers on YouTube conducting crypto market analyses. We are the first to test the value of such analyses for retail investors, by deriving short-term Bitcoin price analyses from a sample of seven influencers with each more than 300,000 subscribers over a one-year time frame. Both, viewer-gathered data from overall 4607 analyzed videos as well as software-based sentiment data do not suggest that those influencers are correct in their market analyses. We conclude by strongly advising the large audience of such YouTube crypto influencers to refrain from adapting any investment advice.

Suggested Citation

  • Meyer, Eva Andrea & Welpe, Isabell M. & Sandner, Philipp, 2024. "Testing the credibility of crypto influencers: An event study on Bitcoin," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:60:y:2024:i:c:s1544612323012369
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2023.104864
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612323012369
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2023.104864?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Moser, Stefanie & Brauneis, Alexander, 2023. "Should you listen to crypto YouTubers?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    2. Simon Trimborn & Mingyang Li & Wolfgang Karl Härdle, 2020. "Investing with Cryptocurrencies—a Liquidity Constrained Investment Approach," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 18(2), pages 280-306.
    3. Jiang, Wei, 2003. "A nonparametric test of market timing," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 399-425, September.
    4. Gerritsen, Dirk F. & Bouri, Elie & Ramezanifar, Ehsan & Roubaud, David, 2020. "The profitability of technical trading rules in the Bitcoin market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    5. Liu, Weiyi, 2019. "Portfolio diversification across cryptocurrencies," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 200-205.
    6. Robert Hudson & Andrew Urquhart, 2021. "Technical trading and cryptocurrencies," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 297(1), pages 191-220, February.
    7. Armitage, Seth, 1995. "Event Study Methods and Evidence on Their Performance," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(1), pages 25-52, March.
    8. Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Mbarki, Imen & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain, 2021. "Predictive role of online investor sentiment for cryptocurrency market: Evidence from happiness and fears," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 496-514.
    9. Brad Barber & Reuven Lehavy & Maureen McNichols & Brett Trueman, 2001. "Can Investors Profit from the Prophets? Security Analyst Recommendations and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 531-563, April.
    10. Brandvold, Morten & Molnár, Peter & Vagstad, Kristian & Andreas Valstad, Ole Christian, 2015. "Price discovery on Bitcoin exchanges," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 18-35.
    11. Kraaijeveld, Olivier & De Smedt, Johannes, 2020. "The predictive power of public Twitter sentiment for forecasting cryptocurrency prices," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    12. Tim Loughran & Bill Mcdonald, 2011. "When Is a Liability Not a Liability? Textual Analysis, Dictionaries, and 10‐Ks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(1), pages 35-65, February.
    13. Meyer, Eva Andrea & Sandner, Philipp & Cloutier, Bernard & Welpe, Isabell M., 2023. "High on Bitcoin: Evidence of emotional contagion in the YouTube crypto influencer space," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cynthia Weiyi Cai & Rui Xue & Bi Zhou, 2023. "Cryptocurrency puzzles: a comprehensive review and re-introduction," Journal of Accounting Literature, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 46(1), pages 26-50, June.
    2. Bennett, Donyetta & Mekelburg, Erik & Strauss, Jack & Williams, T.H., 2024. "Unlocking the black box of sentiment and cryptocurrency: What, which, why, when and how?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    3. Gerritsen, Dirk F. & Lugtigheid, Rick A.C. & Walther, Thomas, 2022. "Can Bitcoin Investors Profit from Predictions by Crypto Experts?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA).
    4. Jiqian Wang & Feng Ma & Elie Bouri & Yangli Guo, 2023. "Which factors drive Bitcoin volatility: Macroeconomic, technical, or both?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(4), pages 970-988, July.
    5. Yousaf, Imran & Youssef, Manel & Goodell, John W., 2022. "Quantile connectedness between sentiment and financial markets: Evidence from the S&P 500 twitter sentiment index," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    6. Oehler, Andreas & Schmitz, Jonas Tobias, 2021. "Does intensified communication of hedge funds with letters affect abnormal returns?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 127-142.
    7. Moreno, David & Antoli, Marcos & Quintana, David, 2022. "Benefits of investing in cryptocurrencies when liquidity is a factor," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    8. Frijns, Bart & Huynh, Thanh D., 2018. "Herding in analysts’ recommendations: The role of media," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 1-18.
    9. A. V. Biju & Aparna Merin Mathew & P. P. Nithi Krishna & M. P. Akhil, 2022. "Is the future of bitcoin safe? A triangulation approach in the reality of BTC market through a sentiments analysis," Digital Finance, Springer, vol. 4(4), pages 275-290, December.
    10. Almeida, José & Gonçalves, Tiago Cruz, 2023. "A systematic literature review of investor behavior in the cryptocurrency markets," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    11. Ante, Lennart & Fiedler, Ingo & Strehle, Elias, 2021. "The impact of transparent money flows: Effects of stablecoin transfers on the returns and trading volume of Bitcoin," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    12. Kumar Kulbhaskar, Anamika & Subramaniam, Sowmya, 2023. "Breaking news headlines: Impact on trading activity in the cryptocurrency market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    13. Aysan, Ahmet Faruk & Caporin, Massimiliano & Cepni, Oguzhan, 2024. "Not all words are equal: Sentiment and jumps in the cryptocurrency market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    14. Machado, André & Lima, Fabiano Guasti, 2021. "Sell-side analyst reports and decision-maker reactions: Role of heuristics," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    15. Wang, Jying-Nan & Liu, Hung-Chun & Hsu, Yuan-Teng, 2024. "A U-shaped relationship between the crypto fear-greed index and the price synchronicity of cryptocurrencies," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    16. Süssmuth, Bernd, 2019. "Bitcoin and Web Search Query Dynamics: Is the price driving the hype or is the hype driving the price?," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203566, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    17. Thierry Warin & Aleksandar Stojkov, 2021. "Machine Learning in Finance: A Metadata-Based Systematic Review of the Literature," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-31, July.
    18. Li, Yi & Urquhart, Andrew & Wang, Pengfei & Zhang, Wei, 2021. "MAX momentum in cryptocurrency markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    19. Leonardo Fernandez, 2012. "Price Discovery, Investor Distraction and Analyst Recommendations Under Continuous Disclosure Requirements in Australia," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1-2012, January-A.
    20. Svetoslav Borisov, 2024. "Bitcoin – Hedge or Speculative Asset: Analysis of Its Role and Nature," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 5, pages 148-170.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:60:y:2024:i:c:s1544612323012369. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.