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Identifying Complex Dynamics in Social Systems

Author

Listed:
  • Viktoria Spaiser
  • Peter Hedström
  • Shyam Ranganathan
  • Kim Jansson
  • Monica K. Nordvik
  • David J. T. Sumpter

Abstract

It is widely recognized that segregation processes are often the result of complex nonlinear dynamics. Empirical analyses of complex dynamics are however rare, because there is a lack of appropriate empirical modeling techniques that are capable of capturing complex patterns and nonlinearities. At the same time, we know that many social phenomena display nonlinearities. In this article, we introduce a new modeling tool in order to partly fill this void in the literature. Using data of all secondary schools in Stockholm county during the years 1990 to 2002, we demonstrate how the methodology can be applied to identify complex dynamic patterns like tipping points and multiple phase transitions with respect to segregation. We establish critical thresholds in schools’ ethnic compositions, in general, and in relation to various factors such as school quality and parents’ income, at which the schools are likely to tip and become increasingly segregated.

Suggested Citation

  • Viktoria Spaiser & Peter Hedström & Shyam Ranganathan & Kim Jansson & Monica K. Nordvik & David J. T. Sumpter, 2018. "Identifying Complex Dynamics in Social Systems," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 47(2), pages 103-135, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:somere:v:47:y:2018:i:2:p:103-135
    DOI: 10.1177/0049124116626174
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Martin Söderström & Roope Uusitalo, 2010. "School Choice and Segregation: Evidence from an Admission Reform," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 112(1), pages 55-76, March.
    2. Bowden,Roger J. & Turkington,Darrell A., 1990. "Instrumental Variables," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521385824, October.
    3. Strulik, Holger, 1999. "Demographic Transition, Stagnation, and Demoeconomic Cycles in a Model for the Less Developed Economy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 397-413, April.
    4. Anderies, John M., 2003. "Economic development, demographics, and renewable resources: a dynamical systems approach," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(2), pages 219-246, May.
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