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Economic development, demographics, and renewable resources: a dynamical systems approach

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  • Anderies, John M.

Abstract

Many developing economies are faced with growing populations and deteriorating natural resources. It is often argued that economic growth will arrest these trends via cleaner technology and social change accompanied by reduced birth rates. Two questions arise: (1) What general economic, demographic, and ecological conditions favor this scenario? and (2) What adjustments, technological, demographic, or ecological, are more important in realizing this scenario? I address these questions using a two-sector growth model which includes human demographics and a renewable resource base. Using powerful numerical bifurcation techniques and rescaling arguments, I obtain the following general results. If the regeneration rate of the renewable resource base is slow relative to the rate of economic growth, population overshoot and resource collapse is more likely. Demographic adjustments are more important than technological adjustments in avoiding renewable resource degradation. Several related results are presented that support these general findings.

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  • Anderies, John M., 2003. "Economic development, demographics, and renewable resources: a dynamical systems approach," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(2), pages 219-246, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:endeec:v:8:y:2003:i:02:p:219-246_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Roman, Sabin & Palmer, Erika & Brede, Markus, 2018. "The Dynamics of Human–Environment Interactions in the Collapse of the Classic Maya," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 312-324.
    2. Late Lawson & Lawson Late, 2020. "A simple Ricardo-Malthusian model of population, deforestation and biodiversity loss," Working Papers 2020.08, FAERE - French Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.
    3. Maria Winkler-Dworak, 2004. "Food Security, Fertility Differentials and Land Degradation in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Dynamic Framework," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 2(1), pages 227-252.
    4. Woi Sok Oh & Rachata Muneepeerakul, 2019. "How do substitutability and effort asymmetry change resource management in coupled natural-human systems?," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 5(1), pages 1-8, December.
    5. Berck, Peter & Levy, Amnon & Chowdhury, Khorshed, 2012. "An analysis of the world's environment and population dynamics with varying carrying capacity, concerns and skepticism," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 103-112.
    6. Takuro Uehara & Yoko Nagase & Wayne Wakeland, 2016. "Integrating Economics and System Dynamics Approaches for Modelling an Ecological–Economic System," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(4), pages 515-531, July.
    7. Lafuite, A.-S. & Loreau, M., 2017. "Time-delayed biodiversity feedbacks and the sustainability of social-ecological systems," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 351(C), pages 96-108.
    8. Eppinga, Maarten B. & de Boer, Hugo J. & Reader, Martin O. & Anderies, John M. & Santos, Maria J., 2023. "Environmental change and ecosystem functioning drive transitions in social-ecological systems: A stylized modelling approach," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    9. Viktoria Spaiser & Peter Hedström & Shyam Ranganathan & Kim Jansson & Monica K. Nordvik & David J. T. Sumpter, 2018. "Identifying Complex Dynamics in Social Systems," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 47(2), pages 103-135, March.
    10. Marc Germain, 2012. "Equilibres et effondrement dans le cadre d'un cycle naturel," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 55(4), pages 427-455.
    11. Nate Kauffman & Kristina Hill, 2021. "Climate Change, Adaptation Planning and Institutional Integration: A Literature Review and Framework," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-28, September.
    12. Chen, Yong & Jayaprakash, Ciriyam & Irwin, Elena G., 2008. "Divergent Time Scales in a Coupled Ecological-Economic Model of Regional Growth," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6195, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    13. Chen, Yong & Irwin, Elena G. & Jayaprakash, Ciriyam, 2009. "Dynamic modeling of environmental amenity-driven migration with ecological feedbacks," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(10), pages 2498-2510, August.
    14. Michel, Philippe, 2021. "Model of neo-Malthusian population anticipating future changes in resources," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 16-31.
    15. Lafuite, A.-S. & Denise, G. & Loreau, M., 2018. "Sustainable Land-use Management Under Biodiversity Lag Effects," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 272-281.
    16. Nagase, Yoko & Uehara, Takuro, 2011. "Evolution of population-resource dynamics models," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 9-17.
    17. Fletcher, C.S. & Hilbert, David W., 2007. "Resilience in landscape exploitation systems," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 201(3), pages 440-452.

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